一种研究网络论坛上舆论演化的新方法

在网络论坛上,以某一话题为中心的网络舆论已经成为影响人们生活,甚至政府决策的重要因素.话题的参与者以论坛的方式组合在一起,通过相互之间信息的交互,逻辑上形成动态变化的系统.由于人类本身的适应性(对环境的适应),从而造成该系统的错综复杂,谁都无法把握该系统的发展.为此,引入复杂适应性系统的思想和方法,通过对基于论坛的网络舆论的分析,将影响该类网络舆论形成、发展的几个重要因素进行规则化.以CAS理论来构建基于论坛的网络舆论系统并研究其演化,并利用Swarm平台对该系统进行实现.实验仿真结果表明CAS理论能够有效地研究基于论坛的网络舆论,为进一步研究互联网上的网络舆论提供新的方法.     

Analyzing netizens’ view and reply behaviors on the forum

Quantitative understanding of human behaviors provides elementary comprehension of the complexity of social system. In this paper, the netizens’ behaviors on the Bulletin Board System (BBS) are investigated by the statistical analysis of views and replies on some forums. The statistical results show that the number of views and replies obeys the power-law distribution with different power exponents. In addition, when the distribution of both views and replies follows power-law distribution, they are found to have a nonlinear relationship. This relationship also obeys the power function, when transformed to the log-log plot, its fit curve appears as a straight line. Based on the estimation of slopes and intercepts of the lines, we can characterize the view and reply behaviors quantitatively. The results reveal that the Chinese and western netizens have different preferences when replying and viewing the threads. At last, the time series of reply behaviors are analyzed. All series show us with a high burstiness and low memory.     

Time-varying many-server finite-queues in tandem: Comparing blocking mechanisms via fluid models

This paper focuses on the mechanism of Blocking Before Service (BBS), in time-varying many-server queues in tandem. BBS arises in telecommunication networks, production lines and healthcare systems. We model a stochastic tandem network under BBS and develop its corresponding fluid limit, which includes reflection due to jobs lost. Comparing our fluid model against simulation shows that the model is accurate and effective. This gives rise to design/operational insights regarding network throughput, under both BBS and BAS (Blocking After Service).     

基于股吧情感本体与传播的股市短线预测

为研究股吧文本中蕴含的股民情感对股市短线走势的影响,使用情感倾向点互信息算法构建面向股市的情感词典,分别考虑情感本体与情感来源传播建立面向股市的加权情感倾向得分模型,并进一步建立ARMA-GARCHX模型以分析股民情感与股市短线走势之间的关系.研究显示：面向股市的情感词典相比于传统情感词典具有更强的适应性,使用加权情感倾向得分模型建立的预测模型对股市走向的预测相比于传统方法具有更优良的预测效果.