On the distribution of the number of retrials

We consider queuing systems where customers are not allowed to queue, instead of that they make repeated attempts, or retrials, in order to enter service after some time. We obtain the distribution of the number of retrials produced by a tagged customer, until he finds an available server.     

个人住房抵押贷款模式及应用

提出了等比还贷,等差还贷,基于等额的灵活还贷和混合还贷4种模式,举例分析并指出了各模式适合的客户类型,最后对贷款利率调整时各模式的有关变化作了进一步的探讨,各种还贷模式可根据具体情况在实践中推广应用。     

带有回报计划的动态客户关系管理模型及实验应用分析

在客户最大化效用及公司最大化CLV的动态环境下。对所提的带有回报计划的动态客户关系管理模型用于某超市的客户数据库中，发现模型的结果对这类客户是适用的。并给出了不同的客户状态空间对应的有效营销组合策略。结果表明：合适的回报计划可以促进客户的购买、提高公司的利润及缓解价格竞争。回报极限应该比客户的平均购买水平偏高，回报率应该与回报极限的改变方向一致。计划的时间范围应定在一年左右比较合适。对于累积购买水平较高的客户一般不邮寄商品信息。在回报计划的初期与末期不用打折。中期对那些购买次数很少的客户可以实行相应的降价策略。     

Analysis of ordered categorical data to develop control charts for monitoring customer loyalty

In the highly competitive business environment of today, the cost to attract new customers is much higher than the cost required to maintain the existing ones. To keep the balance between the acquisition rate and defection rate through executing offensive and defensive marketing policies, it is required to have real time information using an efficient method to monitor customer loyalty. The relationship between customer loyalty and customer satisfaction should be kept in mind when one develops a method for loyalty monitoring. This paper presents several control charts classified in two groups based on the scale used to assess customer loyalty. In the first group of control charts, customer loyalty is considered as a binary random variable modeled by Bernoulli distribution whilst in the second group, an ordinal scale is considered to report loyalty level. Performance comparison of the proposed techniques using ARL criterion indicates that chi‐square and likelihood‐ratio control charts developed based on Pearson chi‐square statistic and ordinal logistic regression model respectively are able to rapidly detect the significant changes in loyalty behavior. To show how to apply the procedures and how to interpret their results, two illustrative synthetic cases are also explained. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于SOM&SVM组合分类器的客户细分方法实证研究

为解决传统的RFM客户细分方法还不能很好地刻画客户行为,同时也没有就RFM指标权重进行分析这一问题,在RFM指标的基础上扩充了客户细分的指标体系,并提出了基于AHP的RFM指标权重确定策略.鉴于传统的单一分类器存在的很多缺陷,提出基于SOM&SVM的组合分类器模型,充分利用SOM和SVM单一分类器各自的优点,综合两种分类器的分类信息,避免单一分类器可能存在的片面性,从而提高分类的准确性.最后通过实例对上述模型的有效性进行验证.     

顾客参与研发过程的价值共创机理与策略研究

顾客参与企业研发是产品价值创造的最初始过程,不仅提高产品接受度、满足顾客需求,而且为企业增加收入,但同时也产生相应成本。文章探究顾客参与研发的系统中,顾客、企业和产品的价值共创行为以及企业决策如何影响三者价值;立足多目标视角,充分考虑企业与顾客的收益、成本,采用系统动力学方法建立顾客参与研发过程的动态价值共创模型,全面探究系统内部共创机理。在模型基础上,重点就企业产品价格、交互次数以及激励资金比例等策略进行仿真,使企业、顾客及产品实现价值共创。结论如下:(1)随着顾客、企业交互次数的增多,顾客参与研发过程同样具备一般产品生命周期导入期、成长期、成熟期以及衰退期的特点。(2)系统存在最优交互次数;且最优交互次数随着研发投入比例减少而增加。(3)在不考虑参与顾客获取激励资金的情况下,企业针对不同顾客群(参与研发顾客与普通购买顾客)进行定价,在最优交互次数状态下,统一定价模式优于差别定价模式,将为企业带来更大的收益。     

基于顾客资产驱动因素与同辈影响的青少年购买行为研究

研究的主要内容围绕着顾客资产驱动因素及同辈影响对青少年消费者购买意向和实际购买行为的影响展开.在文献综述的基础上,以运动品牌为例,分析价值资产、品牌资产、关系资产以及同辈影响对于青少年消费者购买意向的影响.实证研究表明,同辈影响对于青少年消费者购买意向有着非常显著的影响,同辈群体的炫耀、谈论与推荐行为越多,则青少年消费者的购买意向越强烈.与此同时,购买意向对于实际购买行为的影响虽是正向且显著地,但受到购买惯性的影响而减弱.结论一定程度上从统计上论证了青少年消费者的购买特点,同时也为运动品牌的青少年产品营销活动提供了参考依据.     

基于战略顾客行为的最优定价与容量选择模型

研究了当市场中同时存在战略顾客和短视顾客时零售商的最优定价与容量选择问题。零售商在正常销售阶段和出清销售阶段制定不同的销售价格,同时通过容量选择影响战略顾客的购买行为,而战略顾客则根据零售商的定价和容量选择确定最优购买时机。分别分析了零售商在无限容量时的定价决策、固定价格时的容量选择、固定容量时的定价决策以及有限容量下的定价与容量选择四种情形。研究结果表明,零售商在无容量限制时的最优定价决策是制定两阶段定价策略,在固定价格时的最优容量选择依赖于模型的参数,而当零售商的容量固定时,部分满足出清销售阶段的顾客需求始终优于完全满足出清销售阶段的顾客需求。     

考虑预付定金和退货的SMPEs产品定价与优化策略

借鉴中小制造型企业(SMPEs)在线渠道预售模式,考虑市场中存在预付订金和不预付订金的顾客,并将其退货情况引入到生产商利润表达式中,构建确定性和随机性市场需求下的SMPEs产品销售利润最大化模型,推导生产商产品最优定价的解析解;对比两种销售模式的利润,得到了生产商选择不同销售策略的条件。进一步考虑预付定金的产品数量、预交定金比例、退货数量是关于价格折扣敏感的情况,采用拉格朗日乘子法对生产商产品定价及优化问题进行研究,分析求得生产商销售策略(产品定价和价格折扣)的近似最优解。最后,通过数值算例对研究结论进行了验证并给出经济学解释。     

A review ofL=λW and extensions

A fundamental principle of queueing theory isL=W (Little's law), which states that the time-average or expected time-stationary number of customers in a system is equal to the product of the arrival rate and the customer-average or expected customer-stationary time each customer spends in the system. This principle is now well known and frequently applied. However, in recent years there have been extensions, such as H=G and the continuous, distributional, ordinal and central-limit-theorem versions, which show that theL=W relation, when viewed properly, has much more power than was previously realized. Moreover, connections have been established between H=G and other fundamental relations, such as the rate conservation law and PASTA (Poisson arrivals see time averages), which show that there is a much greater unity in the overall theory than was previously realized. This paper provides a review.This paper is dedicated to the memory of our colleague Professor Peter Franken (1937–1989), who contributed greatly to the subject of this paper and to queueing theory more generally.