具有急慢性阶段的MSIS流行病模型阈值和稳定性结果

系统研究了具有急性和慢性两个阶段的MSIS流行病模型.由两节构成,第1节建立和研究了具有急慢性阶段的MSIS流行病模型;第2节在第1节的基础上建立和研究了具有慢性病病程的MSIS流行病模型.第1节的模型是四个常微分方程构成的方程组.第2节的模型既含有常微分方程,又含有偏微分方程.运用微分方程和积分方程中的理论和方法,得到了这两个模型再生数R0的表达式.证明了当R0<1时,无病平衡态是全局渐近稳定性,给出了各模型地方病平衡态的存在性和稳定性条件.     

A DISCRETE AGE STRUCTURED SI MODEL OF TRACHEAL MITE (Acarapis woodi (RENNIE)) INFESTATION OF HONEY BEES (Apis mellifera L.) AT THE COLONY LEVEL

This paper presents a discrete age structured SI model of tracheal mite (Acarapis woodi (Rennie)) infestation of honey bees (Apis mellifera L.) at the colony level. The model describes the elevated honey bee attrition during winter and predicts that winter brood rearing should promote colony survival by decreasing the colony's infestation and increasing the colony's population. The model also predicts that swarming and the artificial removal of part of the colony's forager honey bees should reduce the colony's infestation level.     

Age Analysis of Status Updating System with Probabilistic Packet Preemption

The age of information (AoI) metric was proposed to measure the freshness of messages obtained at the terminal node of a status updating system. In this paper, the AoI of a discrete time status updating system with probabilistic packet preemption is investigated by analyzing the steady state of a three-dimensional discrete stochastic process. We assume that the queue used in the system is Ber/Geo/1/2*/η, which represents that the system size is 2 and the packet in the buffer can be preempted by a fresher packet with probability η. Instead of considering the system’s AoI separately, we use a three-dimensional state vector (n,m,l) to simultaneously track the real-time changes of the AoI, the age of a packet in the server, and the age of a packet waiting in the buffer. We give the explicit expression of the system’s average AoI and show that the average AoI of the system without packet preemption is obtained by letting η=0. When η is set to 1, the mean of the AoI of the system with a Ber/Geo/1/2* queue is obtained as well. Combining the results we have obtained and comparing them with corresponding average continuous AoIs, we propose a possible relationship between the average discrete AoI with the Ber/Geo/1/c queue and the average continuous AoI with the M/M/1/c queue. For each of two extreme cases where η=0 and η=1, we also determine the stationary distribution of AoI using the probability generation function (PGF) method. The relations between the average AoI and the packet preemption probability η, as well as the AoI’s distribution curves in two extreme cases, are illustrated by numerical simulations. Notice that the probabilistic packet preemption may occur, for example, in an energy harvest (EH) node of a wireless sensor network, where the packet in the buffer can be replaced only when the node collects enough energy. In particular, to exhibit the usefulness of our idea and methods and highlight the merits of considering discrete time systems, in this paper, we provide detailed discussions showing how the results about continuous AoI are derived by analyzing the corresponding discrete time system and how the discrete age analysis is generalized to the system with multiple sources. In terms of packet service process, we also propose an idea to analyze the AoI of a system when the service time distribution is arbitrary.     

A simple polymer electrolyte membrane system for enrichment of low-level tritium (3H) in environmental water samples

Tritium (³H) is an essential tracer of the Earth's water cycle; yet widespread adoption of tritium in hydrologic studies remains a challenge because of analytical barriers to quantification and detection of ³H by electrolytic pre-concentration. Here, we propose a simple tritium electrolytic enrichment system based on the use of solid polymer electrolyte membranes (PEMs) that can be used to enrich ³H in 250–3000?mL environmental water samples to a 10-mL final volume. The IAEA PEM-³H system reported here can produce high enrichment factors (>70-fold) and, importantly, removes some of the deterrents to conventional ³H enrichments methods, including the use of toxic electrolysis and neutralization chemicals, spike standards, a complex electrolysis apparatus that requires extensive cooling and temperature controls, and improves precision by eliminating the need for tracking recovery gravimetrics. Preliminary results with varying operating conditions show ³H enrichments to 70-fold and higher are feasible, spanning a wide range of tritium activities from 5 to 150 TU with a precision of ～4.5?%. Further work is needed to quantify inter-sample memory and to establish lower ³H detection limits. The IAEA PEM-³H system is open source, with 3-D CAD and design files made freely available for adoption and improvement by others.     

0Interacting model of new agegraphic dark energy:observational constraints and age problem

Many dark energy models fail to pass the cosmic age test because of the old quasar APM 08279+5255 at redshift z=3.91,the ΛCDMmodel and holographic dark energy models being no exception.Inthis paper,we focus onthe topic of the age problem inthe new agegraphic dark energy(NADE)model.We determine the age of the universe in the NADE model by fitting the observational data,including type Ia supernovae(SNIa),baryon acoustic oscillations(BAO)and the cosmic microwave background(CMB).We find that the NADE model also...     

Logging damage and injured tree mortality in tropical forest management

Using insights from the forest ecology literature, we analyze the effect of injured trees on stand composition and carbon stored in above‐ground biomass and the implications for forest management decisions. Results from a Faustmann model with data for a tropical forest on Kalimantan show that up to 50% of the basal area of the stand before harvest can consist of injured trees. Considering injured trees leads to an increase in the amount of carbon in above‐ground biomass of up to 165%. These effects are larger under reduced impact logging than under conventional logging. The effects on land expectation value and cutting cycle are relatively small. The results suggest that considering injured trees in models for tropical forest management is important for the correct assessment of the potential of financial programs to store carbon and conserve forest ecosystem services in managed tropical forests, such as reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and payment for ecosystem services. Recommendations for Resource Managers

• Considering the role of injured trees is important for managing tropical forests
• These trees can cover up to 50% of basal area and contain more than 50% of the carbon stored in above‐ground biomass
• Reduced impact logging leads to a larger basal area of injured trees and more carbon stored in injured trees than conventional logging
• Injured trees play an important role when assessing the potential for carbon storage in the context of payment for forest ecosystem services.

     

Naphthalene and benzene levels in microenvironments associated with potential exposure: new and old apartments with moth repellents,and cabins of passenger cars

A lesser degree of information is available with respect to microenvironments associated with potential exposure to naphthalene, in comparison with other volatile organic compounds. The current study investigated the levels of benzene as well as naphthalene, both in the indoor and outdoor air of apartments and in the cabins of passenger cars. Two groups of 20 apartment buildings (20 new and 20 old) were chosen on the basis of the selection criteria (apartment location and size). In addition, 10 actual commuters were recruited for this study. The equal number of drivers was recruited for the study for comparison of two types of fuels for vehicles (five drivers of gasoline-fuelled and five drivers of diesel-fuelled passenger cars). Indoor naphthalene concentrations were similar between old and new apartments, while the benzene concentrations in new apartments were significantly higher than those of old apartments. The naphthalene concentrations in bedrooms, where wardrobes with moth repellent (MRs) were placed, were significantly higher than those for living rooms where no MRs were present. In turn, these indoor concentrations were significantly higher than outdoor levels. It is noteworthy that the mean and median values of naphthalene measured in the bedrooms exceeded the USEPA RfC (inhalation reference concentration) of 3?µg?m^?3, and the living room values were close to the RfC, while the residential benzene levels exceeded the European benzene limit of 5?µg?m^?3. In contrast, the maximum outdoor levels were well below that of the RfC. The use of passenger cars appeared to be a significant daily activity for both naphthalene and benzene exposure. The naphthalene-to-benzene ratios varied with the type of microenvironments. Both the indoor naphthalene and benzene concentrations in the present study were much higher than those of other studies.     

Two Zn(II)‐based meta‐organic frameworks: Selective detection of antibiotics and treatment activity on age‐related macular degeneration by reducing inflammasome activation

Via utilizing the mixed‐ligand method, two novel Zn(II)‐containing meta‐organic frameworks with the chemical formula of {[Zn(L)(5‐HIP)]·H₂O}_n ( 1 ) and [Zn(L)(2,6‐NDC)]_n ( 2 ) were prepared under the solvothermal conditions by applying aromatic dicarboxylic acids ligands (5‐H₂HIP = 5‐hydroxyisophthalic acid; 2,6‐H₂NDC = 2,6‐naphthalenedicarboxylic acid) and 1,4‐bis(benzimidazol‐1‐yl)‐2‐butylene (L). Due to its good water stability as well as the strong luminescent emission around room temperature, complex 2 has the high selectivity and sensibility of fluorescence detection to the ceftriaxone sodium (a kind of antibiotic) with the detection limit up to ppm lever. The treatment activity of the compounds on age‐related macular degeneration was assessed and the specific mechanism was investigated. First of all, the inflammasome activation in the endothelial cells of retina was evaluated with western blot. In addition to this, the down‐stream production of the inflammasome activation was also measured with ELISA detection kit.