An automated patient monitoring using discrete‐time wireless sensor networks

In recent years, Internet of Things (IoT) devices are used for remote health monitoring. For remotely monitoring a patient, only the health information at different time points are not sufficient; predicted values of biomarkers (for some future time points) are also important. In this article, we propose a powerful statistical model for an efficient dynamic patient monitoring using wireless sensor nodes through Bayesian Learning (BL). We consider the setting where a set of correlated biomarkers are measured from a patient through wireless sensors, but the sensors only report the ordinal outcomes (say, good, fair, high, or very high) to the sink based on some prefixed thresholds. The challenge is to use the ordinal outcomes for monitoring and predicting the health status of the patient under consideration. We propose a linear mixed model where interbiomarker correlations and intrabiomarker dependence are modeled simultaneously. The estimated and the predicted values of the biomarkers are transferred over the internet so that health care providers and the family members of the patient can remotely monitor the patient. Extensive simulation studies are performed to assess practical usefulness of our proposed joint model, and the performance of the proposed joint model is compared to that of some other traditional models used in the literature.     

Bayesian Probabilities and the Histories Algebra

We attempt a justification of a generalisation of the consistent histories programme using a notion of probability that is valid for all complete sets of history propositions. This consists of introducing Cox's axioms of probability theory and showing that our candidate notion of probability obeys them. We also give a generalisation of Bayes' theorem and comment upon how Bayesianism should be useful for the quantum gravity/cosmology programmes. PACS: 02.50.Cw;03.65.Ta;04.60.-m.     

Bayesian Object Identification: Variants

We present a Bayesian theory of object identification. Here, identifying an object means selecting a particular observation from a group of observations (variants), this observation (the regular variant) being characterized by a distributional model. In this sense, object identification means assigning a given model to one of several observations. Often, it is the statistical model of the regular variant, only, that is known. We study an estimator which relies essentially on this model and not on the characteristics of the “irregular” variants. In particular, we investigate under what conditions this variant selector is optimal. It turns out that there is a close relationship with exchangeability and Markovian reversibility. We finally apply our theory to the case of irregular variants generated from the regular variant by a Gaussian linear model.     

Consistency of a myopic Bayesian algorithm for one-dimensional global optimization

A sequential Bayesian method for finding the maximum of a function based on myopically minimizing the expected dispersion of conditional probabilities is described. It is shown by example that an algorithm that generates a dense set of observations need not converge to the correct answer for some priors on continuous functions on the unit interval. For the Brownian motion prior the myopic algorithm is consistent; for any continuous function, the conditional probabilities converge weakly to a point mass at the true maximum.     

最大似然方法和Bayes方法在结构方程模型分析中的讨论(英文)

本文通过模拟研究,讨论了最大似然方法和Bayes方法在分析结构方程模型中的相似点和不同之处。     

Enhancing cognitive radio systems with robust reasoning

Cognitive radio systems dynamically reconfigure the algorithms and parameters they use, in order to adapt to the changing environment conditions. However, reaching proper reconfiguration decisions presupposes a way of knowing, with high enough assurance, the capabilities of the alternate configurations, especially in terms of achievable transmission capacity and coverage. The present paper addresses this problem, firstly, by specifying a complete process for extracting estimations of the capabilities of candidate configurations, in terms of transmission capacity and coverage, and, secondly, by enhancing these estimations with the employment of a machine learning technique. The technique is based on the use of Bayesian Networks, in conjunction with an effective learning and adaptation strategy, and aims at extracting and exploiting knowledge and experience, in order to reach robust (i.e. stable and reliable) estimations of the configurations' capabilities. Comprehensive results of the proposed method are presented, in order to validate its functionality. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reference priors for exponential families with simple quadratic variance function

Reference analysis is one of the most successful general methods to derive noninformative prior distributions. In practice, however, reference priors are often difficult to obtain. Recently developed theory for conditionally reducible natural exponential families identifies an attractive reparameterization which allows one, among other things, to construct an enriched conjugate prior. In this paper, under the assumption that the variance function is simple quadratic, the order-invariant group reference prior for the above parameter is found. Furthermore, group reference priors for the mean- and natural parameter of the families are obtained. A brief discussion of the frequentist coverage properties is also presented. The theory is illustrated for the multinomial and negative-multinomial family. Posterior computations are especially straightforward due to the fact that the resulting reference distributions belong to the corresponding enriched conjugate family. A substantive application of the theory relates to the construction of reference priors for the Bayesian analysis of two-way contingency tables with respect to two alternative parameterizations.     

无失效数据的Bayes和多层Bayes分析

本文推广了文献[6]的结果，对指数分布无失效数据的失效率，给出了Bayes估计、Bayes置信上限以及多层Bayes估计，从而可以得到无失效数据可靠度的估计，最后，结合实际问题进行了计算。     

Global Optimal Image Reconstruction from Blurred Noisy Data by a Bayesian Approach

In this paper, a procedure is presented which allows the optimal reconstruction of images from blurred noisy data. The procedure relies on a general Bayesian approach, which makes proper use of all the available information. Special attention is devoted to the informative content of the edges; thus, a preprocessing phase is included, with the aim of estimating the jump sizes in the gray level. The optimization phase follows; existence and uniqueness of the solution is secured. The procedure is tested against simple simulated data and real data.     

A Monte Carlo method for an objective Bayesian procedure

This paper describes a method for an objective selection of the optimal prior distribution, or for adjusting its hyper-parameter, among the competing priors for a variety of Bayesian models. In order to implement this method, the integration of very high dimensional functions is required to get the normalizing constants of the posterior and even of the prior distribution. The logarithm of the high dimensional integral is reduced to the one-dimensional integration of a cerain function with respect to the scalar parameter over the range of the unit interval. Having decided the prior, the Bayes estimate or the posterior mean is used mainly here in addition to the posterior mode. All of these are based on the simulation of Gibbs distributions such as Metropolis' Monte Carlo algorithm. The improvement of the integration's accuracy is substantial in comparison with the conventional crude Monte Carlo integration. In the present method, we have essentially no practical restrictions in modeling the prior and the likelihood. Illustrative artificial data of the lattice system are given to show the practicability of the present procedure.