排序方式: 共有29条查询结果,搜索用时 31 毫秒
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本文通过对有效需求一物价指数统计模型的研究 ,估计出了有效需求方程 ,并且通过对模型的估计结果分析得出如下结论 :物价指数对有效需求的影响是显著的 :通货紧缩、物价指数持续走低是有效需求不足的主要原因 ,治理通货紧缩应该是解决我国有效需求不足的主要任务。 相似文献
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Financial and economic time series forecasting has never been an easy task due to its sensibility to political, economic and social factors. For this reason, people who invest in financial markets and currency exchange are usually looking for robust models that can ensure them to maximize their profile and minimize their losses as much as possible. Fortunately, recently, various studies have speculated that a special type of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) called Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) could improve the predictive accuracy of the behavior of the financial data over time. This paper aims to forecast: (i) the closing price of eight stock market indexes; and (ii) the closing price of six currency exchange rates related to the USD, using the RNNs model and its variants: the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). The results show that the GRU gives the overall best results, especially for the univariate out-of-sample forecasting for the currency exchange rates and multivariate out-of-sample forecasting for the stock market indexes. 相似文献
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Konstantin Volosov Gautam Mitra Fabio Spagnolo Cormac Lucas 《Computational Optimization and Applications》2005,32(1-2):179-207
In this paper we formulate a model for foreign exchange exposure management and (international) cash management taking into consideration random fluctuations of exchange rates. A vector error correction model (VECM) is used to predict the random behaviour of the forward as well as spot rates connecting dollar and sterling. A two-stage stochastic programming (TWOSP) decision model is formulated using these random parameter values. This model computes currency hedging strategies, which provide rolling decisions of how much forward contracts should be bought and how much should be liquidated.The model decisions are investigated through ex post simulation and backtesting in which value at risk (VaR) for alternative decisions are computed. The investigation (a) shows that there is a considerable improvement to “spot only” strategy, (b) provides insight into how these decisions are made and (c) also validates the performance of this model. 相似文献
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The presence of cocaine in a significant number of UK pounds (Xxxx), Euros (€) and North American banknotes ($) in general circulation requires appropriate tools to do determinations. This article discusses the-state-of-the-art in the analysis of cocaine on banknotes. We summarize the usual extraction methods of currency samples and compare them, especially with respect to avoiding sample damage. We critically discuss analytical methods, namely gas chromatography (GC) and liquid chromatography (LC), capillary electrophoresis (CE), immunoassay, thermal desorption tandem mass spectrometry (TD-MS2) and ion-mobility spectrometry (IMS). We also review cocaine levels on banknotes around the world and their possible relationship with drug consumption. 相似文献
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乐碧宏 《宁波大学学报(理工版)》2005,18(1):122-125
证券风险的计量准确与否,是证券组合理论能否有效运用的前提,在现有研究成果的基础上,结合我国证券市场的特点,选取“流通市值”作为影响我国证券风险的第二个因素,建立了证券风险计量模型,并使用统计软件对模型的适用性进行了检验. 相似文献
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模拟静电场实验中导电介质的选择 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
通过比较3种静电场描绘仪器的实验结果,分析误差产生的原因,指出选择导电介质应注意的问题。 相似文献
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从货币数量方程出发,运用汇率理论与对外贸易理论,主要讨论了币值低估时,对外贸易对经济体内物价水平的影响.在外贸情况一定时,经济体内物价水平与币值低估程度正相关;当币值低估程度确定,进出口比例与外贸规模也会对经济体内的通胀大小产生影响,具体表现为:外贸顺差越大,通胀越严重;但贸易逆差时,仍然有可能出现通胀;而若要追求贸易平衡的目标,则外贸规模越大,通胀越严重.同时,一国的币值低估还通过对外贸易对他国的物价水平产生影响. 相似文献
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Black-Litterman模型能够有效的解决均值-方差模型对输入(尤其是预期收益率)过于敏感的问题,从而使得其在实践中得到了广泛的应用。采用风险平价策略构造市场均衡组合,并采用基于货币周期的资产轮动收益构造主观观点组合,在将主观观点信心水平进行适当简化后,形成了改进后的Black-Litterman模型。利用我国资本市场上股票、商品和债券三种大类资产数据对改进后的Black-Litterman模型进行实证检验后发现:通过相对信心水平的调节,改进后的Black-Litterman模型能够对市场均衡组合和主观观点组合进行有效的平衡,且相对于其他资产配置组合及单种资产买入持有策略,Black-Litterman组合无论是在风险控制还是收益率上都表现的更为出色。实证结论充分说明了Black-Litterman模型的有效性,同时也从市场均衡组合、主观观点及信心水平三个方向指明了模型改进的方向。 相似文献
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