IFS-BN结合的辐射源威胁评估方法

针对辐射源威胁评估实时性、复杂性和信息不确定性的问题,将直觉模糊集与贝叶斯网络相结合,提出一种基于IFS-BN的辐射源威胁评估方法。IFS-BN算法通过直觉模糊集刻画贝叶斯网络的节点信息,充分描述节点信息的确定性,不确定性以及犹豫度。同时,将直觉模糊集求得的各辐射源先验概率代入贝叶斯网络模型之中,得出后验概率进行威胁等级排序,并在此基础上建立了相应的评估指标体系。仿真分析表明,算法具有较好的可行性与有效性。与经典贝叶斯网络评估方法相比,IFS-BN算法的结果更加客观合理。     

例析五华话的量词重叠

五华话的量词重叠形式颇有特色,有"从"形式、"一AA哩"形式、"A实A哩"形式。三种重叠形式在句法功能和语法意义方面有一定的差异。     

Neuro-fuzzy approach to processing inputs with missing values in pattern recognition problems

An approach to dealing with missing data, both during the design and normal operation of a neuro-fuzzy classifier is presented in this paper. Missing values are processed within a general fuzzy min–max neural network architecture utilising hyperbox fuzzy sets as input data cluster prototypes. An emphasis is put on ways of quantifying the uncertainty which missing data might have caused. This takes a form of classification procedure whose primary objective is the reduction of a number of viable alternatives rather than attempting to produce one winning class without supporting evidence. If required, the ways of selecting the most probable class among the viable alternatives found during the primary classification step, which are based on utilising the data frequency information, are also proposed. The reliability of the classification and the completeness of information is communicated by producing upper and lower classification membership values similar in essence to plausibility and belief measures to be found in the theory of evidence or possibility and necessity values to be found in the fuzzy sets theory. Similarities and differences between the proposed method and various fuzzy, neuro-fuzzy and probabilistic algorithms are also discussed. A number of simulation results for well-known data sets are provided in order to illustrate the properties and performance of the proposed approach.     

Bayesian Probabilities and the Histories Algebra

We attempt a justification of a generalisation of the consistent histories programme using a notion of probability that is valid for all complete sets of history propositions. This consists of introducing Cox's axioms of probability theory and showing that our candidate notion of probability obeys them. We also give a generalisation of Bayes' theorem and comment upon how Bayesianism should be useful for the quantum gravity/cosmology programmes. PACS: 02.50.Cw;03.65.Ta;04.60.-m.     

Bayesian Object Identification: Variants

We present a Bayesian theory of object identification. Here, identifying an object means selecting a particular observation from a group of observations (variants), this observation (the regular variant) being characterized by a distributional model. In this sense, object identification means assigning a given model to one of several observations. Often, it is the statistical model of the regular variant, only, that is known. We study an estimator which relies essentially on this model and not on the characteristics of the “irregular” variants. In particular, we investigate under what conditions this variant selector is optimal. It turns out that there is a close relationship with exchangeability and Markovian reversibility. We finally apply our theory to the case of irregular variants generated from the regular variant by a Gaussian linear model.     

运用反例基于识别的手写数字串分割

采用基于识别的分割方法进行手写数字串分割.在识别的过程中,运用反例样本估计分类器参数,实验数据表明,这种运用反例样本训练的分类器与没有经过反例样本训练的分类器相比,将提高拒识率到19%左右,从而保证了较高的识别率,验证了只有经过反例训练的分类器的输出结果才是可信赖的.     

Consistency of a myopic Bayesian algorithm for one-dimensional global optimization

A sequential Bayesian method for finding the maximum of a function based on myopically minimizing the expected dispersion of conditional probabilities is described. It is shown by example that an algorithm that generates a dense set of observations need not converge to the correct answer for some priors on continuous functions on the unit interval. For the Brownian motion prior the myopic algorithm is consistent; for any continuous function, the conditional probabilities converge weakly to a point mass at the true maximum.     

平方损失下区间有界的位置参数函数极小极大估计

给出了位置参数θ区间有界时，函数ｈ（θ的极小极大估计存在的一个充分条件，并据此对一些分布的参数估计进行了讨论。     

最大似然方法和Bayes方法在结构方程模型分析中的讨论(英文)

本文通过模拟研究,讨论了最大似然方法和Bayes方法在分析结构方程模型中的相似点和不同之处。     

Reference priors for exponential families with simple quadratic variance function

Reference analysis is one of the most successful general methods to derive noninformative prior distributions. In practice, however, reference priors are often difficult to obtain. Recently developed theory for conditionally reducible natural exponential families identifies an attractive reparameterization which allows one, among other things, to construct an enriched conjugate prior. In this paper, under the assumption that the variance function is simple quadratic, the order-invariant group reference prior for the above parameter is found. Furthermore, group reference priors for the mean- and natural parameter of the families are obtained. A brief discussion of the frequentist coverage properties is also presented. The theory is illustrated for the multinomial and negative-multinomial family. Posterior computations are especially straightforward due to the fact that the resulting reference distributions belong to the corresponding enriched conjugate family. A substantive application of the theory relates to the construction of reference priors for the Bayesian analysis of two-way contingency tables with respect to two alternative parameterizations.