ANN技术在企业经济预测与预警中的应用研究

提出了适合于上市公司而建立的基于ANN技术的企业经济综合指标短期预警系统的构建方案.该系统是一个人机相结合的反馈式预警系统,包括危机判定、财务指标预测、预警知识获取和报警四个子系统.该系统将定性分析与定量分析结合起来,既突出人的作用,又充分发挥了人工神经网络的在预测方面的技术,使得两者有机的结合在一起.其中,预警指标预测子系统体现了ANN技术在时间序列预测方面的应用,而知识获取子系统和报警子系统则体现了ANN技术在回归预测方面的应用,两者都有很好的理论基础.同时,该系统建立的程序比较规范,具有普适性,易于操作,比较容易实现.最后,还对该系统进行了实证模拟分析,并与专家意见结果进行了对比,验证了其有效性.     

天然气消费量的偏最小二乘支持向量机预测

结合偏最小二乘法和支持向量机的优缺点,提出基于偏最小二乘支持向量机的天然气消费量预测模型。首先,利用偏最小二乘法确定影响天然气消费量的新综合变量,建立以新综合变量为输入,天然气消费量为输出的支持向量机模型,对天然气消费量进行了预测;然后,与多元回归、偏最小二乘回归、普通支持向量机做误差检验比较,验证该方法的可行性与正确性。结果表明,此天然气消费量预测模型具有较高的精确度和应用价值。     

噪声模态单元预判的经验模态分解脉冲星信号消噪

为了改善脉冲星辐射脉冲信号的消噪效果, 提出了一种基于噪声模态单元预判的经验模态分解(EMD) 消噪声方法. 该方法首先利用EMD将含噪辐射脉冲信号分解为一组内蕴模态函数(IMF), 根据IMF系数的统计特性采用局部均方误差准则进行噪声模态单元预判, 并将噪声模态单元置零; 然后对噪声模态单元预判处理后的IMF以模态单元为基本单位进行最优比例萎缩消噪, 从而达到抑制噪声、保留信号的目的. 实验结果表明: 与Sure Shrink小波阈值法、Bayes Shrink小波阈值法和EMD模态单元比例萎缩法相比, 基于噪声模态单元预判的EMD消噪方法可以更有效地去除脉冲辐射信号中的噪声, 同时更好地保留信号突变处的细节信息特征, 在信噪比、 均方误差、峰值相对误差、峰位误差和相位误差等方面都有一定程度的改善. 关键词： 脉冲星信号消噪 经验模态分解 噪声模态单元预判 局部均方误差     

Panderivative blown-up of ground temperature and predicting earthquake

I.IntroductionEarthquakeisanaturalphenomenonofthemovementinsidetheearthitself.Itisalwaysadamageprocesstohumanbeing,biosphereandsoon.itsreflectiollispreltlyseriotls.Itissignificanttoinvestigateitsactivityfeatureandconcerningprocess,tounderstallditsphysicalSubstancetoformulateproventingmeasuresandimprovemonitoringpossibility.Groundthermalheatcurrentcontainsplentit'ulinformationofgeology,geophysicalilndgeochemistry.Itisimportantforgeoscienceresearch.Ithasbeenprovedthatthereexigtgoutgoinggeother…     

A generalized self-consistent method for composites with random elastic properties of inclusions

The generalized self-consistent method is extended to the problems of statistical mechanics of composites with random elastic properties of inclusions. This approach makes it possible to reduce the problem of predicting the effective elastic properties of composites with random structures to a sequence of simpler homogenized boundary-value problems for solitary inclusions with inhomogeneous elastic transition layers in a homogeneous effective elastic medium and with the corresponding boundary conditions. The elastic properties of a solitary inclusion for the gth homogenized problem are found from the solutions of the gth and (g+1)th homogenized problems. The elastic properties and sizes of the transition layers account for the random distribution, random sizes, and random elastic properties of inclusions in the composite. A test problem of predicting the effective elastic properties of a transversely isotropic layer composite with random elastic properties of some layers is solved by using the method proposed. The solution obtained coincides with the known exact solution [1].Perm State Technical University, Perm, Russia. Translated from Mekhanika Kompozitnykh Materialov, Vol. 35, No. 6, pp. 785–796, November–December, 1999.     

Elastic behavior of uniformly loaded circular corrugated plate with sine-shaped shallow waves in large deflection

By means of modified iteration method, this paper gives approximate solution of the large deflection equations of circular corrugated plate with sine-shaped shallow waves having a central platform under uniform lateral load. A formula of initial modification coefficient is given, and an integral is obtained for the simplification of modified iteration calculations. The results of present paper show better agreement with experimental data and larger applicable range than all other existing solutions of corrugated plates.     

鱼雷追击海上目标问题的数学模型研究

在现代高科技的战争中,发射鱼雷精确地打击对方海上目标,是取得制海权的关键因素之一,本文从数学建模的角度出发,使用微分方程等建模方法,探讨了鱼雷追击敌海上目标问题,给出了相关的结论。     

我国人口发展总量的中长期预测模型

通过对1994―2005年男、女出生人口性别比的变化和2001―2005年城镇化趋势的分析,建立了我国人口发展总量的中长期预测模型,并针对在总和生育率四种不同情况下2006-2100年的人口发展状况进行了长期预测和详细分析.在目前人口结构状况下,将总和生育率控制在更替水平左右,既可保证总人口不超过15亿,又能降低人口老龄化程度,可为人口控制、决策提供较为科学的依据.     

煤层压裂裂缝三维延伸模拟及产量预测研究

针对煤层气井的压裂特点和产出机理,综合应用流体力学、线弹性断裂力学、传热学、计算数学和软件工程等方面的知识,提出了煤层压裂裂缝三维延伸模型和产量动态预测模型,其中裂缝三维延伸模型考虑了煤层、上下遮挡层之间的地应力和岩石力学参数变化的影响,产量动态预测模型考虑了煤层气先解吸扩散后渗流入井的产出机理。在此基础上研制了煤层气井三维压裂优化设计软件,并通过实例计算验证了其实用性和可靠性。