Small Stress Change Triggering a Big Earthquake： a Test of the Critical Point Hypothesis for Earthquakes

Whether or not a small stress change can trigger a big earthquake is one of the most important problems related to the critical point hypothesis for earthquakes. We investigate global earthquakes with different focM mechanisms which have different levels of ambient shear stress. This ambient stress level is the stress level required by the earthquakes for their occurrence. Earthquake pairs are studied to see whether the occurrence of the preceding event encourages the occurrence of the succeeding one in terms of the Coulomb stress triggering. It is observed that the stress triggering effect produced by the change of Coulomb failure stress in the same order of magnitudes,about 10-2 MPa, is distinctly different for different focal mechanisms, and thus for different ambient stress levels.For non-strike-slip earthquakes with a relatively low ambient stress level, the triggering effect is more evident,while for strike-slip earthquakes with a relatively high ambient stress level, there is no evident triggering effect.This water level test provides an observational support to the critical point hypothesis for earthquakes.     

我国地震预测成绩的回顾与统计

地震预测预报的难度大，但并非了无痕迹或不可知，我国每次较大的地震都有案例总结。统计表明，近４０ 年来，有７７ 次地震在发生前均有中期、短期甚至临震预测，不能因为汶川地震预测的失败，就全面抹杀中国的地震预报成绩，即我国的地震预测成绩是应予肯定的，汶川地震也并非是无前兆的“怪震”。     

澜沧—耿马大震前后尾波Q值的研究

本文根据Aki的尾波散射理论,对澜沧-耿马大震前后近10年的时间,在大震区域及外围的7个地震台近2000多张地震记录图的尾波进行测量,得出Q值随时间变化的结果表明:澜沧、耿马两次大震前有1～3年左右的低Q值异常期;在临近大震前1年左右,Q值处于回升阶段;震后Q值明显增大.并结合澜沧-耿马地区区域地质构造图,试图分析Q值在断层错动中随时间变化的特征;澜沧、耿马7.6、7.2级两次大震是分别孕育的双主震并且可能是澜沧7.6级大震的发生触发了耿马7.2级大震的发生。     

灰色生成研究及其在地震预报中的应用

根据模糊聚类分析方法,结合灰色系统理论研究了其在地震预报中的应用.给出了一种新的灰色生成,并在此基础上给出了一种综合预测模型.作为应用实例,对华北地区(30°～42°N,108°～125°E)地震进行了建模和预测.根据模型检验精度等指标说明所建模型可靠、精确.     

Earthquake forecast via neutrino tomography

We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for ν_e emitted from a reactor. The case for a ν_e beam from a neutrino factory is also investigated, and it is noted that, because of the typically high energy associated with such neutrinos, the oscillation length is too large and the resultant variation is not practically observable. Our conclusion is that with the present reactor facilities and detection techniques, it is still a difficult task to make an earthquake forecast using such a scheme, though it seems to be possible from a theoretical point of view while ignoring some uncertainties. However, with the development of the geology, especially the knowledge about the fault zone, and with the improvement of the detection techniques, etc., there is hope that a medium-term earthquake forecast would be feasible.     

发挥应急预案的防震减灾作用

由于地震灾害的突发性特点，以及地震预报的难度和现实水平，防御和减轻地震灾害在很大程度上取决于地震应急工作是否及时、有效。从国内外对一些震例的处理可以看出，应急工作不及时、不恰当会引起相当的混乱，从而加重地震灾害。如1999年8月17日土耳其7．8级地震，16000多人死亡。     

地震预报的新途径--加卸载响应比理论

从力学角度看,地震的孕育过程实质上是孕震区介质的损伤演化过程,这个过程主要是一个力学过程．但解决与地震预测有关的力学问题与工程中的力学问题有许多不同之处．通常力学问题的解决需要知道其本构关系、边界条件、初始条件以及某些力学量的变化历史(如流变)．但是在地震孕育过程中它们却是未知的或不完全知道的．人们知道的只是地壳中某些物理量的变化．由此提出了加卸载响应比作为一种地震预测的新途径,并简述了加卸载响应比的基本概念、实际应用及一些最新结果．     

电流积分提高电离法测氡的灵敏度

采用积分电流电离法测氡结果表明：当氡气剂量很低时，在给定时内将十分微弱的电流积分，大大地提高了测定的灵敏度，可测得剂量为1Bq以下的氡气，与常用的FD－125氡钍分仪的比较实验数据相对误差不超过5％。