Comparison of two models for managing reliability growth during product design

Relying on reliability growth testing to improve system designis neither usually effective nor efficient. Instead it is importantto design in reliability. This requires models to estimate reliabilitygrowth in the design that can be used to assess whether goalreliability will be achieved within the target timescale forthe design process. Many models have been developed for analysisof reliability growth on test, but there has been much lessattention given to reliability growth in design. This paperdescribes and compares two models: one motivated by the practicalengineering process; the other by extending the reasoning ofstatistical reliability growth modelling. Both models are referencedin the recently revised edition of international standard IEC61164. However, there has been no reported evaluation of theirproperties. Therefore, this paper explores the commonalitiesand differences between these models through an assessment oftheir logic and their application to an industrial example.Recommendations are given for the use of reliability growthmodels to aid management of the design process and to informproduct development.     

抽样调查中最佳测量次数的确定

现场抽样调查中，由于测量误差的存在，使得所测变量实测值的方差增大，通过增加每个体的测量次数可以控制测量误差，但这样每个体调查费用增大。本文对测量信度Ｒ，每个体测量次数ｍ与相应所需的样本含量ｎｍ、调查费用Ｔｎ的关系进行了探讨，并介绍了如何根据Ｒ，及每个体测量费用占其总费用构成比Ｃ，确定最佳测量次数ｍ值，以达到最佳控制调查费用的目的，这对我们在大型现场调查中进行经济效益分析具有重大的理论指导意义。     

串联系统可靠性虚拟系统法置信下限的小样本性质

本文讨论了具有r个成败型元件串联系统可靠性的置信下限问题。研究了虚拟系统法置信下限的小样本性质,证明了,在通常情况下虚拟系统法置信下限要大于常见的L-M法置信下限.更一般地,本文证明了在成败型试验中,当成功数与试验数之比保持不变时,试验次数的增加将直接缩小成功率置信区间的长度。     

Practical stopping criteria for validating safety-critical software by estimating impartial reliability

In this research, we investigate stopping rules for software testing and propose two stopping rules from the aspect of software reliability testing based on the impartial reliability model. The impartial reliability difference (IRD-MP) rule considers the difference between the impartial transition-probability reliabilities estimated for both software developer and consumers at their predetermined prior information levels. The empirical–impartial reliability difference (EIRD-MP) rule suggests stopping a software test when the computed empirical transition reliability is tending to its estimated impartial transition reliability. To insure the high-standard requirement for safety-critical software, both rules take the maximum probability (MP) of untested paths into account.     

Robustness and exponentiality in redundant repairable systems

A redundant system of independent repairable components with general failure time and repair time distributions is considered. It is shown that the system failure time has an expectation dependent only on the mean failure times and mean repair times of the components and not on their distributions. An intuitive argument is provided, based on the time of onset of the quasi-stationary distribution on the set of working states, to show that for highly reliable systems, the system failure time is exponentially distributed to good approximation. The argument also justifies a simple figure of merit for the quality of the exponential approximation. A key ingredient in the analysis is the system relaxation time, an informal review of which is provided.     

火工品可靠性试验数据的综合分析方法

升降法试验数据和固定刺激量下的成败型试验数据,是两种最常见的火工品可靠性试验数据．我们应用Markov链,研究了升降法试验数据下,感度分布参数的极大似然估计的特性．在此基础上,应用Bootstrap方法和Bayes方法,给出了综合分析两种试验数据的方法．最后,将该方法应用于520底火的可靠性鉴定,得出了有益的结论．     

多约束下的串、并联混合系统可靠度与冗余度的优化判定模型及算法

本文给出了单目标多约束下串、并联混合系统中 ,由选取重要单元 (重要度最大的单元 )的方法 ,来提高系统可靠度的有效优化判定模型及算法 ,用同样思想给出了串、并联系统中冗余度的优化判定模型及算法     

动态模糊随机信息处理的数学方法

本文系统地概述了我们近年来提出的动态模糊随机信息处理的数学方法,内容包括模糊随机变量、模糊随机过程和模糊随机微分方程的基本解法等方面的基本概念、基本定义和某些重要的定理,以及动态系统的模糊随机响应与可靠性分析的方法等。这些方法是为我们研究工程实际问题的需要逐步发展起来的,对于处理某些类型的问题简便实用。     

基于可靠性的相位去包裹算法

提出了一种新的基于可靠性的相位去包裹算法。采用了队列算法及去包裹可靠性的判别标准。与传统方法相比,能够自动避开噪声区域,解决了相位去包裹中的阴影遮挡以及空洞等问题,克服了传统去包裹方法中的误差传播效应,能准确快速地对全场进行相位去包裹。设计了一套基于此算法的三维形面测量系统。     

基于累积损伤过程的不完全预防维护决策

基于累积损伤过程研究旧系统的不完全预防维护策略,冲击服从非时齐Poisson过程,并产生随机的损伤量,损伤量是加法累加的.系统在累积损伤量达到k或系统运行年龄达到T时进行计划内预防维护.在两次计划内预防维护之间,当累积损伤量达到预定水平K (k K)时,对系统进行计划外维护,其费用高于计划内预防维护,利用再生过程理论得到单位时间维护成本,讨论在时齐Poisson过程下的时间预防维护策略与水平预防维护策略,同时给出算例.