共聚反应的Monte Carlo模拟和竞聚率的概率估算

本文利用Monte Carlo方法模拟了二元共聚反应的链增长过程,并给出了估计竞聚率的概率统计处理。从统计观点上讲,这是一种在参数空间对每个栅格点计算后验概率密度的Bayesian统计,采用平滑函数对不规则的后验概率密度曲面(PPDS)进行平滑化,从而在置信的95尹。区域评价共聚反应竞聚率(r_1,r_2)。本方法用于计算苯乙烯-丙烯酸丁酯二元共聚反应时,所计算的竞聚率(r_(St),r_(BA))与文献结果甚为一致。

MONTO-CARLO-SIMULATION OF COPOLYMERIZATION REACTION AND PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF KINETIC PARAMETERS

Simulation of chain propagation process of binery polymerization reaction with Monte-Carlo method and statistical probability treatment of estimating kinetic parameters were made. From statistical point of view, this is a Bayesian one in which a posterior probability density surface(PPDS) is calculated for points on a grid in the parameter space. A smoothing function is fitted to the PPDS, then reactivity ratios (r1,r2) are calculated for confidence region. When this method was used to estimate reactivity ratios of styrene-butyl acrylate copolymer,it was in good agreement with that obtained by normal calculating kinetic parameter methed.