Properties of large-scale TIDs observed in Central China

This paper investigates the large scale travelling ionospheric disturbances (LSTIDs) using the observation data of an HF Doppler array located in Central China. The data observed in a high solar activity year (year 1989) are analyzed to obtain the main propagation parameters of LSTIDs such as period, horizontal phase velocity and propagating direction. Results are outlined as follows: Most of the LSTIDs propagate southward; others tend to propagate northward, mostly in summer; dispersion of most LSTIDs is matched with that of Lamb pseudomode, while others have the dispersion of long period gravity wave mode. The horizontal phase velocities of these two modes are about 220 and 450 m/s respectively. The analysis shows that LSTIDs are strongly pertinent to solar activity and space magnetic storms; thus the results presented here are significant for the research of ionospheric weather in mid-low latitude region.     

Interpolation on spherical geodesic grids: A comparative study

Most operational models in atmospheric physics, meteorology and climatology nowadays adopt spherical geodesic grids and require “ad hoc” developed interpolation procedures. The author does a comparison between chosen representatives of linear, distance-based and cubic interpolation schemes outlining their advantages and drawbacks in this specific application field. Numerical experiments on a standard test problem, while confirming a good performance of linear and distance-based schemes in a single interpolation step, also show their minor accuracy with respect to the cubic scheme in the more realistic simulation of advection of a meteorological field.     

Position-space renormalization for systems with weak long-range interactions and the breakdown of hyperscaling

Exact renormalization group equations are derived for a position-space renormalization of spin systems with weak long-range forces. It is shown how an apparent dependence of the critical exponents on the choice of the renormalization group can be resolved via the mechanism of dangerous irrelevant variables and that this same mechanism is responsible for the breakdown of hyperscaling. The dimensiond=4 can be seen to be a borderline dimension above which classical critical exponents are expected.     

Extreme fluxes in solar energetic particle events: Methodological and physical limitations

In this study, all available data on the largest solar proton events (SPEs), or extreme solar energetic particle (SEP) events, for the period from 1561 up to now are analyzed. Under consideration are the observational, methodological and physical problems of energy-spectrum presentation for SEP fluxes (fluences) near the Earth's orbit. Special attention is paid to the study of the distribution function for extreme fluences of SEPs by their sizes. The authors present advances in at least three aspects: 1) a form of the distribution function that was previously obtained from the data for three cycles of solar activity has been completely confirmed by the data for 41 solar cycles; 2) early estimates of extremely large fluences in the past have been critically revised, and their values were found to be overestimated; and 3) extremely large SEP fluxes are shown to obey a probabilistic distribution, so the concept of an “upper limit flux” does not carry any strict physical sense although it serves as an important empirical restriction. SEP fluxes may only be characterized by the relative probabilities of their appearance, and there is a sharp break in the spectrum in the range of large fluences (or low probabilities). It is emphasized that modern observational data and methods of investigation do not allow, for the present, the precise resolution of the problem of the spectrum break or the estimation of the maximum potentialities of solar accelerator(s). This limitation considerably restricts the extrapolation of the obtained results to the past and future for application to the epochs with different levels of solar activity.     

A non-Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model for pricing wind power futures

The recent introduction of wind power futures written on the German wind power production index has brought with it new interesting challenges in terms of modelling and pricing. Some particularities of this product are the strong seasonal component embedded in the underlying, the fact that the wind index is bounded from both above and below and also that the futures are settled against a synthetically generated spot index. Here, we consider the non-Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck type processes proposed by Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard in the context of modelling the wind power production index. We discuss the properties of the model and estimation of the model parameters. Further, the model allows for an analytical formula for pricing wind power futures. We provide an empirical study, where the model is calibrated to 37 years of German wind power production index that is synthetically generated assuming a constant level of installed capacity. Also, based on 1 year of observed prices for wind power futures with different delivery periods, we study the market price of risk. Generally, we find a negative risk premium whose magnitude decreases as the length of the delivery period increases. To further demonstrate the benefits of our proposed model, we address the pricing of European options written on wind power futures, which can be achieved through Fourier techniques.     

Adaptive modeling, adaptive data assimilation and adaptive sampling

For efficient progress, model properties and measurement needs can adapt to oceanic events and interactions as they occur. The combination of models and data via data assimilation can also be adaptive. These adaptive concepts are discussed and exemplified within the context of comprehensive real-time ocean observing and prediction systems. Novel adaptive modeling approaches based on simplified maximum likelihood principles are developed and applied to physical and physical–biogeochemical dynamics. In the regional examples shown, they allow the joint calibration of parameter values and model structures. Adaptable components of the Error Subspace Statistical Estimation (ESSE) system are reviewed and illustrated. Results indicate that error estimates, ensemble sizes, error subspace ranks, covariance tapering parameters and stochastic error models can be calibrated by such quantitative adaptation. New adaptive sampling approaches and schemes are outlined. Illustrations suggest that these adaptive schemes can be used in real time with the potential for most efficient sampling.     

湿有效能量预报暴雨的动力分析

根据7个例子的对比分析表明:湿有效能量对预报暴雨具有较好的指示性,但在某些条件下湿有效能量在有无暴雨发生两者上并无明显差别。对暴雨和无暴雨个例的动力条件分析表明:(1)有暴雨时,在杭州地区为一个相对辐散区(300—900百帕),并伴有较强的上升运动,无暴雨时则为相对辐合区;(2)暴雨时高空有一支强的急流,暴雨区位于高空发散流场和急流中心的入口区右侧。(3)稳定度大小两者也有明显差异。分析结果对业务预报有一定参考价值。     

黄河下游堤防地质险段研究

由地质作用影响形成的易出险堤段称为地质险段 ,主要包括活断层作用影响形成的堤基易渗漏段、强地震高发区段和地基稳定性差段等。构造节点是识别地质险段的重要的河流地貌标志之一。根据成因 ,本文将黄河下游的地质险段分为三类 ,即新构造险段、沉降险段、断裂复活险段。针对黄河下游堤防地质特征 ,圈定出东坝头、大刘屯—董口黄河南岸和路那里—十里堡黄河南岸地质险段 ,提出了治理的有关措施     

地质工程计算机辅助设计支持系统及其应用

地质工程设计具有非结构化、非参数化、非规范化特征,同时,也具有“风险与优化”性和“反馈与可变更”性。仅用一种固定的、程式化的求解方法是不现实的。因此,必须寻求一种非结构化的工具,根据问题的需要,面向目标自动生成求解结构。本文归纳了地质工程设计的基本内容,探讨了基于几何和基于人工智能的计算机辅助地质工程设计。最后,介绍了地质工程设计支持系统在长江三峡链子崖危岩治理工程设计中的应用。     

嵌岩桩桩端承载力探讨

以往嵌岩桩的试验资料表明,当上覆岩土层较薄、嵌岩桩的入岩深度较小时,嵌岩桩的极限端承力对桩的承载能力起主导作用。为求出桩端极限承载力的表达式,本文将嵌岩段以上岩土层自重视为作用在基岩半平面上的均布荷载,把桩端合力分解为相对简单的荷载作用于基岩平面上,利用滑移线理论并通过叠加的方法分析出桩端基岩破坏时的最危险点。然后根据Mindlin课题求出该点的应力,运用Griffith准则的Murrell推广导出桩端极限承载力的公式,并指出了此公式的适用范围。最后结合工程实际进行了对比分析,表明本文方法具有一定的实用性。