中国证券市场股指波动的条件异方差特性分析

股指的波动具有持续性、集聚性 ,如何进行判别 ?本文用 Garch模型理论探讨沪深股指的这种条件异方差特征 ,进一步分析波动是否影响股指未来变化 ,以及股市对利好、利空的消息是否存在不对称的反映。同时 ,比较不同类型的股指的共性及差异 ,并对上述现象作了解释和说明。     

Analytic Feynman integrals of transforms of variation of cylinder type functions over Wiener paths in abstract Wiener space

In this paper, we evaluate various analytic Feynman integrals of first variation, conditional first variation, Fourier-Feynman transform and conditional Fourier-Feynman transform of cylinder type functions defined over Wiener paths in abstract Wiener space. We also derive the analytic Feynman integral of the conditional Fourier-Feynman transform for the product of the cylinder type functions which define the functions in a Banach algebra introduced by Yoo, with n linear factors.     

广义极限鞅的一个收敛定理

本文引进了广义极限鞅的概念,证明了 L~1有界的广义极限鞅 a.s.收敛于—可积随机变量。这样推广了通常极限鞅的相应收敛定理,并回答了 Stout 提出的问题:L~1有界的弱鞅在一定的条件下是 a.s.收敛的。     

Computation of the quasi-stationary distributions inM(n)/GI/1/K andGI/M(n)/1/K queues

In this paper, we provide numerical means to compute the quasi-stationary (QS) distributions inM/GI/1/K queues with state-dependent arrivals andGI/M/1/K queues with state-dependent services. These queues are described as finite quasi-birth-death processes by approximating the general distributions in terms of phase-type distributions. Then, we reduce the problem of obtaining the QS distribution to determining the Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue of some Hessenberg matrix. Based on these arguments, we develop a numerical algorithm to compute the QS distributions. The doubly-limiting conditional distribution is also obtained by following this approach. Since the results obtained are free of phase-type representations, they are applicable for general distributions. Finally, numerical examples are given to demonstrate the power of our method.     

A Bayesian analysis for the seismic data on Taiwan

A Bayesian approach is used to analyze the seismic events with magnitudes at least 4.7 on Taiwan. Following the idea proposed by Ogata (1988,Journal of the American Statistical Association,83, 9–27), an epidemic model for the process of occurrence times given the observed magnitude values is considered, incorporated with gamma prior distributions for the parameters in the model, while the hyper-parameters of the prior are essentially determined by the seismic data in an earlier period. Bayesian inference is made on the conditional intensity function via Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The results yield acceptable accuracies in predicting large earthquake events within short time periods.     

中国股票市场波动特性的实证研究

本文以上证综指和深成分指数的日收益率为研究对象 ,应用 GARCH、TARCH模型理论 ,进一步分析了日收益率波动的条件异方差性、非对称性 ,同时比较了两个股票市场的不同波动特征     

Conditional expectation of integrands and random sets

The conditional expectation of integrands and random sets is the main tool of stochastic optimization. This work wishes to make up for the lack of real synthesis about this subject. We improve the existing hypothesis and simplify the corresponding proofs. In the convex case we especially study the problem of the exchange of conditional expectation and subdifferential operators.     

超重核266Hs形成截面的入射道依赖

计算和比较了²⁶Mg+²⁴⁴Cm, ²⁷Al+²⁴³Am和³²S+²³⁸U3个反应系统的俘获截面和复合核²⁷⁰Hs形成截面. 在俘获截面计算中, 考虑了靶核形变效应. 穿越库仑势垒后, 反应系统由熔合谷进入不对称裂变谷. 只有越过不对称裂变谷中的条件鞍点的事件才进入复合核组态. 我们用考虑中子流动和径向运动的二参量Smoluchowski扩散方程来处理中间阶段的动力学过程. 此外, 还计算了经4n蒸发形成超重核²⁶⁶Hs的截面. 研究表明, 入射道的势垒分布, 中间阶段的条件鞍点高度对俘获截面, 复合核形成几率, 以及最终的超重核形成截面有显著影响.     

带ARMA(1,1)条件异方差相关的随机波动模型的MCMC算法

我们首先提出了一个带ARMA(1,1)条件异方差相关的随机波动模型,它是基本的随机波动模型的一个自然的推广.进一步,对于这一新模型,我们给出了一个马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(M CM C)算法.最后,利用该模型的模拟数据,展示了M CM C算法在这种模型中的应用.