标的资产价格服从跳-扩散过程的具有随机寿命的未定权益定价

本文在假设被终止或取消的风险与重大信息导致的标的资产价格跳跃的风险为非系统风险的情况下,应用无套利资本资产定价,推导出了标的的资产的价格服从跳-扩散过程具有随机寿命的未定权益满足的偏微分方程,然后应用Feynman-kac公式获得了未定权益的定价公式.     

An explicit solution to a tandem queueing model

We consider two queues in tandem, each with an exponential server, and with deterministic arrivals to the first queue. We obtain an explicit solution for the steady state distribution of the process (N₁(t), N₂(t), Y(t)), where N_j(t) is the queue length in the jth queue and Y(t) measures the time elapsed since the last arrival. Then we obtain the marginal distributions of (N₁(t), N₂(t)) and of N₂(t). We also evaluate the solution in various limiting cases, such as heavy traffic. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

On the Erlang Loss Model with Time Dependent Input

We consider the M(t)/M(t)/m/m queue, where the arrival rate λ(t) and service rate μ(t) are arbitrary (smooth) functions of time. Letting p_n(t) be the probability that n servers are occupied at time t (0≤ n≤ m, t > 0), we study this distribution asymptotically, for m→∞ with a comparably large arrival rate λ(t) = O(m) (with μ(t) = O(1)). We use singular perturbation techniques to solve the forward equation for p_n(t) asymptotically. Particular attention is paid to computing the mean number of occupied servers and the blocking probability p_m(t). The analysis involves several different space-time ranges, as well as different initial conditions (we assume that at t = 0 exactly n₀ servers are occupied, 0≤ n₀≤ m). Numerical studies back up the asymptotic analysis. AMS subject classification: 60K25,34E10 Supported in part by NSF grants DMS-99-71656 and DMS-02-02815     

Vessel Arrival Process and Queueing in Marine Ports Handling Bulk Materials

We study the vessel arrival process in bulk ports handling either cargo containers or minerals. Then we introduce the SHIP/G/1 queue to be able to study the queueing behavior at the port. We present approximations for the asymptotic probabilities of delay and the number of vessels at the port. Numerical examples show the accuracy of the approximations. In appendices, we provide details of the analysis of the number of vessels at the port and the correlation properties of the vessel arrival process.     

Asymptotic Properties of Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimators for ARMA Models with Time-Dependent Coefficients

For about thirty years, time series models with time-dependent coefficients have sometimes been considered as an alternative to models with constant coefficients or non-linear models. Analysis based on models with time-dependent models has long suffered from the absence of an asymptotic theory except in very special cases. The purpose of this paper is to provide such a theory without using a locally stationary spectral representation and time rescaling. We consider autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) models with time-dependent coefficients and a heteroscedastic innovation process. The coefficients and the innovation variance are deterministic functions of time which depend on a finite number of parameters. These parameters are estimated by maximising the Gaussian likelihood function. Deriving conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality and obtaining the asymptotic covariance matrix are done using some assumptions on the functions of time in order to attenuate non-stationarity, mild assumptions for the distribution of the innovations, and also a kind of mixing condition. Theorems from the theory of martingales and mixtingales are used. Some simulation results are given and both theoretical and practical examples are treated. Received 2004; Final version 23 December 2004     

Computer modeling for analysis of complex reaction kinetics

A new method for computer prediction of the catalytic activity dependence on service life and technological conditions for bifunctional Pt catalysts has been proposed. The proposed method is based on physical and chemical laws of multicomponent hydrocarbon transformations on polymetallic catalysts and takes into account deactivation of acidic (Al) and metallic (Pt) sites. It allows to calculate the product composition and catalytic activity level for real industrial units as a function of their technological parameters and raw material characteristics.     

Stochastic sensitivity analysis of coupled acoustic-structural systems under non-stationary random excitations

This paper presents a new sensitivity analysis method for coupled acoustic–structural systems subjected to non-stationary random excitations. The integral of the response power spectrum density (PSD) of the coupled system is taken as the objective function. The thickness of each structural element is used as a design variable. A time-domain algorithm integrating the pseudo excitation method (PEM), direct differentiation method (DDM) and high precision direct (HPD) integration method is proposed for the sensitivity analysis of the objective function with respect to design variables. Firstly, the PEM is adopted to transform the sensitivity analysis under non-stationary random excitations into the sensitivity analysis under pseudo transient excitations. Then, the sensitivity analysis equation of the coupled system under pseudo transient excitations is derived based on the DDM. Moreover, the HPD integration method is used to efficiently solve the sensitivity analysis equation under pseudo transient excitations in a reduced-order modal space. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the validity of the proposed method.     

保单个数为Poisson分布的总理赔额分布函数的界值研究

根据单个保单理赔额分布函数F(z)的一些特殊性质,研究了开放个别风险模型在保单个数N为Poisson分布下,总理赔额分布函数F_S(x)对任意x(x≥0)的界值问题,得到一些实用的、便于数值计算的界值结果,具有重要的应用价值．     

Optimal strategy policy in batch arrival queue with server breakdowns and multiple vacations

This paper considers a like-queue production system in which server vacations and breakdowns are possible. The decision-maker can turn a single server on at any arrival epoch or off at any service completion. We model the system by an M^[x]/M/1 queueing system with N policy. The server can be turned off and takes a vacation with exponential random length whenever the system is empty. If the number of units waiting in the system at any vacation completion is less than N, the server will take another vacation. If the server returns from a vacation and finds at least N units in the system, he immediately starts to serve the waiting units. It is assumed that the server breaks down according to a Poisson process and the repair time has an exponential distribution. We derive the distribution of the system size through the probability generating function. We further study the steady-state behavior of the system size distribution at random (stationary) point of time as well as the queue size distribution at departure point of time. Other system characteristics are obtained by means of the grand process and the renewal process. Finally, the expected cost per unit time is considered to determine the optimal operating policy at a minimum cost. The sensitivity analysis is also presented through numerical experiments.