Assessing the Error Probability of the Model Selection Test

The asymptotic error probability of Linhart's model selection test isevaluated, and compared with the nominal significance level. We examine thecase where the expected discrepancies of the candidate models from the truemodel are asymptotically equal. The local alternatives method is employed inthe limiting operation of the asymptotic evaluation. Although the errorprobability under the null hypothesis is actually shown to be equal to orless than the level for most situations, intolerable violations of the errorcontrol are observed for nested models: It is often erroneously concludedthat the smaller model is significantly better than the larger model. Toprevent this violation, a modification of Linhart's test statistic isproposed. The effectiveness of the proposed test is confirmed throughtheoretical analysis and numerical simulations.     

Extended convergence results for the method of multipliers for nonstrictly binding inequality constraints

In this paper, we extend the classical convergence and rate of convergence results for the method of multipliers for equality constrained problems to general inequality constrained problems, without assuming the strict complementarity hypothesis at the local optimal solution. Instead, we consider an alternative second-order sufficient condition for a strict local minimum, which coincides with the standard one in the case of strict complementary slackness. As a consequence, new stopping rules are derived in order to guarantee a local linear rate of convergence for the method, even if the current Lagrangian is only asymptotically minimized in this more general setting. These extended results allow us to broaden the scope of applicability of the method of multipliers, in order to cover all those problems admitting loosely binding constraints at some optimal solution. This fact is not meaningless, since in practice this kind of problem seems to be more the rule rather than the exception.In proving the different results, we follow the classical primaldual approach to the method of multipliers, considering the approximate minimizers for the original augmented Lagrangian as the exact solutions for some adequate approximate augmented Lagrangian. In particular, we prove a general uniform continuity property concerning both their primal and their dual optimal solution set maps, a property that could be useful beyond the scope of this paper. This approach leads to very simple proofs of the preliminary results and to a straight-forward proof of the main results.The author gratefully acknowledges the referees for their helpful comments and remarks. This research was supported by FONDECYT (Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Technológico de Chile).     

提前还贷及其隐含期权的分析

可提前还款的定期贷款是隐含着期权的利率衍生物，本文建立CIR利率模型下可提前还款的定期贷款的数学模型，通过离散偏微分方程，建立了模型的计算方法，讨论了随机利率对提前还贷的影响．     

Global Optimization of Stochastic Black-Box Systems via Sequential Kriging Meta-Models

This paper proposes a new method that extends the efficient global optimization to address stochastic black-box systems. The method is based on a kriging meta-model that provides a global prediction of the objective values and a measure of prediction uncertainty at every point. The criterion for the infill sample selection is an augmented expected improvement function with desirable properties for stochastic responses. The method is empirically compared with the revised simplex search, the simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation, and the DIRECT methods using six test problems from the literature. An application case study on an inventory system is also documented. The results suggest that the proposed method has excellent consistency and efficiency in finding global optimal solutions, and is particularly useful for expensive systems.     

动态随机弹性在期权定价中的应用

给出动态随机弹性的概念及运算性质,讨论了动态随机弹性在期权定价模型中的应用.主要结果有:(1)在波动率为常数时,期权价格对的弹性,得到了动态随机弹性服从运动,并给出了相应的经济解释;(2)由于波动率一般不是常数,也是随机过程,因此本文进一步研究了期权价格对波动率的弹性,就股票价格的波动情况给出了数学描述和金融意义上的解释.     

An Extension Landau-Lifshitz Model in Studying Soft Ferromagnetic Films

In this paper, we propose a model in studying soft ferromagnetic films, which is readily accessible experimentally. By using penalty approximation and compensated compactness, we prove that the dynamical equation in thin film has a local weak solution. Moreover, the corresponding linear equation is also dealt with in great detail.     

原木随机存贮策略的最优化问题

本主要介绍原木经销商在周期内原木变价销售情况下的最佳期初贮存量的决策方法，在建立期望机会成本的数学模型基础上，探讨原木随机存贮策略的最优化问题。     

保险管理决策中的两个问题

本文运用风险决策理论建立了分保限额与红利分派两个保险管理决策问题的数学模型,从理论和实践两个方面讨论了最优管理策略,并给出了计算实例。     

Partially Strictly Monotone and Nonlinear Penalty Functions for Constrained Mathematical Programs

We introduce the concept of partially strictly monotone functions and apply it to construct a class of nonlinear penalty functions for a constrained optimization problem. This class of nonlinear penalty functions includes some (nonlinear) penalty functions currently used in the literature as special cases. Assuming that the perturbation function is lower semi-continuous, we prove that the sequence of optimal values of nonlinear penalty problems converges to that of the original constrained optimization problem. First-order and second-order necessary optimality conditions of nonlinear penalty problems are derived by converting the optimality of penalty problems into that of a smooth constrained vector optimization problem. This approach allows for a concise derivation of optimality conditions of nonlinear penalty problems. Finally, we prove that each limit point of the second-order stationary points of the nonlinear penalty problems is a second-order stationary point of the original constrained optimization problem.     

保险公司离散型崩溃模型研究

本文提出并讨论了含投资因素、红利分配因素的崩溃模型，得出了关于崩溃概率、保险公司的期望寿命的结论，这些结论推广了没有考虑投资因素的崩溃模型的相关结论．