上海基础房价相关指标及走势的分析与研究

基础房价的相关指标及其走势一直是大众关心的热门话题．本文通过对上海基础房价相关指标的分析，建立了市场房价走势的两个数学模型．模型一：在相关性分析的基础上利用主成分分析消除指标间的共线性，再用回归拟合房价模型并进行预测；模型二：在相关性分析的基础上利用核估计方法预测出房价．继呵对2005年下半年的房价走势进行了预测，得出的结果与实际情况相吻合．     

Randomly censored partially linear single-index models

This paper proposes a method for estimation of a class of partially linear single-index models with randomly censored samples. The method provides a flexible way for modelling the association between a response and a set of predictor variables when the response variable is randomly censored. It presents a technique for “dimension reduction” in semiparametric censored regression models and generalizes the existing accelerated failure-time models for survival analysis. The estimation procedure involves three stages: first, transform the censored data into synthetic data or pseudo-responses unbiasedly; second, obtain quasi-likelihood estimates of the regression coefficients in both linear and single-index components by an iteratively algorithm; finally, estimate the unknown nonparametric regression function using techniques for univariate censored nonparametric regression. The estimators for the regression coefficients are shown to be jointly root-n consistent and asymptotically normal. In addition, the estimator for the unknown regression function is a local linear kernel regression estimator and can be estimated with the same efficiency as all the parameters are known. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to illustrate the proposed methodology.     

条件泛函及其导数非参数估计的强一致收敛速度

研究了条件泛函及其导数的非参数估计,对随机与固定设计的条件泛函,分别利用核估计和非参数加权估计,在核函数及权函数满足一定条件下,证明了估计一致强收敛于待估函数的速度可达到最优。从而进一步推广和发展了Hrdle,etal.(1988)、Severini,etal.(1992)的许多结果。     

Levy area for the free Brownian motion: existence and non-existence

This note extends the work of Capitaine (J. Funct. Anal. 179 (1) (2001) 153) on the Levy area process for the free Brownian motion in two directions. First, we reprove that a Levy area for the Free Brownian motion exists in the Von Neumann tensor product, by exhibiting a non-commutative Burkholder-Davis-Gundy type inequality. Then, we show that there does not exist a Levy area in the projective tensor product.     

Rough隶属函数关于集合并与交的一种高精度计算方法

近些年来，许多处理近似问题的方法陆续被提出，其中利用Rough集理论计算两个集合的并和交的Rough隶属函数方法是被用较多的一种方法，但毕竟该方法精度较差。为此，介绍了一种精度较高的计算两个集合的并和交的Rough隶属函数方法，它克服了前者利用Rough集理论计算Rough隶属函数的复杂性，而迎来了简单和高精度的特点。     

Semi-classical limit of the bottom of spectrum of a Schrödinger operator on a path space over a compact Riemannian manifold

We determine the limit of the bottom of spectrum of Schrödinger operators with variable coefficients on Wiener spaces and path spaces over finite-dimensional compact Riemannian manifolds in the semi-classical limit. These are extensions of the results in [S. Aida, Semiclassical limit of the lowest eigenvalue of a Schrödinger operator on a Wiener space, J. Funct. Anal. 203 (2) (2003) 401-424]. The problem on path spaces over Riemannian manifolds is considered as a problem on Wiener spaces by using Ito's map. However the coefficient operator is not a bounded linear operator and the dependence on the path is not continuous in the uniform convergence topology if the Riemannian curvature tensor on the underling manifold is not equal to 0. The difficulties are solved by using unitary transformations of the Schrödinger operators by approximate ground state functions and estimates in the rough path analysis.     

Large deviation principle for enhanced Gaussian processes

We study large deviation principles for Gaussian processes lifted to the free nilpotent group of step N. We apply this to a large class of Gaussian processes lifted to geometric rough paths. A large deviation principle for enhanced (fractional) Brownian motion, in Hölder- or modulus topology, appears as special case.     

Estimation of entropy and other functionals of a multivariate density

For a multivariate density f with respect to Lebesgue measure , the estimation of % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXafv3ySLgzGmvETj2BSbqefm0B1jxALjhiov2D% aebbfv3ySLgzGueE0jxyaibaiiYdd9qrFfea0dXdf9vqai-hEir8Ve% ea0de9qq-hbrpepeea0db9q8as0-LqLs-Jirpepeea0-as0Fb9pgea% 0lrP0xe9Fve9Fve9qapdbaqaaeGacaGaaiaabeqaamaabaabcaGcba% Waa8qaaeaacaWGkbGaaiikaiaadAgacaGGPaGaamOzaiaadsgacqaH% 8oqBaSqabeqaniabgUIiYdaaaa!4404!\[\int {J(f)fd\mu } \], and in particular % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXafv3ySLgzGmvETj2BSbqefm0B1jxALjhiov2D% aebbfv3ySLgzGueE0jxyaibaiiYdd9qrFfea0dXdf9vqai-hEir8Ve% ea0de9qq-hbrpepeea0db9q8as0-LqLs-Jirpepeea0-as0Fb9pgea% 0lrP0xe9Fve9Fve9qapdbaqaaeGacaGaaiaabeqaamaabaabcaGcba% Waa8qaaeaacaWGMbWaaWbaaSqabeaacaaIYaaaaOGaamizaiabeY7a% TbWcbeqab0Gaey4kIipaaaa!41E4!\[\int {f^2 d\mu } \] and % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXafv3ySLgzGmvETj2BSbqefm0B1jxALjhiov2D% aebbfv3ySLgzGueE0jxyaibaiiYdd9qrFfea0dXdf9vqai-hEir8Ve% ea0de9qq-hbrpepeea0db9q8as0-LqLs-Jirpepeea0-as0Fb9pgea% 0lrP0xe9Fve9Fve9qapdbaqaaeGacaGaaiaabeqaamaabaabcaGcba% Waa8qaaeaacaWGMbGaciiBaiaac+gacaGGNbGaamOzaiaadsgacqaH% 8oqBaSqabeqaniabgUIiYdaaaa!44AC!\[\int {f\log fd\mu } \], is studied. These two particular functionals are important in a number of contexts. Asymptotic bias and variance terms are obtained for the estimators % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXafv3ySLgzGmvETj2BSbqefm0B1jxALjhiov2D% aebbfv3ySLgzGueE0jxyaibaiiYdd9qrFfea0dXdf9vqai-hEir8Ve% ea0de9qq-hbrpepeea0db9q8as0-LqLs-Jirpepeea0-as0Fb9pgea% 0lrP0xe9Fve9Fve9qapdbaqaaeGacaGaaiaabeqaamaabaabcaGcba% WaaybyaeqaleqabaGaey4jIKnaneaacaWGjbaaaOGaeyypa0Zaa8qa% aeaacaWGkbGaaiikamaawagabeWcbeqaaiabgEIizdqdbaGaamOzaa% aakiaacMcacaWGKbGaamOramaaBaaaleaacaWGobaabeaaaeqabeqd% cqGHRiI8aaaa!4994!\[\mathop I\limits^ \wedge = \int {J(\mathop f\limits^ \wedge )dF_N } \] and % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXafv3ySLgzGmvETj2BSbqefm0B1jxALjhiov2D% aebbfv3ySLgzGueE0jxyaibaiiYdd9qrFfea0dXdf9vqai-hEir8Ve% ea0de9qq-hbrpepeea0db9q8as0-LqLs-Jirpepeea0-as0Fb9pgea% 0lrP0xe9Fve9Fve9qapdbaqaaeGacaGaaiaabeqaamaabaabcaGcba% WaaybyaeqaleqabaGaeSipIOdaneaacaWGjbaaaOGaeyypa0Zaa8qa% aeaacaWGkbGaaiikamaawagabeWcbeqaaiabgEIizdqdbaGaamOzaa% aakiaacMcadaGfGbqabSqabeaacqGHNis2a0qaaiaadAgaaaGccaWG% KbGaeqiVd0galeqabeqdcqGHRiI8aaaa!4C40!\[\mathop I\limits^ \sim = \int {J(\mathop f\limits^ \wedge )\mathop f\limits^ \wedge d\mu } \], where % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXafv3ySLgzGmvETj2BSbqefm0B1jxALjhiov2D% aebbfv3ySLgzGueE0jxyaibaiiYdd9qrFfea0dXdf9vqai-hEir8Ve% ea0de9qq-hbrpepeea0db9q8as0-LqLs-Jirpepeea0-as0Fb9pgea% 0lrP0xe9Fve9Fve9qapdbaqaaeGacaGaaiaabeqaamaabaabcaGcba% WaaybyaeqaleqabaGaey4jIKnaneaacaWGMbaaaaaa!3E9C!\[{\mathop f\limits^ \wedge }\] is a kernel density estimate of f and F _n is the empirical distribution function based on the random sample X ₁ ,..., X _n from f. For the two functionalsmentioned above, a first order bias term for Î can be made zero by appropriate choices of non-unimodal kernels. Suggestions for the choice of bandwidth are given; for % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXafv3ySLgzGmvETj2BSbqefm0B1jxALjhiov2D% aebbfv3ySLgzGueE0jxyaibaiiYdd9qrFfea0dXdf9vqai-hEir8Ve% ea0de9qq-hbrpepeea0db9q8as0-LqLs-Jirpepeea0-as0Fb9pgea% 0lrP0xe9Fve9Fve9qapdbaqaaeGacaGaaiaabeqaamaabaabcaGcba% WaaybyaeqaleqabaGaey4jIKnaneaacaWGjbaaaOGaeyypa0Zaa8qa% aeaadaGfGbqabSqabeaacqGHNis2a0qaaiaadAgaaaGccaWGKbGaam% OramaaBaaaleaacaWGobaabeaaaeqabeqdcqGHRiI8aaaa!476C!\[\mathop I\limits^ \wedge = \int {\mathop f\limits^ \wedge dF_N } \], a study of optimal bandwidth is possible.This research was supported by an NSERC Grant and a UBC Killam Research Fellowship.     

Mass shifting roles of negative kernel mass in density estimation

f(x) is a univariate density in C ⁴ with bounded support. For any n and sufficiently small kernel bandwidths, the symmetric appendage of any negative mass, –U, to any smooth unimodal symmetric kernel of order p=2 shifts expected estimator mass from regions where f(x)>0 to regions where f(x)<0. For large n, the mean automatic kernel adaptation induced by –U is analyzed in the simplest MISE reduction scenario: The symmetric appendage of –U to the uniform kernel K(x, X) over MISE-optimal bandwidths reduces MISE by shifting K(x, X) mass asymmetrically across the observation X in the direction of decreasing |f(x)|.     

Optimal convergence properties of kernel density estimators without differentiability conditions

Let X ₁, X ₂, ..., X _n be independent observations from an (unknown) absolutely continuous univariate distribution with density f and let % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXafv3ySLgzGmvETj2BSbqefm0B1jxALjhiov2D% aebbfv3ySLgzGueE0jxyaibaiiYdd9qrFfea0dXdf9vqai-hEir8Ve% ea0de9qq-hbrpepeea0db9q8as0-LqLs-Jirpepeea0-as0Fb9pgea% 0lrP0xe9Fve9Fve9qapdbaqaaeGacaGaaiaabeqaamaabaabcaGcba% GabmOzayaajaGaaiikaiaadIhacaGGPaGaeyypa0Jaaiikaiaad6ga% caWGObGaaiykamaaCaaaleqabaGaeyOeI0IaaGymaaaakmaaqadaba% Gaam4saiaacUfadaWcgaqaaiaacIcacaWG4bGaeyOeI0Iaamiwamaa% BaaaleaacaWGPbaabeaakiaacMcaaeaacaWGObGaaiyxaaaaaSqaai% aadMgacqGH9aqpcaaIXaaabaGaamOBaaqdcqGHris5aaaa!5356!\[\hat f(x) = (nh)^{ - 1} \sum\nolimits_{i = 1}^n {K[{{(x - X_i )} \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{(x - X_i )} {h]}}} \right. \kern-\nulldelimiterspace} {h]}}} \] be a kernel estimator of f(x) at the point x, \s-<x<, with h=h _n (h _n O and nh _n , as n) the bandwidth and K a kernel function of order r. Optimal rates of convergence to zero for the bias and mean square error of such estimators have been studied and established by several authors under varying conditions on K and f. These conditions, however, have invariably included the assumption of existence of the r-th order derivative for f at the point x. It is shown in this paper that these rates of convergence remain valid without any differentiability assumptions on f at x. Instead some simple regularity conditions are imposed on the density f at the point of interest. Our methods are based on certain results in the theory of semi-groups of linear operators and the notions and relations of calculus of finite differences.This research was supported in part by grants from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and the University of Alberta Central Research Fund.