太湖流域超标特大洪水风险预警系统建设及应用

为做好超标洪水调度、保障流域防洪安全,开发建设了由基于水文水动力学耦合的超警超保风险区域预警模型与基于水文学法的洪水淹涝风险快速评估模型共同组成的超标特大洪水风险预警系统,该系统在太湖流域预报调度一体化系统中通过智能交互方式进行模型与系统的紧密集成,实现了预报调度成果的可视化。基于水利一张图的超警超保与淹涝动态展示,实现了预报产品从点到面、从常规预报到影响预测的突破,以及洪水风险由静态评估向实时快速动态分析的转变。应用结果表明：系统在2020年太湖流域性大洪水中累计发布超警超保风险提示39期、洪水淹涝风险评估4期,预测结果与实际基本一致,为科学调度防御超标洪水提供了技术支撑,避免了江苏省苏州市3万多的人员转移,有力保障了太湖流域防洪安全。     

蚁群算法在水位流量关系拟合中的应用

蚁群算法是一种模拟进化算法,初步研究表明该算法具有许多优良性质.针对传统水位流量关系曲线拟合过程中存在精度不高等问题,应用连续性空间优化问题的蚁群算法模型来拟合水位流量关系,并将该方法与遗传算法及传统的优化方法进行比较.结果表明,蚁群算法具有直观、简便、快速、实用性强等优点,是一种较为优秀的全局优化方法.     

Isotope Zusammensetzung Der Mineralwässer Der Mongolei

Abstract

The isotopic composition (D, ¹⁸O, ⁸⁷Sr, ³He) of thermal and mineral waters of Mongolia is discussed. The Sr-isotope ratio depends on the rock's contact. Near the Chubsugul-lake ³He-/⁴He-values are high. A certain similarity between the waters of Mongolia and those of East Siberia can be derived from the obtained data.     

基于改进的两参数月水量平衡模型的月径流模拟

对熊立华等提出的两参数月水量平衡模型进行了分析,辨析了模型参数的物理意义,针对模型计算公式中的不合理之处,对原模型作了改进:首先,考虑到降水和流域前期蓄水量对流域蒸散发的共同作用,将两者同时作为影响因子,构造了新的蒸散发计算公式;其次,根据有关参数的变化范围,用线性函数近似双曲正切函数,改进了月径流量计算公式.运用改进后的模型模拟、验证了北运河通县站控制流域1980~1991年的月径流和蒸散发过程.结果表明,较之原模型,改进后的模型精度更高,月径流计算过程与实测过程拟合效果较好,年内最大洪峰流量相对误差明显减小,模拟的月蒸散发和流域蓄水量过程更加合理.     

福建省水循环要素分析

本文从环境水文学的观点出发,应用水量平衡理论对福建省的水循环进行探讨。分析了福建省水汽输送,降水、蒸发及径流的特性,它们的地理分布和年际变化规律。阐明了水循环诸要素之间的关系以及人类活动对水循环的影响,并对水量供需平衡进行分析。     

Optimal observation network in geostatistics and underground hydrology

Mathematical models and algorithms for the optimal design of data collection for regionalized variables are presented. The topics considered subsume as a special case optimal drilling strategies in hydrology, the mining industries and other geostatistical applications. In these disciplines an optimal design is a critical consideration since data, can only be obtained through an expensive drilling process.The methods given here are based on the theory of regionalized variables and of kriging. The basis of the methods for locating a single additional data point, and for locating multiple points, is the theory of minimizing uncertainty in parameter estimation. That is, the possible locations of additional points must be determined on the basis of surface analysis with respect to the projected costs of obtaining this data.After a summary of basic kriging techniques, four models are discussed. The first deals with the optimal location problem for a single experimental point, and the second, third and fourth models pertain to the case of multiple additional points. (Unfortunately the repeated application of the single-point model leads only to approximations of the global optima, since the global optima are usually unobtainable as a simple sum of the partial optima.) In the second model, an optimal regular observation network is to be designed to minimize the uncertainty of the estimation process subject to either the given number of additional data, or an upper bound for the cost of the additional data. In the fourth model, the number or cost of additional points is minimized subject to bounded uncertainty conditions. Finally, a numerical example will be used to illustrate the models and algorithms.     

A 15-year record of seasonal variation in the isotopic composition of precipitation water over continental Portugal

The Nuclear and Technological Institute (Instituto Tecnológico e Nuclear—ITN) in cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been conducting a nationwide survey of hydrogen (²H/¹H) and oxygen (¹⁸O/¹⁶O) isotopic composition of monthly precipitation since 1988. This paper focuses on basic features of spatial and temporal distribution of δ¹⁸O and δ²H in the precipitation over Continental Portugal derived from ITN database. Phenomenological relationships between stable isotopes composition of precipitation and various climate-related parameters (local air temperature, distance to the Atlantic coast, altitude, amount of precipitation) are established and discussed.     

水文系统预算编制工作的实践及建议

阐述了水文系统部门预算的具体编制方法,针对部门预算编制工作中存在的问题提出了相应的建议。     

A probability distribution for precipitation data analysis

Hydrologic design is often based on assessments of large return interval measures; it is vital to be able to conclude them as precisely as possible. Henceforth, the selection of a probability distribution is very crucial for such cases. In view of this scenario, we propose and study a pliant probability distribution for precipitation data analysis. Some mathematical and statistical properties are analyzed. In order to make stronger predictions and judge the realistic return period, we have also characterized the model via Laplace transformation. We have estimated its parameters via the maximum likelihood estimation and constructed its information matrix for developing the confidence belt of population parameters. Moreover, a real-life setup is also considered by applying the model over precipitation data of diverse regions, including Jacksonville, Florida (USA), Barkhan (Pakistan), British Columbia (Canada), and Alexandria (Egypt). This investigated study is based on various statistical parametric and nonparametric tests, which indicates that the proposed model is one of the better strategies for precipitation data analysis when compared with the famous three-parameter Kappa model.     

Sea and Wind: Multivariate Extremes at Work

Multivariate extreme value theory is used to estimate the probability of failure of a sea-wall near the town of Petten in Noord Holland, The Netherlands. The sample consists of 828 observations of still water levels and wave heights collected during storm events over a 13-year period. The paper sketches the probabilistic and statistical theory behind the estimation procedures used. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.