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1.
2.
Hidetoshi Shimodaira 《Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics》1997,49(3):395-410
The asymptotic error probability of Linhart's model selection test isevaluated, and compared with the nominal significance level. We examine thecase where the expected discrepancies of the candidate models from the truemodel are asymptotically equal. The local alternatives method is employed inthe limiting operation of the asymptotic evaluation. Although the errorprobability under the null hypothesis is actually shown to be equal to orless than the level for most situations, intolerable violations of the errorcontrol are observed for nested models: It is often erroneously concludedthat the smaller model is significantly better than the larger model. Toprevent this violation, a modification of Linhart's test statistic isproposed. The effectiveness of the proposed test is confirmed throughtheoretical analysis and numerical simulations. 相似文献
3.
We study the expected delay in cyclic polling models with general ‘branching-type’ service disciplines. For this class of
models, which contains models with exhaustive and gated service as special cases, we obtain closed-form expressions for the
expected delay under standard heavy-traffic scalings. We identify a single parameter associated with the service discipline
at each queue, which we call the ‘exhaustiveness’. We show that the scaled expected delay figures depend on the service policies
at the queues only through the exhaustiveness of each of the service disciplines. This implies that the influence of different
service disciplines, but with the same exhaustiveness, on the expected delays at the queues becomes the same when the system
reaches saturation. This observation leads to a new classification of the service disciplines. In addition, we show monotonicity
of the scaled expected delays with respect to the exhaustiveness of the service disciplines. This induces a complete ordering
in terms of efficiency of the service disciplines. The results also lead to new rules for optimization of the system performance
with respect to the service disciplines at the queues. Further, the exact asymptotic results suggest simple expected waiting-time
approximations for polling models in heavy traffic. Numerical experiments show that the accuracy of the approximations is
excellent for practical heavy-traffic scenarios.
This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
4.
This paper proposes a new method that extends the efficient global optimization to address stochastic black-box systems. The
method is based on a kriging meta-model that provides a global prediction of the objective values and a measure of prediction
uncertainty at every point. The criterion for the infill sample selection is an augmented expected improvement function with
desirable properties for stochastic responses. The method is empirically compared with the revised simplex search, the simultaneous
perturbation stochastic approximation, and the DIRECT methods using six test problems from the literature. An application
case study on an inventory system is also documented. The results suggest that the proposed method has excellent consistency
and efficiency in finding global optimal solutions, and is particularly useful for expensive systems. 相似文献
5.
给出动态随机弹性的概念及运算性质,讨论了动态随机弹性在期权定价模型中的应用.主要结果有:(1)在波动率为常数时,期权价格对的弹性,得到了动态随机弹性服从运动,并给出了相应的经济解释;(2)由于波动率一般不是常数,也是随机过程,因此本文进一步研究了期权价格对波动率的弹性,就股票价格的波动情况给出了数学描述和金融意义上的解释. 相似文献
6.
本主要介绍原木经销商在周期内原木变价销售情况下的最佳期初贮存量的决策方法,在建立期望机会成本的数学模型基础上,探讨原木随机存贮策略的最优化问题。 相似文献
7.
保险公司离散型崩溃模型研究 总被引:4,自引:1,他引:3
本文提出并讨论了含投资因素、红利分配因素的崩溃模型,得出了关于崩溃概率、保险公司的期望寿命的结论,这些结论推广了没有考虑投资因素的崩溃模型的相关结论. 相似文献
8.
航空公司在给定的运力和机队配置条件下,如何适应航线需求的不断变化而合理地分配运力,使航空公司的经营效益最大化是我国航空经营管理的一个重大课题.根据航班效益分析,在一定的经营时间,航行班次的条件下,建立一个航线贡献最大化的含有随机变量的动态规划模型.求解方法是先用M ON TE C ARLO方法计算机仿真把模型转化为非线性的整数规划.再用动态规划中资源分配算法求出模型的最优解,编排最优各航线规划. 相似文献
9.
Assume that the probability density function for the lifetime of a newly designed product has the form: [H(t)/Q()] exp{–H(t)/Q()}. The Exponential(), Rayleigh, WeibullW(, ) and Pareto pdf's are special cases.Q() will be assumed to have an inverse Gamma prior. Assume thatm independent products are to be tested with replacement. A Bayesian Sequential Reliability Demonstration Testing plan is used to eigher accept the product and start formal production, or reject the product for reengineering. The test criterion is the intersection of two goals, a minimal goal to begin production and a mature product goal. The exact values of various risks and the distribution of total number of failures are evaluated. Based on a result about a Poisson process, the expected stopping time for the exponential failure time is also found. Included in these risks and expected stopping times are frequentist versions, thereof, so that the results also provide frequentist answers for a class of interesting stopping rules.This research was supported by NSF grants DMS-8703620 and DMS-8923071, and forms part of the Ph.D. Thesis of the first author, the development of which was supported in part by a David Ross grant at Purdue University. The authors thank the editors and a referee for insightful comments and suggestions. 相似文献
10.
Joe Zhu 《Annals of Operations Research》1996,66(5):311-335
This article employs new data envelopment analysis/assurance region (DEA/AR) methods to evaluate the efficiency of the 35 textile factories of the Nanjing Textiles Corporation (NTC), Nanjing, China. The returns to scale (RTS) of these factories were studied without assuming that the optimal DEA solutions were unique. All DMUs are identified with pointsE (Extreme Efficient),E (Efficient but not an extreme point) andF (Frontier but not efficient). We then further identify the nonfrontier DMUs with pointsNE, NE andNF according to whether they are projected onto a point inE, E, orF en route to evaluating their performances. All of the inefficient factories were in classNF and had unique optimal primal-dual solution pairs. Consequently, the solution pairs satisfy the strong complementary slackness condition (SCSC). Application of cone-ratio (CR) ARs reduced significantly the number of factories in classE, and showed that some AR-efficient factories were more flexible in adopting the mixture of central planning and market economies that China currently is trying to use. Also, linked-cone (LC) ARs were applied to measure maximum and minimum profit ratios. The SCSC multiplier space approach was utilized to analyze the sensitivity of the efficiency results to potential errors in the data with and without ARs. The results in this article suggest that collective units had a better performance than state-owned units in the two consecutive years analyzed.This paper was written while the author was at the School of Economics and Management, Southeast University, Nanjing 210018, P.R. China. 相似文献