市场化改革背景下养老机构服务供给博弈研究

考虑政府补贴、市场化程度、养老机构服务成本、老年人偏好等因素,构建了完全国有化、公私并存的半市场化和完全市场化三种情形下公办和民办养老机构之间的两阶段博弈模型,比较分析了市场化程度对养老机构服务价格制定和服务水平选择的影响,实证讨论了各参数变化对养老机构收益及社会福利的影响。研究表明:完全市场化机制会降低养老机构服务质量,完全国有化机制会陷入社会福利陷阱,探索公私并存的最佳市场化水平才能更好地提高社会福利;适度推进市场化改革,提高养老机构服务水平,降低民办养老机构服务成本,适度提高对民办养老机构的补贴,将有效缓解公办和民办养老机构的不公平竞争;提高老年人支付能力,推进养老机构供给侧结构性改革,将保障机构养老服务的有效供给,促进养老服务业的健康有序发展。     

基于灰色聚类分析的风险评价方法研究——以江苏民间资本进入金融领域风险评价为例

运用灰色系统理论,结合AHP方法,建立灰色聚类分析模型,对风险进行评价,并以江苏民间资本进入金融领域风险评价为例进行研究.结果表明,民间资本进入金融领域的风险属于高风险范畴,其中进入风险中的产业风险和社会风险属于高风险,信用风险属于较高风险,政治风险属于中等风险.并针对上述风险的等级,提出了相应的政策建议.模型具有一定的实用价值,它对于正确认识民间资本进入金融领域的风险和有针对性地制定相应的政策措施具有一定的理论和现实意义.     

EFFECT OF FORESTLAND AVAILABILITY BY OWNERSHIP TYPE ON LICENSE SALES FOR HUNTING: A SPATIAL APPROACH

Abstract The effect of forestland availability under different ownership types on license sales for hunting in nine Southeastern states is empirically evaluated. An equation that represents license sales for hunting is estimated assuming the sale of hunting licenses in a particular county is related to the characteristics of that county as well as the characteristics and license sales for hunting in its neighboring counties. The positive effects of the amounts of both national and private forestland on license sales reaffirm the potential benefits of maintaining forestland to stimulate hunting. The positive spillover effect of national forests on license sales for hunting suggests that availability and close access to hunting in national forests within neighboring counties are important in supporting hunting license sales in a county. This study contributes to the general understanding of the drivers affecting individuals’ decisions to use natural resources for hunting. Advances in natural resource modeling, specifically the spatial process model and geospatial data used in this research, make it possible to examine the interactions between the spatial dynamics and ownership attributes of the natural system, allowing policy makers to design natural resource management practices that respond to a system characterized by these interactions.     

基于演化博弈的公共交通、共享汽车与私家车的博弈分析

出行者的选择行为分析是交通系统中的一项重要内容,随着城市的发展,交通出行方式大体分为三大类:公共交通出行、辅助公共交通出行和私人交通出行。本文在以往的研究基础上,采用演化博弈的方法研究公共交通、共享汽车以及私家车三者之间的博弈关系,模拟出行者的选择行为,分析博弈均衡点稳定性及参数条件。通过模型仿真实验,演化结果中各项比例大小取决于各项收益、补贴、损失以及额外收益,要增加公共交通的配套设施,增收拥堵费以及增加对共享汽车的补贴及配套服务。     

基于ZigBee网络和超声定位的智能跟随小车

基于成熟的IEEE802.15.4协议和ZigBee无线模块,结合超声定位,设计了一种新颖的智能跟随系统。设计的核心为PIC18F4620单片机和MRF24J40MA无线收发模块,通过无线收发来完成节点间的识别与同步,同时以超声测距系统完成对被跟踪目标的定位,通过控制驱动电机动作实现对指定目标的定距离跟随。控制网络以子网的形式控制不同系统的分时定位跟随,同时管理各移动定位系统的入网和切换。样机测试结果表明系统达到了预期的跟随设计要求,具有一定的工程使用价值。     

一种轿车车轮应力状态测量与分析方法

基于台架应变测试试验方法,研究轿车车轮在疲劳试验中的应力状态。结果表明:车轮的径向疲劳试验时,轮胎会对车轮的载荷产生较大的影响,轮胎与转鼓的挤压变形以及正反转动都会对车轮的应力状态产生影响;车轮径向疲劳试验时,最大应变出现在轮辋与轮胎接触位置沿车轮圆周方向,而在靠近轮心位置的应变较小;车轮弯曲疲劳试验时,最大应变出现在轮辐靠近轮心的位置,最大应变出现在轮辐的长度方向;不同的载荷对车轮应变的变化规律并没有影响,但是会对最大和最小峰值产生影响。     

氧化铈和氧化镧在汽车尾气净化催化剂中的应用

阐述了稀土元素应用于汽车尾气净化催化剂的意义，讨论了氧化铈和氧化镧的催化作用机制及其影响因素，并对其发展前景进行了展望。汽车尾气净化普遍使用铂铑基贵金属三元催化剂。为了解决Pt，Rh的供需矛盾，应用稀土(氧化铈和氧化镧)作为添加剂，降低Pt，Rh用量、扩大Pd基催化剂应用是研究开发的热点。据研究，氧化铈和氧化镧催化作用机制主要是提高活性涂层的催化活性，自动调节空气燃料比和助催化作用，并能提高载体的热稳定性和机械强度等性能。影响氧化铈和氧化镧催化性能的因素主要为共助作用、添加方法、ZrO2，CuO，AgO等其他氧化物的协同作用。     

110警车配置及巡逻方案

针对110警车调度问题,引入了图论中的最短路算法以及计算几何的相关理论,建立了车辆调配模型、巡逻路线模型以及基于模糊数学的评价指标模型.另外,用C++编写了一个可视化的软件,不仅实现了手动描点,自动求出覆盖线段集合的功能,同时利用计算机模拟警车的巡逻路线,最后通过计算机检验得到结果,其合理性和实用性都令人满意.针对问题一,通过人机结合,配置17辆警车就能实现D1的目标,很好地兼顾了警车巡逻的运行成本,减少公安部门车辆和人员等的投入.针对问题二,采用模糊数学相关理论使评价指标实现了从定性到定量的转变.针对问题三和六,在D1的基础上,兼顾了巡逻效果的显著性,采用最少被巡逻道路优先的贪心算法建立了动态巡逻模型,得到了合理的巡逻方案.在此方案中,我们动用了30辆警车完成了问题一的目标.另外还额外考虑了案发事件概率不均匀分布的情况,建立了改进模型.针对问题四,在完成问题三指标的基础上,为了尽可能提高巡逻车辆的隐蔽性和增强巡逻效果,采用轮盘赌算法来引入随机性.针对问题五,采用最远距离道路优先贪心策略,使模型尽可能满足条件D1,D2.针对问题七,提出了一些额外因素及其解决方案,进一步完善了模型,使模型更贴近现实.     

ON OPTIMAL ENVIRONMENTAL TAXATION AND ENFORCEMENT: INFORMATION,MONITORING AND EFFICIENCY

ABSTRACT. The purpose of the paper is to contribute to the narrowing of the distance between formal theory and practical environmental policy design. We formulate a general and comprehensive theoretical model in order to take into account the different informational and technological problems which characterize the definition and implementation of environmental taxes in a second best world where there also are distortionary taxes. Having formalized these problems, we present a general model which allows us to discuss the existence of efficient and implementable environmental quality objectives and policy instruments, and to analyze many particular cases.     

Two local search approaches for solving real-life car sequencing problems

The NP-hard problem of car sequencing appears as the heart of the logistic process of many car manufacturers. The subject of the ROADEF’2005 challenge addressed a car sequencing problem proposed by the car manufacturer RENAULT, more complex than the academic problem generally addressed in the literature. This paper describes two local search approaches for this problem. In the first part, a new approach by very large-scale neighborhood search is presented. This approach, designed during the qualification stage preceding the final, is based on an original integer linear programming formulation. The second part is dedicated to the approach which enabled us to win the ROADEF’2005 challenge. Inspired by the latest works on the subject, this one is based on very fast explorations of small neighborhoods. Our contribution here is mainly algorithmic, in particular by showing how much exploiting invariants speeds up the neighborhood evaluation and contributes to the diversification of the search. Finally, the two approaches are compared and discussed through an extensive computational study on RENAULT’s benchmarks. The main conclusion drawn at this point is that sophisticated metaheuristics are useless to solve car sequencing problems. More generally, our victory on ROADEF’2005 challenge demonstrates that algorithmic aspects, sometimes neglected, remain the key ingredients for designing and engineering high-performance local search heuristics.