Study of solar features causing GMSs with 250γ<<Emphasis Type="Italic">H</Emphasis><400γ

The effect of solar features on geospheric conditions leading to geomagnetic storms (GMSs) with planetary index,A ^P ≥ 20 and the range of horizontal component of the Earth’s magnetic fieldH such that 250γ <H < 400γ has been investigated using interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), solar wind plasma (SWP) and solar geophysical data (SGD) during the period 1978–99. Statistically, it is observed that maximum number of GMSs have occurred during the maximum solar activity years of 21st and 22nd solar cycles. A peculiar result has been observed during the years 1982, 1994 when sunspot numbers (SSNs) decrease very rapidly while numbers of GMSs increase. No distinct association between yearly occurrence of disturbed days and SSNs is observed. Maximum number of disturbed days have occurred during spring and rainy seasons showing a seasonal variation of disturbed days. No significant correlation between magnitude (intensity) of GMSs and importance ofH _α , X-ray solar flares has been observed. Maximum number of GMSs is associated with solar flares of lower importance, i.e., SF during the period 1978-93.H _α , X-ray solar flares occurred within lower helio-latitudes, i.e., (0–30)°N to (0–30)°S are associated with GMSs. NoH _α , X-ray solar flares have occurred beyond 40°N or 40°S in association with GMSs. In helio-latitude range (10–40)°N to (10–40)°S, the 89.5% concentration of active prominences and disappearing filaments (APDFs) are associated with GMSs. Maximum number of GMSs are associated with solar flares. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are related with eruptive prominences, solar flares, type IV radio burst and they occur at low helio-latitude. It is observed that CMEs related GMS events are not always associated with high speed solar wind streams (HSSWSs). In many individual events, the travel time between the explosion on the Sun and maximum activity lies between 58 and 118 h causing GMSs at the Earth.     

GEOENVIRONMENTAL CHARACTERS OF YELLOW (HUANGHE) RIVER SUSPENDED LOAD

Three important characters of the suspended load of the Yellow (Huanghe) River are discussed, i.e. its temporal fluctuation as a function of solar activity, its uneven spatial distribution along the main course and the inevitability of these phenomena as a natural earth process rather than a result of disturbed ecological system caused by human activity. Implications of this understanding with regard to the control of the Yellow River are also discussed.     

基于时变阈值过程神经网络的太阳黑子数预测

太阳黑子活动直接影响着外层空间环境的变化，为保证航天飞行任务的安全必须对其进行有效预测.为此，提出了一种基于时变阈值过程神经网络的时间序列预测模型.为简化模型的计算复杂度，开发了一种基于正交基函数展开的学习算法.文中分析了模型的泛函逼近能力，并以Mackey-Glass时间序列预测为例验证了所提模型及其学习算法的有效性.最后，将该预测模型用于太阳活动第23周太阳黑子数平滑月均值预测，取得了满意的结果，应用结果同时表明：所提预测方法与其他传统预测方法相比预测精度有所提高，具有一定的理论和实用价值. 关键词： 太阳黑子数 时变阈值过程神经网络 时间序列预测 泛函逼近     

基于混沌理论的太阳黑子数平滑月均值预报

太阳黑子活动长期预报对航天、通讯、防灾等具有重要的指导意义. 针对加权一阶局域法在多步预测时存在累积误差效应, 建立了基于相空间重构技术的径向基函数神经网络预测模型. 用该模型对第22, 23 太阳周黑子数平滑月均值进行逐月预报, 并与实测值进行比较. 结果表明, 预报的绝对误差可以控制在15.00 以内, 平均绝对误差分别为5.47, 2.83, 相对误差控制在15.00%以内, 平均相对误差分别为5.45%, 4.60%, 验证了该模型在预测太阳黑子数时具有较高的精度. 将该预测模型用于第24 太阳周黑子数平滑月均值预报, 做出了自2009 年1月到2019年12月共132 个月的黑子数平滑月均值的预报, 指出黑子数平滑月均值的最大值为104.77, 将出现的时间为2013年1月.     

太阳高纬和低纬活动现象的混沌与分形特征

为了研究太阳高纬度和低纬度活动现象在南北半球的混沌与分形特征, 结合递归分析方法与Grassberger-Procaccia算法两种技术对1952年2月至1998年6月的极区光斑和黑子数目两种太阳磁活动指标进行了详细分析和比较. 主要结论如下: 1)由于太阳活动现象与磁场的时空演化密切相关, 导致太阳活动在南半球和北半球的混沌与分形特征具有不对称性, 太阳高纬度和低纬度活动现象的混沌与分形特征具有差异性; 2)太阳高纬度活动现象比低纬度活动现象具有更强的混沌程度和更复杂的分形结构, 其中太阳高纬度活动现象在北半球具有最强的混沌程度和最复杂的分形结构.     

Normalization of sunspot cycles and eigen mode analysis

The smoothed monthly sunspot numbers of the previous 22 complete sunspot cycles are normalized in time domain, and then an eigen mode analysis is carried out to draw the principle factors (or components) in the cycles. The results show that the main characteristics of the solar cycles can be described fairly well by the first 5 eigen modes. The obtained eigen modes are used to predict the declining phase of cycle 23 on the basis of the data prior to its maximum. The prediction indicates that cycle 23 will last for 127 months to December 2006, with the minimum of 6.2.     

Time-Reversibility,Causality and Compression-Complexity

Detection of the temporal reversibility of a given process is an interesting time series analysis scheme that enables the useful characterisation of processes and offers an insight into the underlying processes generating the time series. Reversibility detection measures have been widely employed in the study of ecological, epidemiological and physiological time series. Further, the time reversal of given data provides a promising tool for analysis of causality measures as well as studying the causal properties of processes. In this work, the recently proposed Compression-Complexity Causality (CCC) measure (by the authors) is shown to be free of the assumption that the "cause precedes the effect", making it a promising tool for causal analysis of reversible processes. CCC is a data-driven interventional measure of causality (second rung on the Ladder of Causation) that is based on Effort-to-Compress (ETC), a well-established robust method to characterize the complexity of time series for analysis and classification. For the detection of the temporal reversibility of processes, we propose a novel measure called the Compressive Potential based Asymmetry Measure. This asymmetry measure compares the probability of the occurrence of patterns at different scales between the forward-time and time-reversed process using ETC. We test the performance of the measure on a number of simulated processes and demonstrate its effectiveness in determining the asymmetry of real-world time series of sunspot numbers, digits of the transcedental number π and heart interbeat interval variability.     

秘鲁M_w≥6.9地震趋势判断与时空对称规律

选取秘鲁地区1970年以来M_w≥6.9的地震数据,根据可公度性理论,提取秘鲁强震的可公度信息,采用蝴蝶结构图、可公度网络结构图和震中迁移方法,探索该地区强震活动的时空对称性,同时对可能触发地震的天文现象与地震灾害的发生进行相关分析,进一步验证趋势判断结果,发现相关规律.研究结果表明:1970年以来秘鲁M_w≥6.9地震具有可公度性,2019年在秘鲁北部(73°W,11°S附近)发生中深源地震的信号较强;太阳活动、地球自转、月球运动与秘鲁地震的发生具有一定相关性,秘鲁M_w≥6.9地震发生在太阳活动峰值年、下降段的占77.78%,发生在太阳活动双周期的占66.67%,发生在地球自转变化率较大年份的占60%,朔月前后是地震频发期(占44.44%),朔月、下弦月前后地震发生次数达83.33%.