On Bayes and unbiased estimators of loss

We consider estimation of loss for generalized Bayes or pseudo-Bayes estimators of a multivariate normal mean vector, θ. In 3 and higher dimensions, the MLEX is UMVUE and minimax but is inadmissible. It is dominated by the James-Stein estimator and by many others. Johnstone (1988, On inadmissibility of some unbiased estimates of loss,Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics, IV (eds. S. S. Gupta and J. O. Berger), Vol. 1, 361–379, Springer, New York) considered the estimation of loss for the usual estimatorX and the James-Stein estimator. He found improvements over the Stein unbiased estimator of risk. In this paper, for a generalized Bayes point estimator of θ, we compare generalized Bayes estimators to unbiased estimators of loss. We find, somewhat surprisingly, that the unbiased estimator often dominates the corresponding generalized Bayes estimator of loss for priors which give minimax estimators in the original point estimation problem. In particular, we give a class of priors for which the generalized Bayes estimator of θ is admissible and minimax but for which the unbiased estimator of loss dominates the generalized Bayes estimator of loss. We also give a general inadmissibility result for a generalized Bayes estimator of loss. Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-97-04524.     

Geometric quadrisection in linear time, with application to VLSI placement

We consider the following problem: given a set of points in the plane, each with a weight, and capacities of the four quadrants, assign each point to one of the quadrants such that the total weight of points assigned to a quadrant does not exceed its capacity, and the total distance is minimized.

This problem is most important in placement of VLSI circuits and is likely to have other applications. It is NP-hard, but the fractional relaxation always has an optimal solution which is “almost” integral. Hence for large instances, it suffices to solve the fractional relaxation. The main result of this paper is a linear-time algorithm for this relaxation. It is based on a structure theorem describing optimal solutions by so-called “American maps” and makes sophisticated use of binary search techniques and weighted median computations.

This algorithm is a main subroutine of a VLSI placement tool that is used for the design of many of the most complex chips.     

Multilevel a posteriori error analysis for reaction–convection–diffusion problems

We present a new approach to the a posteriori error analysis of stable Galerkin approximations of reaction–convection–diffusion problems. It relies upon a non-standard variational formulation of the exact problem, based on the anisotropic wavelet decomposition of the equation residual into convection-dominated scales and diffusion-dominated scales. The associated norm, which is stronger than the standard energy norm, provides a robust (i.e., uniform in the convection limit) control over the streamline derivative of the solution. We propose an upper estimator and a lower estimator of the error, in this norm, between the exact solution and any finite dimensional approximation of it. We investigate the behaviour of such estimators, both theoretically and through numerical experiments. As an output of our analysis, we find that the lower estimator is quantitatively accurate and robust.     

一般线性模型下方差最小范数二次无偏估计的稳健性

本文给出了一般线性模型下,由最小二乘得到的方差估计与最小范数二次无偏估计相等的充分必要条件,并且当Gauss-Markov估计与最小二乘估计相等时,可以得到一个简单的等价条件。     

Nonparametric estimation and adaptive control in a class of finite Markov decision chains

We consider a class of Markov decision processes withfinite state and action spaces which, essentially, is determined by the following condition: The state space isirreducible under the action of any stationary policy. However, except by this restriction, the transition law iscompletely unknown to the controller. In this context, we find a set of policies under which thefrequency estimators of the transition law are strongly consistent and then, this result is applied to constructadaptive asymptotically discount-optimal policies.Dedicated to Professor Truman O. Lewis, on the occasion of his sixtieth birthdayThis research was supported in part by the Third World Academy of Sciences (TWAS) under Grant TWAS RG MP 898-152, and in part by the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACYT) under Grant A128CCOEO550 (MT-2).     

响应变量随机缺失下的半参变系数模型的均值估计

在响应变量随机缺失时,研究了半参数变系数模型响应变量均值的借补估计.首先利用完整个体估计模型中的参数与非参数部分,然后再用借补方法与加权借补方法估计响应变量的均值.最后求出了估计的渐近偏差与渐近方差,研究了所得到的估计的渐近性质,并进行模拟比较.     

条件泛函及其导数非参数估计的强一致收敛速度

研究了条件泛函及其导数的非参数估计,对随机与固定设计的条件泛函,分别利用核估计和非参数加权估计,在核函数及权函数满足一定条件下,证明了估计一致强收敛于待估函数的速度可达到最优。从而进一步推广和发展了Hrdle,etal.(1988)、Severini,etal.(1992)的许多结果。     

Optimizing in the class of Fuller modified limited information maximum likelihood estimators

A general class of Fuller modified maximum likelihood estimators are considered. It is shown that this class possesses finite moments. Asymptotic bias and asymptotic mean squared error are derived using small-σ expansions. A simulation study is carried out to compare different estimators in this class with standard estimators.     

优化灰导数白化值的无偏灰色GM(1,1)模型

通过优化灰导数白化值 ,建立了无偏的 GM(1,1)模型 ,给出了估计模型参数的方法 ,证明了无偏GM(1,1)模型具有白指数律重合性 ,提出了新的预测公式 .实例分析表明 ,新方法提高了模型的精度 ,扩大了模型的适用范围 .     

The de novo design of median molecules within a property range of interest

Summary In this paper an application is presented of the median molecule workflow to the de novo design of novel molecular entities with a property profile of interest. Median molecules are structures that are optimised to be similar to a set of existing molecules of interest as an approach for lead exploration and hopping. An overview of this workflow is provided together with an example of an instance using the similarity to camphor and menthol as objectives. The methodology of the experiments is defined and the workflow is applied to designing novel molecules for two physical property datasets: mean molecular polarisability and aqueous solubility. This paper concludes with a discussion of the characteristics of this method.