故障树分析法及其应用

介绍了故障树分析法的基本原理及其应用实例，并利用c语言来解决可靠性问题。从实验中，获得了值得借鉴的经验。     

中智自由贸易协定全面实施对双方经济影响研究:基于GTAP模型仿真

基于GTAP模型,结合Walmsley等递归动态法,就《中智自由贸易协定》全面实施对双方在贸易规模、贸易结构、双边贸易、GDP、生产格局和福利水平等方面产生的经济效应进行仿真.研究结果显示,双方贸易规模及产出水平明显扩大;国内资源分配格局有所改变,贸易结构处于较快的变动中;两国GDP有所增长,双边贸易显著增强,社会福利明显改善;中国贸易条件相对恶化,农产品所受负面冲击有限,高级化服务业发展迅速;智利制造业受益匪浅,产业结构趋于相对平衡;双方利益让渡不一致,福利所得分配不等,智利所受的经济影响要明显大于中国,而中国的动态比较利益会使其福利所得明显高于智利.     

机载紫外告警仪的故障树分析

分析了机载紫外告警仪系统的可靠性,建立了该系统的故障树模型,并从定性和定量方面分析了模型,最后分析了系统的重要度。     

企业系统安全分析FTA模型应用

本文应用故障树分析法（FTA）对合肥钢铁公司薄板厂生产系统进行安全分析，提出了改进意见，为系统安全提供了决策依据。     

模糊技术在可靠性工程中的应用

本文主要介绍模糊集合理论和技术在可靠性工程中的应用现状及其发展趋势，尤其是在系统故障诊断，故障树分析（ＦＴＡ）系统可靠性分配，人的可靠性，软件可靠性，结构可靠性以及系统安全性工程中的应用和技术关键，并从工程应用的需要出发针对存在问题预测和提出各种解决途径。     

基于故障树和BP网络的飞控系统可靠性分析

文中针对不同批次飞行器控制系统在使用过程中的可靠度的差异问题,提出一种新的可靠度预测分析方法,该方法的思路为,首先使用故障树分析法分析出不同批次飞行器控制系统出厂时的可靠性,再根据不同批次飞行器控制系统在使用过程中的可靠度历史数据,运用BP神经网络的方法对数据进行分析处理,建立了飞行器控制系统＂出厂时部件级和系统级可靠度＂与＂使用过程中不同年限可靠度＂之间的联系与变化关系,即在统计出部件级可靠度的情况下,通过＂故障树分析法＂和＂BP神经网络分析法＂结合的方法,可以得出飞行器控制系统的可靠度,以及预测出飞行器控制系统使用过程中不同年限的可靠度。     

中国−东盟自由贸易协定和中国企业生产率

本文考察了中国−东盟自贸区关税削减政策对中国工业企业全要素生产率的影响。通过利用2005年货物贸易协定作为突破口,从行业和企业两个层面探讨了贸易自由化对全要素生产率增长的影响,支持了两种异质企业模型：一个模型将企业生产率作为外生变量,降低贸易成本,使得产业内资源再配置从而提高行业整体生产率;另一个是模型将企业生产率内生化,并在模型中增加采用技术的固定成本,降低贸易成本可以让企业采用更高的技术提高生产率。研究发现：（1）中国−东盟自贸区的关税削减政策使得低生产率企业更容易退出,高生产率非出口企业更容易进入出口市场,当前的出口企业扩大出口销售,从而实现行业内部资源再分配,行业整体生产率水平提升;（2）该政策对专利采用有积极的影响,因为较低的贸易成本导致较高的企业盈利,这是企业层面生产率增长的重要机制。     

FPGA-based Monte Carlo simulation for fault tree analysis

The reliability analysis of critical systems is often performed using fault-tree analysis. Fault trees are analyzed using analytic approaches or Monte Carlo simulation. The usage of the analytic approaches is limited in few models and certain kinds of distributions. In contrast to the analytic approaches, Monte Carlo simulation can be broadly used. However, Monte Carlo simulation is time-consuming because of the intensive computations. This is because an extremely large number of simulated samples may be needed to estimate the reliability parameters at a high level of confidence.In this paper, a tree model, called Time-to-Failure tree, has been presented, which can be used to accelerate the Monte Carlo simulation of fault trees. The time-to-failure tree of a system shows the relationship between the time to failure of the system and the times to failures of its components. Static and dynamic fault trees can be easily transformed into time-to-failure trees. Each time-to-failure tree can be implemented as a pipelined digital circuit, which can be synthesized to a field programmable gate array (FPGA). In this way, Monte Carlo simulation can be significantly accelerated. The performance analysis of the method shows that the speed-up grows with the size of the fault trees. Experimental results for some benchmark fault trees show that this method can be about 471 times faster than software-based Monte Carlo simulation.     

包含双边投资规范的自由贸易协定网络

当今国际经济趋势表明,包含投资规范的双边自由贸易协定(bilateral FTAs)受到了越来越多国家的欢迎。通过假定双边自由贸易协定包含着无限制对外直接投资规范,基于Goyal和Joshi(2006)^[1],本文构建了相应FTA网络形成博弈模型。本文发现:(1)星状FTA网络是两两稳定的;(2)从空FTA网络到星状FTA网络存在一条个体国家福利和世界福利都严格改善的路径。     

Characterization of forsythoside A metabolites in rats by a combination of UHPLC‐LTQ‐Orbitrap mass spectrometer with multiple data processing techniques

Forsythoside A (FTA), the main active constituent isolated from Fructus Forsythiae, has various biological functions including anti‐oxidant, anti‐viral and anti‐microbial activities. However, while research on FTA has been mainly focused on the treatment of diseases on a material basis, FTA metabolites in vivo have not been comprehensively evaluated. Here, a rapid and sensitive method using a UHPLC‐LTQ‐Orbitrap mass spectrometer with multiple data processing techniques including high‐resolution extracted ion chromatograms, multiple mass defect filters and diagnostic product ions was developed for the screening and identification of FTA metabolites in rats. As the result, a total of 43 metabolites were identified in biological samples including 42 metabolites in urine, 22 metabolites in plasma and 15 metabolites in feces. These results demonstrated that FTA underwent a series of in vivo metabolic reactions including methylation, dimethylation, sulfation, glucuronidation, diglucuronidation, cysteine conjugation and their composite reactions. The research enhanced our understanding of FTA metabolism and built a foundation for further toxicity and safety studies.