农业供应链金融能有效缓解企业的融资约束？——涉农企业参与精准扶贫的实证研究

农业供应链金融为涉农企业融资难问题提供了新思路。本文以上市涉农上市企业2016~2018年的财务数据为样本,探讨了农业供应链金融对缓解企业融资约束的影响,以及涉农企业参与精准扶贫对缓解融资约束的调节作用。研究发现:涉农企业普遍面临融资约束问题,而农业供应链金融显著缓解了涉农企业的融资约束,且对参与精准扶贫企业的融资约束缓解更为显著。本文揭示了:农业供应链金融能有效缓解涉农企业的融资约束问题,再次证明了农业供应链金融缓解涉农企业融资约束的重要性和必要性,拓展了供应链金融研究的领域,同时对企业参与精准扶贫,响应新时期涉农企业社会责任的具体要求,形成政府、企业等共同承担社会责任的多元化减贫治理机制,助力乡村振兴提供相应借鉴。     

社会分配的和谐结构

实现和谐社会需要一个与之相适应的社会分配结构.借助基尼系数描述了一种和谐的社会分配结构.通过观察和分析我国近年的经济数据可以发现,为实现和谐的分配状态,我们必须应对许多严峻挑战:城乡差别依旧过大;接近占总人口20%的最贫困人群几乎没有财富积累;过大的地下经济扭曲并影响了社会的公平分配.进行社会分配必须兼顾均衡与效率.要实现和谐的分配状态,可以有许多考虑和选择.建议采取法律、法规、科技、政策和行政的各种手段,要坚决消灭近20%最贫困人群的入不敷出的情形;要全力打造中等收入阶层;要加大取缔黑色收入规范灰色收入的力度;要加快城镇化建设的步伐;要积极营建促进全民创业的环境.     

基于重复博弈的地方政府精准扶贫合作机制研究

精准扶贫是习近平总书记为彻底解决贫困问题而提出一项战略要求。精准扶贫是一项复杂性较高、涉及范畴较广的系统工作,其工作的展开需要由地方政府共同协作完成。地方政府合作周期长短对精准扶贫有着巨大的影响,基于博弈论的基本思想方法,针对地方政府精准扶贫合作机制进行研究。首先,针对精准扶贫过程中完全信息静态博弈的情况,构建地方政府合作与非合作的无限次重复博弈模型,并分析双方政府均采取冷酷战略时,彼此合作的临界贴现因子;然后,针对精准扶贫过程中地方政府合作周期长短对精准扶贫成效的问题,探讨了有限重复博弈模型的临界贴现因子与地方政府合作周期的关系。分析表明：在精准扶贫过程中,双方政府合作周期越长,临界贴现因子越小,精准扶贫合作的稳定性越强。最后,针对精准扶贫过程中地方政府合作周期和合作机制等提出对策和建议。     

Means and their applications

General considerations about means and expectations are preceded by a short historical overview. The existing approaches to the definition of means are classified into three groups: approximational, functional, and axiomatic. In some particular cases all of them are equivalent. The problem of meaningfulness of means is discussed for ordinal data and for some important cases of metric data. A survey of the main areas of applications: decision theory, group decision, insurance, economical equity and inequality is also provided. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

基于Alkire-Foster模型的多维贫困测度影响因素敏感性研究——基于粤北山区农村家庭的调查数据

贫困测度是贫困研究的基础.论文以Alkire-Foster多维贫困测度模型为基础,构建多维贫困影响因素敏感性分析模型,并运用该模型对粤北山区农村家庭进行实证分析,发现:在厨房燃料和教育两个维度贫困发生率高;贫困发生率对教育和居住条件两个指标贫困线的变化较为敏感;权重的改变对测度结果的影响比较大,特别是当被剥夺的临界值k较小时,多维贫困发生率对权重变化更为敏感.     

Applications of control theory to economic analysis: J.D. Pitchford and S.J. Turnovsky,Editors, Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1977, 364 pages,Dfl. 155.00

A.K. Sen's index, P, is the only measure of poverty in a population that adequately allows for numbers in poverty, intensity of average poverty, and income distribution among the poor, while respecting two natural axioms. Nevertheless, the derivatives of P possess at least four attributes, at best highly counter-intuitive, at worst inconsistent with diminishing-marginal-utility assumptions, underlying the axioms themselves. Due to problems in handling income distribution among the poor, no measure of aggregate poverty can be constructed. Instead, it is proposed to construct a simple measure of those in ultra-poverty - among whom income cannot be very unequal - plus a pair of measures of moderate poverty.     

Population replications and ethical poverty measurement

In this paper, a class of relative and a class of absolute ethical measures of poverty depending on the head-court ratio and the aggregate income gap of the poor are characterized. Among other requirements, an axiom for poverty comparisons of distributions of different dimensions is used. Furthermore, it is shown that the above-mentioned axiom for population change cannot be used to characterize a specific class of absolute ethical poverty indices depending on the absolute number of poor instead of the head-count ratio.     

我国城镇贫困变动及影响因素研究——基于收入分布拟合及分解模型研究

通过非参数估计理论拟合收入分布计算贫困指数,对我国2000-2005年城镇贫困的变动状况进行了研究,并在此基础上,利用收入分布的位置和形状变化分解对引起贫困变动的原因进行了深入分析.贫困变动研究表明:从全国来看,贫困的广度和深度有所改善,但贫困人口间的收入不平等有一定程度的恶化.分地区来看,东部地区相对贫困人口有所增加,中部地区贫困状况明显改善,西部地区贫困状况明显恶化.贫困变动的影响因素分析表明:经济增长使贫困状况得到改善,而收入分配的不平等部分或全部抵消了改善的效果.但对于西部地区而言,经济增长在一定程度上恶化了贫困率水平.     

Bayesian Inference for the One-Factor Copula Model

We develop efficient Bayesian inference for the one-factor copula model with two significant contributions over existing methodologies. First, our approach leads to straightforward inference on dependence parameters and the latent factor; only inference on the former is available under frequentist alternatives. Second, we develop a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that averages over models constructed from different bivariate copula building blocks. Our approach accommodates any combination of discrete and continuous margins. Through extensive simulations, we compare the computational and Monte Carlo efficiency of alternative proposed sampling schemes. The preferred algorithm provides reliable inference on parameters, the latent factor, and model space. The potential of the methodology is highlighted in an empirical study of 10 binary measures of socio-economic deprivation collected for 11,463 East Timorese households. The importance of conducting inference on the latent factor is motivated by constructing a poverty index using estimates of the factor. Compared to a linear Gaussian factor model, our model average improves out-of-sample fit. The relationships between the poverty index and observed variables uncovered by our approach are diverse and allow for a richer and more precise understanding of the dependence between overall deprivation and individual measures of well-being.     

具有人口转变经济增长模型中的分歧和多重增长路径

该文对Holger Sriulik~([1])给出的模型作了进一步的研究.证明在给定的技术水平下,描述模型的动力系统出现鞍结定分歧.当模型存在两个平衡点时,鞍点的稳定流形将y-k平面的第一像限分成两个区域,其左边为Malthus区域,该区域的所有轨道收敛于一个低水平的平衡点;其右边为非Malthus区域,该区域的轨道为正常的经济增长路径.经济可以通过提高技术水平或提高人均收入的"大冲击"方法逃离"Malthus贫困陷阱".