风险、控制与人力资本投资

研究了公司的破产风险对于员工事前人力资本投入的影响,指出风险的增大必然导致员工对专用性人力资本投入的减少和一般性人力资本投入的增加.员工一旦拥有了控制监督的权利,就会增加公司专用性人力资本的投入,同时减少一般性人力资本的投入.     

邓小平对外开放有关论述与经济全球化问题探索

邓小平关于对外开放的理论 ,不仅明确了中国参与经济全球化的必然性 ,同时也指出了中国在经济全球化进程中所面临的挑战和应对的措施 ,使我们能够积极面对经济全球化的客观趋势 ,采取有力的措施 ,扬长避短 ,抓住机遇 ,迎接挑战 ,变不利为有利 ,在经济全球化竞争中立于不败之地     

Existence of the uniformly minimum risk equivariant estimators of parameters in a class of normal linear models

In this paper, we study the existence of the uniformly minimum risk equivariant (UMRE) estimators of parameters in a class of normal linear models, which include the normal variance components model, the growth curve model, the extended growth curve model, and the seemingly unrelated regression equations model, and so on. The necessary and sufficient conditions are given for the existence of UMRE estimators of the estimable linear functions of regression coefficients, the covariance matrixV and (trV)^α, where α > 0 is known, in the models under an affine group of transformations for quadratic losses and matrix losses, respectively. Under the (extended) growth curve model and the seemingly unrelated regression equations model, the conclusions given in literature for estimating regression coefficients can be derived by applying the general results in this paper, and the sufficient conditions for non-existence of UMRE estimators ofV and tr(V) are expanded to be necessary and sufficient conditions. In addition, the necessary and sufficient conditions that there exist UMRE estimators of parameters in the variance components model are obtained for the first time.     

Signed graphs for portfolio analysis in risk management

We introduce the notion of structural balance for signed graphsin the context of portfolio analysis. A portfolio of securitiescan be represented as a signed graph with the nodes denotingthe securities and the edges representing the correlation betweenthe securities. With signed graphs, the characteristics of aportfolio from a risk management perspective can be uncoveredfor analysis purposes. It is shown that a portfolio characterizedby a signed graph of positive and negative edges that is structurallybalanced is characteristically more predictable. Investors whoundertake a portfolio position with all positively correlatedsecurities do so with the intention to speculate on the upside(or downside). If the portfolio consists of negative edges andis balanced, then it is likely that the position has a hedgingdisposition within it. On the other hand, an unbalanced signedgraph is representative of an investment portfolio which ischaracteristically unpredictable.     

信用担保风险的模糊综合评审研究

信用担保机构是连接银行和企业的桥梁，对于改善企业融资环境和拓展银行业务具有重要意义，信用担保风险的评审是担保机构能否生存及有效运行的关键。信用风险的评审机制主观性强，对担保项目进行客观，公正的评审比较困难。本采用模糊数学中的综合判别方法，全面考虑风险评审所涵盖的各种风险指标及其重要度，建立了定性分析与定量分析方法相结合的信用担保风险综合评审模型，为担保机构提供了一种相对科学、客观的评审方法。     

IFS-BN结合的辐射源威胁评估方法

针对辐射源威胁评估实时性、复杂性和信息不确定性的问题,将直觉模糊集与贝叶斯网络相结合,提出一种基于IFS-BN的辐射源威胁评估方法。IFS-BN算法通过直觉模糊集刻画贝叶斯网络的节点信息,充分描述节点信息的确定性,不确定性以及犹豫度。同时,将直觉模糊集求得的各辐射源先验概率代入贝叶斯网络模型之中,得出后验概率进行威胁等级排序,并在此基础上建立了相应的评估指标体系。仿真分析表明,算法具有较好的可行性与有效性。与经典贝叶斯网络评估方法相比,IFS-BN算法的结果更加客观合理。     

中外商业银行操作风险管理流程比较研究

通过对中外商业银行操作风险管理流程的比较研究，指出我国商业银行与国外商业银行存在的差距和不足，并就我国商业银行如何构筑科学的操作风险管理流程提出若干建议。     

Determination of the portfolio selection for a property-liability insurance company

This paper presents an analysis of a portfolio model which can be used to assist a property-liability insurance company in determining the optimal composition of the insurance and investment portfolios. By introducing insurer's threshold risk and relaxing some non-realistic assumptions made in traditional chance constraint insurance and investment portfolio models, we propose a method for an insurer to maximize his return threshold for a given threshold risk level. This proposed model can be used to optimize the composition of underwriting and investment portfolios regarding the insurer's threshold risk level, as well as to generate the efficient frontier by adjusting insurer's threshold risk levels. A numerical example is given based on the industry's aggregated data for a sixteen year period.     

对传统民法买卖合同风险承担前提的质疑

传统民法将买卖合同风险承担的前提归结为合同的成立。但是在买卖合同成立后生效前，双方当事人并没有确立确定的债权债务关系，也就谈不上风险承担问题。买卖合同风险承担的前提应为合同的生效，只有在合同生效后，才产生确定的债权债务关系，风险承担才有意义。     

带干扰的Erlang(2)风险模型的不破产概率

本文讨论了带干扰的Erlang(2)风险模型,通过构造一个延迟更新过程,我们得到了不破产概率满足的积分-微分方程,进而得到了不破产概率的明确表达式．