论提高足球裁判员判罚犯规的准确性

足球裁判员是足球比赛场上的组织者和法官.裁判员的执法水平,直接影响着足球比赛的质量.对犯规准确性的判罚是衡量裁判员水平的重要标准.通过对影响裁判员判罚诸多因素的分析,找出不利裁判员准确判罚的重要因素加以研究,对提高我国足球裁判员水平有着重要的促进作用.     

AHP中专家判断信息的提取及一致性调整的方法

本探讨了层次分析法中专家判断信息的提取以及判断矩阵一致性调整的一种方法，其主要思想是通过提取专家判断矩阵中具有相关逻辑关系的信息进行比较，从而推断出专家自身较为集中的判断结果，并在此基础上对专家判断矩阵进行一致性调整。该方法既能够对不满足一致性要求的专家判断矩阵进行调整，又保证了调整后的专家矩阵所包含的是专家主要的判断信息。最后以一个算例说明方法的实施过程。     

长波红外无线激光通信脉冲宽度调制实验研究

为实现长波红外无线激光通信,建立了基于脉宽调制的长波红外无线激光通信系统模型,对系统性能进行了分析,给出了系统误码率的计算公式.搭建了实验系统,对CO_2激光器的平均输出光功率随占空比的变化情况进行了分析,对不同占空比条件下接收端对应的激光平均脉冲宽度以及脉冲宽度受噪声影响的随机变化情况进行了分析,得到了激光输出平均光功率、平均脉冲宽度与占空比之间的关系,以及脉宽的分布规律,并将实验结果与理论分析结果进行了对比,在此基础上得到了脉宽最佳判决门限和系统各类工作参数同误码率之间的关系.结果表明,基于CO_2激光器的脉冲宽度调制能够实现长波红外无线激光通信.     

Heterogeneous uncertainties in cholesterol management

Physicians use clinical guidelines to inform judgment about therapy. Clinical guidelines do not address three important uncertainties: (1) uncertain relevance of tested populations to the individual patient, (2) the patient’s uncertain preferences among possible outcomes, and (3) uncertain subjective and financial costs of intervention. Unreliable probabilistic information is available for some of these uncertainties; no probabilities are available for others. The uncertainties are in the values of parameters and in the shapes of functions. We explore the usefulness of info-gap decision theory in patient-physician decision making in managing cholesterol level using clinical guidelines. Info-gap models of uncertainty provide versatile tools for quantifying diverse uncertainties. Info-gap theory provides two decision functions for evaluating alternative therapies. The robustness function assesses the confidence—in light of uncertainties—in attaining acceptable outcomes. The opportuneness function assesses the potential for better-than-anticipated outcomes. Both functions assist in forming preferences among alternatives. Hypothetical case studies demonstrate that decisions using the guidelines and based on best estimates of the expected utility are sometimes, but not always, consistent with robustness and opportuneness analyses. The info-gap analysis provides guidance when judgment suggests that a deviation from the guidelines would be productive. Finally, analysis of uncertainty can help resolve ambiguous situations.     

基于乘性模糊互补判断矩阵的FAHP

根据乘性一致性的定义,从人的主观判断与其权重的函数关系出发,获得了乘性模糊互补判断矩阵的元素表达式,论证了利用乘性模糊互补判断矩阵求取因素相对权重的可行性,最后给出了一种基于乘性一致模糊判断矩阵的排序方法.从而使得乘性模糊互补判断矩阵的应用的理论基础更加坚实.     

区间数互补判断矩阵的拓扑排序方法

提出了方案之间进行比较时优于与劣于的定义,通过构造与区间数互补判断矩阵相对应的有向图的方法,将互补判断矩阵的排序问题转化为有向图中顶点的拓扑排序问题,将有向图中的顶点按照备选方案的重要性顺序输出,得到的顶点的序列即为备选方案的重要性排序,数值计算实例验证了该方法的有效性与可行性。     

一致性互反Fuzzy判断矩阵的传递性

研究矩阵元素为Fuzzy数的互反判断矩阵的传递性质.首先得到了判断两个Fuzzy数近似相等的等价条件,并得到了揭示Fuzzy数的核之间关系的一个充要条件.在此基础上,进一步证明了一致性互反Fuzzy判断矩阵具有传递性的两个结论.这两个结论说明:在层次分析法中,用一致性互反Fuzzy判断矩阵表示一组方案在同一目标下的两两重要性比较是符合理性决策的思维特征的.     

Forecasting with cue information: A comparison of multiple regression with alternative forecasting approaches

Multiple linear regression (MLR) is a popular method for producing forecasts when data on relevant independent variables (or cues) is available. The accuracy of the technique in forecasting the impact on Greek TV audience shares of programmes showing sport events is compared with forecasts produced by: (1) a simple bivariate regression model, (2) three different types of artificial neural network, (3) three forms of nearest neighbour analysis and (4) human judgment. MLR was found to perform relatively poorly. The application of Theil’s bias decomposition and a Brunswik lens decomposition suggested that this was because of its inability to handle complex non-linearities in the relationship between the dependent variable and the cues and its tendency to overfit the in-sample data. Much higher accuracy was obtained from forecasts based on a simple bivariate regression model, a simple nearest neighbour procedure and from two of the types of artificial neural network.     

The affect heuristic

This paper introduces a theoretical framework that describes the importance of affect in guiding judgments and decisions. As used here, “affect” means the specific quality of “goodness” or “badness” (i) experienced as a feeling state (with or without consciousness) and (ii) demarcating a positive or negative quality of a stimulus. Affective responses occur rapidly and automatically—note how quickly you sense the feelings associated with the stimulus word “treasure” or the word “hate”. We argue that reliance on such feelings can be characterized as “the affect heuristic”. In this paper we trace the development of the affect heuristic across a variety of research paths followed by ourselves and many others. We also discuss some of the important practical implications resulting from ways that this heuristic impacts our daily lives.     

“舆论审判”还是“媒体审判”？——理念辨析与解决之道

目前，学界将“舆论审判”与“媒体审判”分别加以讨论并无必要，从舆论学和法理学的视角看，二者没有根本性的差别。“媒体审判”背后实际上是两种理念的冲突：表达自由与司法独立。在中国现实语境中，这两种价值都有保护的必要，因此应当采取有效手段对表达自由和司法独立之间的紧张关系进行平衡，从而建构司法和传媒间的和谐关系。