On the Moments of Overflow and Freed Carried Traffic for the GI/M/C/0 System

In circuit-switched networks call streams are characterized by their mean and peakedness (two-moment method). The GI/M/C/0 system is used to model a single link, where the GI-stream is determined by fitting moments appropriately. For the moments of the overflow traffic of a GI/M/C/0 system there are efficient numerical algorithms available. However, for the moments of the freed carried traffic, defined as the moments of a virtual link of infinite capacity to which the process of calls accepted by the link (carried arrival process) is virtually directed and where the virtual calls get fresh exponential i.i.d. holding times, only complex numerical algorithms are available. This is the reason why the concept of the freed carried traffic is not used. The main result of this paper is a numerically stable and efficient algorithm for computing the moments of freed carried traffic, in particular an explicit formula for its peakedness. This result offers a unified handling of both overflow and carried traffics in networks. Furthermore, some refined characteristics for the overflow and freed carried streams are derived.     

准移动闭塞系统的元胞自动机模型及列车延迟传播规律的研究

在NaSch模型的基础上，针对铁路交通的特点提出一种用于模拟准移动闭塞系统的元胞自动机模型.应用该模型模拟了准移动闭塞系统列车延迟传播的交通现象，分析了准移动闭塞系统中的轨道定位单元长度、发车时间间隔、初始延迟时间等因素对列车延迟传播的影响. 关键词： 元胞自动机 交通流 准移动闭塞     

Inequalities for the Moments and Distribution of the Ladder Height of a Random Walk

We obtain upper bounds for the tail distribution of the first nonnegative sum of a random walk and for the moments of the overshoot over an arbitrary nonnegative level if the expectation of jumps is positive and close to zero. In addition, we find an estimate for the expectation of the first ladder epoch.     

OPTIMAL INVESTMENT IN THE PROTECTION OF A VULNERABLE BIOLOGICAL RESOURCE

It is assumed that the probability of destruction of a biological asset by natural hazards can be reduced through investment in protection. Specifically a model, in which the hazard rate depends on both the age of the asset and the accumulated invested protection capital, is assumed. The protection capital depreciates through time and its effectiveness in reducing the hazard rate is subject to diminishing returns. It is shown how the investment schedule to maximize the expected net present value of the asset can be determined using the methods of deterministic optimal control, with the survival probability regarded as a state variable. The optimal investment pattern involves “bang-bang-singular” control. A numerical scheme for determining jointly the optimal investment policy and the optimal harvest (or replacement) age is outlined and a numerical example involving forest fire protection is given.     

首次穿过边界概率及其在金融中的应用

本文把数学和管理科学有机结合,为数学应用提出问题,得出新结果,推广了J.Michel Harrison(1985)[1]第43页的命题27,并给出了在金融中的应用.     

Stochastic analysis in life office management: applications to large annuity portfolios

The paper deals with the riskiness analysis for a large portfolio of life annuities. By means of the limiting distribution of the present value of the portfolio, in the first part of the paper a model for evaluating the investment and the projection risks is presented. In the second part, with regard to the investment risk's effects, the insolvency risk is measured considering the cumulative probability distribution function of the discounted average cost per policy. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

交通灯控制下城市主干道双车道多速元胞自动机交通流模型研究

提出一个城市主干道双车道多速元胞自动机交通流模型，此模型采用开放性 边界条件，在考虑诸多实际因素影响情况下，研究了主干道中车站的设置、交通灯绿信比对 车流量和车流速度的影响.计算机模拟所得到的基本图（流量 速度图）能较好地反映在交 通灯控制下城市主干道交通流真实状况. 关键词： 元胞自动机模型 交通流 主干道     

On the Existence of Solutions to Vector Quasivariational Inequalities and Quasicomplementarity Problems with Applications Break to Traffic Network Equilibria

For vector quasivariational inequalities involving multifunctions in topological vector spaces, an existence result is obtained without a monotonicity assumption and with a convergence assumption weaker than semicontinuity. A new type of quasivariational inequality is proposed. Applications to quasicomplementarity problems and traffic network equilibria are considered. In particular, definitions of weak and strong Wardrop equilibria are introduced for the case of multivalued cost functions.     

随机化交通灯的二维元胞自动机交通模型

元胞自动机交通模型以简单的规则反映交通系统中的多种因素，可以分析各种交通现象，且可在计算机上方便、高效地运作·Ｂｉｈａｍ－Ｍｉｄｄｌｅｔｏｎ－Ｌｅｖｉｎｅ模型（ＢＭＬ模型）实现了二维交通问题的元胞自动机模型的模拟研究·本文对ＢＭＬ模型作了改进，解除了该模型中关于交通灯同步变化的限制·在新模型中，每个路口的交通灯可以自由选定起始工作时间和变化节奏，于是可以更全面、准确地反映交通灯对交通系统性能的影响·本文还对新模型中出现的若干新效应作了解释·     

Formulation,Stability, and Computation of Traffic Network Equilibria as Projected Dynamical Systems

In this paper, we present a unified treatment and analysis of a dynamic traffic network model with elastic demands formulated and studied as a projected dynamical system. We propose a travel route choice adjustment process that satisfies the projected dynamical system. Under certain conditions, stability and asymptotical stability of the equilibrium patterns are then derived. Finally, two discrete-time algorithms, the Euler method and the Heun method, are proposed for the computation of the solutions, and convergence results established. The convergence results depend crucially on stability analysis. The performance of the algorithms is then illustrated on several transportation networks.