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共聚反应的Monte Carlo模拟和竞聚率的概率估算
引用本文:石明孝,裘武军,陈意秋,徐锋. 共聚反应的Monte Carlo模拟和竞聚率的概率估算[J]. 高分子学报, 1991, 0(5)
作者姓名:石明孝  裘武军  陈意秋  徐锋
作者单位:浙江大学分析测试中心,浙江大学分析测试中心,浙江大学应用数学系,浙江大学应用数学系 杭州 310027,杭州 310027,杭州 310027,杭州 310027
摘    要:本文利用Monte Carlo方法模拟了二元共聚反应的链增长过程,并给出了估计竞聚率的概率统计处理。从统计观点上讲,这是一种在参数空间对每个栅格点计算后验概率密度的Bayesian统计,采用平滑函数对不规则的后验概率密度曲面(PPDS)进行平滑化,从而在置信的95尹。区域评价共聚反应竞聚率(r_1,r_2)。本方法用于计算苯乙烯-丙烯酸丁酯二元共聚反应时,所计算的竞聚率(r_(St),r_(BA))与文献结果甚为一致。

关 键 词:Monte Carlo模拟  概率统计处理  竞聚率  苯乙烯-丙烯酸丁酯共聚物

MONTO-CARLO-SIMULATION OF COPOLYMERIZATION REACTION AND PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF KINETIC PARAMETERS
SHI Mingxiao,QUI Wujun. MONTO-CARLO-SIMULATION OF COPOLYMERIZATION REACTION AND PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF KINETIC PARAMETERS[J]. Acta Polymerica Sinica, 1991, 0(5)
Authors:SHI Mingxiao  QUI Wujun
Abstract:Simulation of chain propagation process of binery polymerization reaction with Monte-Carlo method and statistical probability treatment of estimating kinetic parameters were made. From statistical point of view, this is a Bayesian one in which a posterior probability density surface(PPDS) is calculated for points on a grid in the parameter space. A smoothing function is fitted to the PPDS, then reactivity ratios (r1,r2) are calculated for confidence region. When this method was used to estimate reactivity ratios of styrene-butyl acrylate copolymer,it was in good agreement with that obtained by normal calculating kinetic parameter methed.
Keywords:Mont-Cario simulation   Statistical probability treatment reactivity ratio  Styrene-butyl acrylate copolymer
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