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1.
This paper examines the performance of Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) using fixed and variable benchmarking models. In
order to avoid the troublesome passive and active commodity and managed futures benchmarks (indices) when examining the performance
of CTAs, we innovate by using data envelopment analysis (DEA). Because this alternative class has non-linear returns due to
long/short positions, and derivatives (i.e., dynamic trading strategies), DEA can alleviate the problems usually associated
with these indices. The effectiveness of using benchmarking models in a DEA setting will provide investors with an alternative
technique in assessing the performance and identifying efficient CTAs. 相似文献
2.
The traditional use of LIBOR futures prices to obtain surrogates for the Eurodollar forward rates is proved to yield a systematic bias in the pricing of Eurodollar swaps when one assumes that the yield curve is well described by the Heath-Jarrow-Morton model. The resulting theoretical inequality is consistent with the empirical observations of Burghardt and Hoskins (1995), and it provide a theoretical basis for price anomalies that are suggested by more recent empirical data. 相似文献
3.
Fred Espen Benth 《Applied Mathematical Finance》2018,25(1):36-65
The recent introduction of wind power futures written on the German wind power production index has brought with it new interesting challenges in terms of modelling and pricing. Some particularities of this product are the strong seasonal component embedded in the underlying, the fact that the wind index is bounded from both above and below and also that the futures are settled against a synthetically generated spot index. Here, we consider the non-Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck type processes proposed by Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard in the context of modelling the wind power production index. We discuss the properties of the model and estimation of the model parameters. Further, the model allows for an analytical formula for pricing wind power futures. We provide an empirical study, where the model is calibrated to 37 years of German wind power production index that is synthetically generated assuming a constant level of installed capacity. Also, based on 1 year of observed prices for wind power futures with different delivery periods, we study the market price of risk. Generally, we find a negative risk premium whose magnitude decreases as the length of the delivery period increases. To further demonstrate the benefits of our proposed model, we address the pricing of European options written on wind power futures, which can be achieved through Fourier techniques. 相似文献
4.
Commodity futures have long been used to facilitate risk management and inventory stabilization. The study of commodity futures prices has attracted much attention in the literature because they are highly volatile and because commodities represent a large proportion of the export value in many developing countries. Previous research has found apparently contradictory findings about the presence of long memory or more generally, long-range dependence. This note investigates the nature of long-range dependence in the volatility of 14 energy and agricultural commodity futures price series using the improved Hurst coefficient (H) estimator of Abry, Teyssière and Veitch. This estimator is motivated by the ability of wavelets to detect self-similarity and also enables a test for the stability of H. The results show evidence of long-range dependence for all 14 commodities and of a non-stationary H for 9 of 14 commodities. 相似文献
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6.
云天铨 《应用数学和力学(英文版)》2001,(1)
1 MeaningandMethodsofStudyingofFinancialDerivativesFinancialderivativesarethosefinancialproductswhicharederivedfrombasicasserts (orunderlyinginstrucments) (e .g .stock ,bond ,currency ,interestrate,etc.)oftraditionalmarkets(e.g .stockmarket,bond’smarket,currency… 相似文献
7.
We use the information in intraday data to forecast the volatility of crude oil at a horizon of 1–66 days using a variety of models relying on the decomposition of realized variance in its positive or negative (semivariances) part and its continuous or discontinuous part (jumps). We show the importance of these decompositions in predictive (in-sample) regressions using a number of specifications. Nevertheless, an important empirical finding comes from an out-of-sample analysis which unambiguously shows the limited interest of considering these components. Overall, our results indicates that a simple autoregressive specification mimicking long memory and using past realized variances as predictors does not perform significantly worse than more sophisticated models which include the various components of realized variance. 相似文献
8.
曹洁 《数学的实践与认识》2017,(7):36-43
分别选取WIND商品指数和CRB指数作为衡量我国商品期货市场及国际商品期货市场综合价格的指标,利用时变SJC-Copula模型构建两者之间的动态相依结构,通过动态的尾部相关系数来探究我国商品期货市场与国际市场间的尾部相关性.实证结果表明,我国商品期货市场与国际市场间的上尾相关性要强于下尾相关性,即当商品期货价格上涨时,两个市场间更易发生风险传染. 相似文献
9.
本文提出了一种双树拼接的改进BDT模型,在此基础上发展出两种方法为中国市场上的国债期货和择券期权定价。其中"直接定价法"直接使用双树拼接树图,"两步定价法"则是经期权调整的持有成本模型。对中国TF1403和T1603国债期货合约的实证研究表明,两种方法都是合理的,且各有优势,"两步定价法"与市场价格差异较小,"直接定价法"与市场价格同步性较高。 相似文献
10.
利用Johansen协整检验、Granger因果检验以及向量误差修正(VEC)模型、脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析,从三个不同的角度对我国铝期货、铝现货和废铝市场价格间的动态关系进行了实证分析,研究结果表明:从引导关系看,铝期货价格与铝现货价格之间具有协整关系,并且铝期货价格对铝现货价格及废铝价格具有单向价格引导关系,铝现货价格对废铝价格具有单向价格引导关系;从冲击反应看,铝期货对铝现货的冲击比较强烈,而铝期货对废铝以及铝现货对废铝的冲击相对比较和缓;从价格发现程度看,铝期货市场具有最强的价格发现能力,铝现货价格发现能力次之,废铝的价格发现能力最弱,表明铝期货是价格发现过程的主要驱动力量. 相似文献