北京市道路交通事故致死率的分析与预测

根据北京市道路交通事故的统计资料,以交通事故致死率为指标,对北京市目前道路交通安全情况进行评价.并基于灰色预测理论,建立北京市道路交通事故死亡人数的灰色GM(1,1)预测模型.预测结果显示,北京市未来几年道路交通事故死亡人数虽处于下降趋势,但死亡人数仍在千人左右,平均每起事故死亡人数仍处于上升趋势,道路交通事故致死率仍然偏高.道路交通管理部门应加大惩治道路交通违法行为力度,以控制道路交通事故的严重后果.

Analyse and Prediction On Fatality In Road Traffic Accident of Beijing

Bases on the statistics collected from Beijing road traffic accidents,Analyse On Fatality and estimating traffic safety evaluation In Road Traffic Accident of Beijing.According to the Grey Model theory,building GM(1,1) on number of death.The result of the GM(1,1) forecast can be drawn as follow:in the few coming years,number of death in traffic accident will go beyond one thousand,The average of death toll tends to rise,the road traffic fatality will keep in a high degree although number of death drop.Considering this forecasting result, the road and traffic management department may well prepare for the sudden happenings in advance to keep the serious effect under control.