Attenuation and depolarization of millimeter waves due to incoherent scattering in tropical rainfall

The radiative transfer equation has been applied to investigate the effects of multiple scattering on communication at the millimeter wavelength in tropical rain. Horizontal linearly polarized incident waves are assumed. The scattering characteristics are calculated using the Mie theory at frequencies of 16, 34.8, 82, 140 and and at rainfall rates of 12.5, 50 and . Some results of the directional patterns of the incoherent intensities at various points in the rain medium are presented. The frequency dependence of the propagation distance, attenuation coefficient and the variation of incoherent specific intensities in tropical rainfall are investigated. The incoherent power at the receiver relative to the coherent power, which is important in assessing the quality of signal in the receiver, is also investigated. It is observed that the maximum incoherent copolarized received power is about in tropical rainfall at rainfall rate. Also the difference between the copolarized incoherent power in tropical and temperate rainfall is about at frequencies higher than , and about for the cross-polarized incoherent power components. It may therefore be safely said that multiple scattering may not result in serious degradation of the coherent wave component even in the most intense tropical precipitation. It also appears that it is independent of regional rainfall climatology.     

Heavy tailed durations of regional rainfall

Durations of rain events and drought events over a given region provide important information about the water resources of the region. Of particular interest is the shape of upper tails of the probability distributions of such durations. Recent research suggests that the underlying probability distributions of such durations have heavy tails of hyperbolic type, across a wide range of spatial scales from 2 km to 120 km. These findings are based on radar measurements of spatially averaged rain rate (SARR) over a tropical oceanic region. The present work performs a nonparametric inference on the Pareto tail-index of wet and dry durations at each of those spatial scales, based on the same data, and compares it with conclusions based on the classical Hill estimator. The results are compared and discussed. The authors express sincere thanks to the Mathematisches Forschungsinstitut Oberwolfach (MFO) for facilitating their collaboration under a “Research in Pairs” project hosted at MFO during March 5–25, 2006. The research of the second and third authors was supported by the project LC06024.     

Effects of rainfall infiltration on deep slope failure

With the finite element method and the limit equilibrium method, a numerical model has been established for examining the effects of rainfall infiltration on the stability of slopes. This model is able to availably reflect the variations in pore pressure field in slopes, dead weight of soil, and the softening of soil strength caused by rainfall infiltration. As a case study, an actual landslide located at the Nongji Jixiao in Chongqing is studied to analyze the effects of rainfall infiltration on the seepage field and the slope stability. The simulated results show that a deep slope failure is prone to occur when rainfall infiltration will lead to a remarkable variation in the seepage field, in particular, for large range pore water pressure increase in slopes. Supported by the Knowledge Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KJCX2-SW-L1-4) and the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (Grant No. 2002CB412703)     

再探武汉地区雨强分维数随时间变化

对武汉大学电波综合观测站于１９９１年的降雨曲线进行测量，当采样时间为５ｍｉｎ时，用单变量雨强时间序列进一步研究了降雨这一大气过程中雨强分维数随时间的变化特性．结果表明，在灾害性降雨天气前后其雨强分维数仍然发生了显著性的改变．     

遗传算法BP神经网络的预报研究和应用

针对目前 BP神经网络在实际气象预报应用中 ,网络结构难以确定以及网络极易陷入局部解问题 ,用遗传算法优化神经网络的连接权和网络结构 ,并在遗传进化过程中采取保留最佳个体的方法 ,建立基于遗传算法的 BP网络模型 ,并以广西的月降水量进行实例分析 ,计算结果表明 ,该方法预报精度高、而且稳定 .     

Models for Stationary Max-Stable Random Fields

Models for stationary max-stable random fields are revisited and illustrated by two-dimensional simulations. We introduce a new class of models, which are based on stationary Gaussian random fields, and whose realizations are not necessarily semi-continuous functions. The bivariate marginal distributions of these random fields can be calculated, and they form a new class of bivariate extreme value distributions.     

基于极值理论的中国台风降水分布不确定性分析

以浙江温州站点为例,对5种极值模型模拟台风降水极值累积概率分布的方法进行了详细阐述,并分析不同极值模型的差异;对全国748个气象观测站点的1951—2005年所有台风事件的降水及概率进行了系统分析,结果表明Weibull分布模拟中国台风极值降水整体检验效果最佳;定量探讨了Weibull分布与其他分布模型在台风降水强度-概率分布上的定量差异及采用不同分布模型可能造成的台风降水概率分布不确定性.     

Stable isotope study of precipitation and cave drip water in Florida (USA): implications for speleothem-based paleoclimate studies†

Stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen were used to examine how the isotopic signal of meteoric water is modified as it travels through soil and epikarst into two caves in Florida. Surface and cave water samples were collected every week from February 2006 until March 2007. The isotopic composition of precipitation at the investigated sites is highly variable and shows little seasonal control. The δ¹⁸O vs. δ²H plot shows a mixing line having a slope of 5.63, suggesting evaporation effects dominate the isotopic composition of most rainfall events of less than 8 cm/day, as indicated by their low d-excess values. The δ¹⁸O values of the drip water show little variability (<0.6‰), which is loosely tied to local variations in the seasonal amount of precipitation. This is only seen during wintertime at the Florida Caverns site.

The lag time of over two months and the lack of any relationship between rainfall amount and the increase in drip rate indicate a dominance of matrix flow relative to fracture/conduit flow at each site. The long residence time of the vadose seepage waters allows for an effective isotopic homogenisation of individual and seasonal rainfall events. We find no correlation between rainfall and drip water δ¹⁸O at any site. The isotopic composition of drip water in both caves consistently tends to resemble the amount-weighted monthly mean rainfall input. This implies that the δ¹⁸O of speleothems from these two caves in Florida cannot record seasonal cycle in rainfall δ¹⁸O, but are suitable for paleoclimate reconstructions at inter-annual time scales.? Revised version of a paper presented at the 9th, Symposium of the European Society for Isotope Research (ESIR), 23 to 28 June 2007, Cluj-Napoca, Romania.      

湿斜压热动力耦合强迫激发辐合增长和暴雨维持的一种机制

打破将散度演化分析局限于水平动力学框架内的传统认识思维,针对大气的斜压性与层结特征将对大气运动散度场演化产生显著影响的事实,从湿斜压原始方程出发,将大气的斜压热力作用通过热力学方程引入散度方程,在替换平衡近似（alternative balance）下,导出了显式包含湿非地转Q矢量与垂直风切变耦合强迫作用的新型散度方程.阐明了潮湿大气中非地转斜压强迫激发散度场演化的物理机制,为利用常规观测资料诊断散度场演化提供了一种有效的数学工具.通过对流层中低层气柱内总体辐合增长影响因子的分 关键词： 暴雨天气 散度演变 正压非平衡强迫 湿斜压热动力耦合强迫     

降雨对无线激光通信的影响

通过激光信号在雨介质中传输的实验发现,在大雨环境下,激光信号透射率要比在小雨或微雨的情况下大。这说明光信号在小雨时衰减较大,在大雨时衰减较小。这一现象与人们通常所认为的有所不同。针对降雨对激光信号的影响,根据Mie散射理论和Weibull雨滴尺寸分布模型,分析了不同尺寸的粒子对光的散射作用以及对衰减效率因子的影响,推导出单球粒子对光波的衰减公式,得到了衰减与降雨率的确定关系。通过数值计算发现,与小粒子相比大粒子的前向散射光强更大且更加集中;激光信号在雨介质中传输时,衰减系数在小雨时较大,中雨、大雨时较小,暴雨时不断增大。这一结果与实际情况较吻合,为激光在通信系统中的应用提供了一定的理论依据。