基于SPA的双枝模糊决策分析

将集对理论(SPA)与双枝模糊决策理论相结合,用集对分析的方法研究进行双枝模糊决策的方法,分别对双枝模糊决策因素域和双枝模糊决策的上枝、下枝和双枝进行了集对分析,给出了用SPA进行双枝模糊决策的性质,同时讨论了双枝模糊决策的动态分析方法,以及双枝模糊决策度强弱态势预测的方法,从而为双枝模糊决策理论的研究提供了新的视角和方法,为双枝模糊决策的应用提供了更方便的工具和更强的理论支持。     

A simple formula to find the closest consistent matrix to a reciprocal matrix

Achieving consistency in pair-wise comparisons between decision elements given by experts or stakeholders is of paramount importance in decision-making based on the AHP methodology. Several alternatives to improve consistency have been proposed in the literature. The linearization method (Benítez et al., 2011 [10]), derives a consistent matrix based on an original matrix of comparisons through a suitable orthogonal projection expressed in terms of a Fourier-like expansion. We propose a formula that provides in a very simple manner the consistent matrix closest to a reciprocal (inconsistent) matrix. In addition, this formula is computationally efficient since it only uses sums to perform the calculations. A corollary of the main result shows that the normalized vector of the vector, whose components are the geometric means of the rows of a comparison matrix, gives the priority vector only for consistent matrices.     

Compatible weighting method with rank order centroid: Maximum entropy ordered weighted averaging approach

In a situation where imprecise attribute weights such as a rank order are captured, various approximate weighting methods have been proposed to aid multiattribute decision analysis. Among others, it is well known that the rank order centroid (ROC) weights result in the highest performance in terms of the identification of the best alternative under the ranked attribute weights. In this paper, we aim to reinterpret the meaning of the ROC weights and to develop a compatible weighting method that is based on other well-established academic disciplines. The ordered weighted averaging (OWA) method is a nonlinear aggregation method in that the weights are associated with the objects reordered according to their magnitudes in the aggregation process. Some interesting semantics can be attached to the approximate weights in view of the measure developed in the OWA method. Furthermore, the weights generated by the maximum entropy method show equally compatible performance with the ROC weights under some condition, which is demonstrated by theoretical and simulation analysis.     

Development and Evaluation of Decision-Making Model for Stock Markets

The paper introduces an intelligent decision-making model which is based on the application of artificial neural networks (ANN) and swarm intelligence technologies. The proposed model is used to generate one-step forward investment decisions for stock markets. The ANN are used to make the analysis of daily stock returns and to calculate one day forward decision for purchase of the stocks. Subsequently the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is applied in order to select the “the best” ANN for the future investment decisions and to adapt the weights of other networks towards the weights of the best network. The experimental investigations were made considering different forms of decision-making model: different number of ANN, ANN inputs, sliding windows, and commission fees. The paper introduces the decision-making model, its evaluation results and discusses its application possibilities.     

A hybrid model for selection of an outsourcing provider

Outsourcing is a good strategy for firms that need to reduce operating costs and improve competitiveness and it is important that firms scientifically select appropriate outsourcing providers. Some efforts have been made to find systematic ways to deal with outsourcing problems, but these efforts incorrectly assumed that the criteria used in the decision process are independent, which is not true in the real world. In this study, we propose a new hybrid multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) model, which addresses the dependent relationships between the various criteria. The relations-structure among the criteria is built with the aid of the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method. Decision-makers tend to hold diverse opinions about their preferences due to incomplete information and knowledge, or inherent conflict between various departments. We further used the fuzzy preference programming and the analytic network process (ANP) to form a model for the selection of partners for outsourcing providers. The proposed model can help practitioners improve their decision making process, especially when criteria are numerous and inter-related. The method is demonstrated using data from a Taiwanese airline.     

Application of fuzzy soft set in decision making problems based on grey theory

There are many uncertain problems in practical production and life which need decisions made with soft sets and fuzzy soft sets. However, the basis of evaluation of the decision method is single and simple, the same decision problem can obtain different results from using a different evaluation basis. In this paper, in order to obtain the right result, we discuss fuzzy soft set decision problems. A new algorithm based on grey relational analysis is presented. The evaluation bases of the new algorithm are multiple. There is more information in a decision result based on multiple evaluation bases, which is more easily accepted and logical to one’s thinking. For the two cases examined, the results show that the new algorithm is efficient for solving decision problems.     

Self-organized structures in a superorganism: do ants “behave” like molecules?

While the striking structures (e.g. nest architecture, trail networks) of insect societies may seem familiar to many of us, the understanding of pattern formation still constitutes a challenging problem. Over the last two decades, self-organization has dramatically changed our view on how collective decision-making and structures may emerge out of a population of ant workers having each their own individuality as well as a limited access to information. A variety of collective behaviour spontaneously outcome from multiple interactions between nestmates, even when there is no directing influence imposed by an external template, a pacemaker or a leader. By focussing this review on foraging structures, we show that ant societies display some properties which are usually considered in physico-chemical systems, as typical signatures of self-organization. We detail the key role played by feed-back loops, fluctuations, number of interacting units and sensitivity to environmental factors in the emergence of a structured collective behaviour. Nonetheless, going beyond simple analogies with non-living self-organized patterns, we stress on the specificities of social structures made of complex living units of which the biological features have been selected throughout the evolution depending on their adaptive value. In particular, we consider the ability of each ant individual to process information about environmental and social parameters, to accordingly tune its interactions with nestmates and ultimately to determine the final pattern emerging at the collective level. We emphasize on the parsimony and simplicity of behavioural rules at the individual level which allow an efficient processing of information, energy and matter within the whole colony.     

Water resources planning based on complex system dynamics: A case study of Tianjin city

A complex system dynamic (SD) model focusing on water resources, termed as TianjinSD, is developed for the integrated and scientific management of the water resources of Tianjin, which contains information feedback that governs interactions in the system and is capable of synthesizing component-level knowledge into system behavior simulation at an integrated level, thus presenting reasonable predictive results for policy-making on water resources allocation and management. As for the Tianjin city, interactions among 96 components for 12 years are explored and four planning alternatives are chosen, one of which is based on the conventional mode assuming that the existing pattern of human activities will be prevailed, while the others are alternative planning designs based on the interaction of local authorities and planning researchers. Optimal mode is therefore obtained according to different scenarios when compared the simulation results for evaluation of different decisions and dynamic consequences.     

Convex fuzzy random variables

A theory of fuzzy random variables is developed that applies to situations involving both randomness and fuzziness. The use of membership functions that are quasi-concave play an important role in the theory. The expectation of a fuzzy random variable is a fuzzy variable (fuzzy set). The usual linearity properties of probabilistic expectation carry over to fuzzy random variables. A special case of a fuzzy Law of Large Number is proven.     

一种基于TOPSIS法的单值中智多属性决策新方法

单值中智集(SVNS)是中智集(NS)的一种特殊情况,它可以描述现实世界中大量存在的不精确、不确定和不一致信息。由于语言评价的模糊性,传统的模糊评价方法在解决多属性决策(MADM)问题上效果不佳。针对这种情况,提出了一种基于TOPSIS法的单值中智多属性决策新方法。首先介绍了中智集的一些基本概念和运算规则,给出了两个单值中智集之间的广义距离公式;然后构建了聚合专家权重的单值中智决策矩阵,把TOPSIS法推广到单值中智集的环境下;接着通过偏好排序确定了最佳的决策方案。最后通过一个仿真实例,说明了该方案的有效和实用性。