Students’ Reasoning About One-Object Stochastic Phenomena in an ICT-Environment

This paper focuses on the different ways in which students in lower secondary school (14–16 year olds) experience compound random events, presented to them in the form of combined junctions. A carefully designed ICT environment was developed enabling the students to interact with different representations of such structures. Data for the analysis was gathered from two interview sessions. The analysis of the interaction is based on constructivist principles on learning; i.e. we adopted a student-oriented perspective, taking into consideration the different ways students try to make sense of chance encounters. Our results show how some students give priority to geometrical and physical concerns, and we discuss how seeking causal explanations of random phenomena may have encouraged this. With respect to numerically oriented models a division strategy appears to stand out as the preferred one.     

Extreme fluxes in solar energetic particle events: Methodological and physical limitations

In this study, all available data on the largest solar proton events (SPEs), or extreme solar energetic particle (SEP) events, for the period from 1561 up to now are analyzed. Under consideration are the observational, methodological and physical problems of energy-spectrum presentation for SEP fluxes (fluences) near the Earth's orbit. Special attention is paid to the study of the distribution function for extreme fluences of SEPs by their sizes. The authors present advances in at least three aspects: 1) a form of the distribution function that was previously obtained from the data for three cycles of solar activity has been completely confirmed by the data for 41 solar cycles; 2) early estimates of extremely large fluences in the past have been critically revised, and their values were found to be overestimated; and 3) extremely large SEP fluxes are shown to obey a probabilistic distribution, so the concept of an “upper limit flux” does not carry any strict physical sense although it serves as an important empirical restriction. SEP fluxes may only be characterized by the relative probabilities of their appearance, and there is a sharp break in the spectrum in the range of large fluences (or low probabilities). It is emphasized that modern observational data and methods of investigation do not allow, for the present, the precise resolution of the problem of the spectrum break or the estimation of the maximum potentialities of solar accelerator(s). This limitation considerably restricts the extrapolation of the obtained results to the past and future for application to the epochs with different levels of solar activity.     

Contamination of therapeutic human immunoglobulin preparations with apolipoprotein H (β2‐glycoprotein I)

Polyclonal immunoglobulin (Ig) concentrates are important biological medicinal products and the assurance of their quality and safety is crucial. In our present approach we used proteomic methods to check the purity of commercial Ig products of different origin. The experimental setup included nonreducing 2DE or DIGE combined with MALDI‐TOF and the thrombin generation assay, a routine safety test for pharmaceutical Ig preparations, and was complemented by a specific immunoassay. 2DE patterns displayed contaminations with trace amounts of human apolipoprotein H (Apo‐H), transferrin, albumin, and its fragments. In contrast to the latter, Apo‐H is a protein that is active in the coagulation cascade, and thus a potential involvement in thromboembolic events in vivo cannot be excluded. It was found by 2DE and MALDI‐TOF to be a contaminant of several Ig preparations. Spiking experiments of Ig preparations with pure Apo‐H demonstrated an Apo‐H concentration dependent increase in thrombin generation assay values. Traces of Apo‐H are possibly also contributing to unwanted side effects, as already known for factor XIa. The significance of Apo‐H contaminations for these side effects might be verified by detailed analyses of pharmacovigilance data.     

基于CEEMD的重大事件对香港住宅价格影响的实证分析

应用互补集成经验模态分解（CEEMD）方法对香港1997―2018年的住宅价格月度数据进行了分解,将经过重构后的数据分成高频序列、低频序列与残差项。将BP多断点检测应用于低频序列,并结合样本时段内的重大事件进行实证分析。结果表明：1997年亚洲金融风暴对房价的影响大于2008年金融危机;外部经济体的救市政策间接地影响香港房价;在经济不景气的大环境下“孙九招”政策没有立即见效;资本投资者入境计划、住房供给调整与按揭贷款调整对房价的影响较为显著;税收调整对房价影响不显著、对交易量影响显著;SARS爆发使住宅价格下降约1%。     

A Continuous-Time Random Walk Extension of the Gillis Model

We consider a continuous-time random walk which is the generalization, by means of the introduction of waiting periods on sites, of the one-dimensional non-homogeneous random walk with a position-dependent drift known in the mathematical literature as Gillis random walk. This modified stochastic process allows to significantly change local, non-local and transport properties in the presence of heavy-tailed waiting-time distributions lacking the first moment: we provide here exact results concerning hitting times, first-time events, survival probabilities, occupation times, the moments spectrum and the statistics of records. Specifically, normal diffusion gives way to subdiffusion and we are witnessing the breaking of ergodicity. Furthermore we also test our theoretical predictions with numerical simulations.     

突发事件下应急物资多目标优化调度模型与算法研究：以新冠肺炎疫情为例

突发事件下应急物资调度具有高度不确定性与动态性,应急物资跨区域调度计划能否科学合理制定对应急救援的有效开展具有重要影响。以武汉市新冠肺炎疫情为例,考虑应急物资跨区域调配的时效差异、地域分散以及资金消耗等要素,建立多周期下包含软硬需求时间窗约束的多物资品种、运输方式的跨区域三级动态物资调度网络模型,并设计一种带变异操作的动态变惯性权重自适应粒子群算法(VDCWPSO),利用疫情算例验证该算法的有效性和可行性。研究结果表明,在保障应急物资供应时效性、公平性、经济性原则下,物资跨区域调度可以缓解资源严重短缺状况、提高医用物资利用率,研究可为突发事件下应急物资调度计划的制定与动态调整提供决策支持。     

Classification of Dansgaard–Oeschger climatic cycles by the application of similitude signal processing

In this work we have performed a detailed analysis, using signal processing tools, to study time series of data (temperature proxy) extracted from the GRIP ice-core records and we relate it with the evolution of atmospheric CO₂ within the last glacial period. Our method is based in considering the warm periods known as Dansgaard–Oeschger (D/O) events and posterior returns to the cold stage as a climatic cycle. After the warming phase, D/O events relax to the initial cold state in three different ways, what gives rise to three classes of cycles. Also, the Younger/Dryas–Bolling/Allerod (Y/D–B/A) cycle corresponds to one of the classes obtained. We have found that all cycles start with identical warming phases which seem completely unrelated to variations in CO₂ concentration. We discuss on the consequences for global climatology of such steady pattern of cycles.     

Adaptive‐numerical‐bias metadynamics

A metadynamics scheme is presented in which the free energy surface is filled with progressively adding adaptive biasing potentials, obtained from the accumulated probability distribution of the collective variables. Instead of adding Gaussians with assigned height and width in conventional metadynamics method, here we add a more realistic adaptive biasing potential to the Hamiltonian of the system. The shape of the adaptive biasing potential is adjusted on the fly by sampling over the visited states. As the top of the barrier is approached, the biasing potentials become wider. This decreases the problem of trapping the system in the niches, introduced by the addition of Gaussians of fixed height in metadynamics. Our results for the free energy profiles of three test systems show that this method is more accurate and converges more quickly than the conventional metadynamics, and is quite comparable (in accuracy and convergence rate) with the well‐tempered metadynamics method. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.