The effects of the non-breaking surface wave-induced vertical mixing on the forecast of tropical cyclone tracks

The Weather Research and Forecasting model(WRF)is configured for the region of(15°–41°N,105°–135°E),which covers the same area with the MASNUM(Key Lab.Marine ScienceNumerical Modeling,State Oceanic Administration)wave-tide-circulation coupled operational forecast system.Three numerical experiments are implemented to investigate the effects of the real-time forecasted sea surface temperature(SST)and the nonbreaking wave-induced vertical mixing(Bv)on the track forecast of all 33 tropical cyclones(TC)in the model domain area during 2008 and 2011.The first experiment employs NCEP FNL(NCEP final analysis)SST as WRF’s bottom condition as the Control run,which is also the default setup of WRF.The second and third experiments use real-time forecasted SST from the MASNUM forecast system with and without Bv,respectively.The forecasted track results are compared with Japan Meteorological Agency’s best track data.For 24-h forecast,the averaged TC position error of Experiment with Bv is reduced by 9%compared to the Control experiment,while the forecasted track error of Experiment without Bv is reduced by only2%compared to the Control experiment.For the 48-h forecast,the averaged track errors are reduced by 10%and6%with Bv and without Bv compared to the Control experiment,respectively.These results suggest that the real-time forecasted SST can improve the performance of WRF in forecasting TC track,and the Bv plays an important role in reducing the forecast error of TC track.Comparatively,Bv can improve more on the track of stronger TC.     

太阳米粒组织目标特性对望远镜相关跟踪系统的影响

研究太阳目标特性对太阳望远镜相关跟踪图像稳定系统的影响,采用Hinode太阳光学望远镜的观测数据,对以2min为时间间隔采样的5幅太阳米粒组织图像进行相关计算.针对国家天文台正在研制的空间太阳望远镜(SST)主光学望远镜(MOT)相关跟踪图像稳定系统,分析了太阳米粒组织随时间衍化对相关跟踪系统图像移动计算精度的影响以及米粒组织动态变化对望远镜曝光时间的影响.仿真结果表明,更换参考图像时间不能大于2min,并且在保证算法实时性的情况下,选用参考图像的尺寸与相关跟踪系统定位精度成正比.     

中纬度海温异常与环流变化的数值模拟

本文采用二维纬向平均模式,通过模拟试验,研究西太平洋中纬度海域海温异常对环流变化以及我国东部江淮、华北平原汛期降水的影响。按季节不同把海温异常分为南冷北暖型和南暖北冷型。结果表明前期海温异常,其后3—5个月西太平洋副高位置明显变化。例如,春季南冷北暖型异常分布(20°—35°N偏冷,35°N以北偏暖)则夏季副高增强,其脊线位置偏北,长江流域夏季(7—8月)偏旱,而华北地区偏涝。反之,得到相反的结果。     

南海表面海温异常对南海季风影响的数值模拟

采用P-σ混合坐标系区域气候模式模拟了4－7月南海季风的爆发、演变过程，并进行了3组敏感性数值试验，研究南海表面海温异常对南海季风的影响，得到以下结论：（1）南海4月份海温异常对南海季风的爆发日期影响不大，但对季风爆发后的强度有所影响，异常增温造成南海季风增强，异常降温则南海季风减弱。（2）南海季风爆发和强度的变化与南海本身的海温变化情况有密切的关系，尤其是5月份南海海温异常。5月份南海异常增温可以使南海季风提前爆发，季风增强，南海海温异常降低时，南海季风爆发的时间推迟，季风减弱。（3）南海海温持续异常可以影响南海及中国大陆的高低空环流变化，海温持续异常增温可以使南海季风提前爆发，显地加强南海季风，并有利于南海季风向北推进，但当海温在6月份进一步持续增温时，则有利于季风维持在较南地区，阻碍季风向北发展；当海温持续异常降低时，南海季风推迟爆发，且明显减弱。     

西北太平洋部分海域AVHRR、TMI与MODIS遥感海表层温度的初步验证

选取[10～35°N,110～165°E]的西北太平洋海域,利用2002年7月～2005年12月Argo浮标数据对AVHRR/MODIS/TMI SST的daily（升轨）数据进行验证.结果表明：AVHRR/MODIS/TMI daily SST与Argo浮标5～6 m层温度总体的均方差rms在0.6～0.9℃,平均偏差bias在-0.2～0.2℃,平均绝对偏差bias_abs在0.3～0.7℃.这与三传感器全球范围的SST反演目标相当,说明在本区域SST反演不存在显著偏差.各遥感SST与浮标温度的差异存在季节变化,夏季偏高,很可能与夏季垂直混合较弱,比对采用的实测水温与海表温度差距较大有关.在3种遥感SST中,TMISST偏离实测值的程度最高,且偏离范围较大.作者认为这与该区域黑潮经过,产生诸多涡旋和锋面,SST时空变化剧烈而TMI空间分辨率较低有关.本研究将为此西北太平洋海域的多源SST融合提供一个比较可靠的依据.     

技术与社会之间关系的SST解读——兼评“技术的社会形成”理论

技术的社会形成理论是在批判技术决定的基础上产生的。它赋予社会的因素在技术的形成过程中的重要作用,强调技术与社会之间的互惠关系,从而避免了技术决定论和社会决定论的片面性与极端性,更接近与技术与社会之间的客观情况。从技术的社会形成理论对技术决定论的批判中以及技术的选择和技术创新等层面,分析了SST语境中的技术与社会之间的关系。     

基于LPC2214的Flash存储器的应用

介绍了Flash存储器K9F5608U0C和SST39VF160的特性,给出了微处理器LPC2214与它们的硬件连接电路图,以及对它们进行读、写、擦除等操作的应用软件.     

改性SST固化剂在高等级公路工程中的应用研究

介绍了国内外高等级公路工程中应用ＳＳＴ固化剂施工的基本情况，着重介绍自行开发的改性ＳＳＴ固化剂的改性技术、机理分析、工艺要领与工程质量数据，并作出了技术经济评估。     

门式刚架厂房表面风压的数值模拟研究

基于Reynolds时均N—S方程和SST模型,对一低层双坡门式刚架结构的表面风压进行CFD数值模拟,并将模拟结果与风洞试验结果进行比较．根据模拟结果对门式刚架结构各表面的风压分布特性进行了分析和归纳,可为该类建筑的抗风设计提供参考．     

RANS and LES computations of the tip-leakage vortex for different gap widths

In hydraulic turbines, the tip-leakage vortex is responsible for flow instabilities and for promoting erosion due to cavitation. To better understand the tip vortex flow, Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) and large eddy simulation (LES) computations are carried out to simulate the flow around a NACA0009 blade including the gap between the tip and the wall. The main focus of the study is to understand the influence of the gap width on the development of the tip vortex, as for instance its trajectory. The RANS computations are performed using the open source solver OpenFOAM 2.1.0, two incidences and five gaps are considered. The LESs are achieved using the YALES2 solver for one incidence and two gaps.

The validation of the results is performed by comparisons with experimental data available downstream the trailing edge. The position of the vortex core, the mean velocity and the mean axial vorticity fields are compared at three different downstream locations. The results show that the mean behaviour of the tip vortex is well captured by the RANS and LES computations compared to the experiment. The LES results are also analysed to bring out the influence of the gap width on the development of the tip-leakage vortex. Finally, a law that matches the vortex trajectory from the leading edge to the mid-chord is proposed. Such a law can be helpful to determine, in case of cavitation, if the tip vortex will interact with the walls and cause erosion.