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排序方式: 共有138条查询结果,搜索用时 62 毫秒
1.
LYNDA D. RODWELL EDWARD B. BARBIER CALLUM M. ROBERTS TIM R. McCLANAHAN 《Natural Resource Modeling》2002,15(4):453-486
ABSTRACT. The excessive and unsustainable exploitation of our marine resources has led to the promotion of marine reserves as a fisheries management tool. Marine reserves, areas in which fishing is restricted or prohibited, can offer opportunities for the recovery of exploited stock and fishery enhancement. In this paper we examine the contribution of fully protected tropical marine reserves to fishery enhancement by modeling marine reserve‐fishery linkages. The consequences of reserve establishment on the long‐run equilibrium fish biomass and fishery catch levels are evaluated. In contrast to earlier models this study highlights the roles of both adult (and juvenile) fish migration and larval dispersal between the reserve and fishing grounds by employing a spawner‐recruit model. Uniform larval dispersal, uniform larval retention and complete larval retention combined with zero, moderate and high fish migration scenarios are analyzed in turn. The numerical simulations are based on Mombasa Marine National Park, Kenya, a fully protected coral reef marine reserve comprising approximately 30% of former fishing grounds. Simulation results suggest that the establishment of a fully protected marine reserve will always lead to an increase in total fish biomass. If the fishery is moderately to heavily exploited, total fishery catch will be greater with the reserve in all scenarios of fish and larval movement. If the fishery faces low levels of exploitation, catches can be optimized without a reserve but with controlled fishing effort. With high fish migration from the reserve, catches are optimized with the reserve. The optimal area of the marine reserve depends on the exploitation rate in the neighboring fishing grounds. For example, if exploitation is maintained at 40%, the ‘optimal’ reserve size would be 10%. If the rate increases to 50%, then the reserve needs to be 30% of the management area in order to maximize catches. However, even in lower exploitation fisheries (below 40%), a small reserve (up to 20%) provides significantly higher gains in fish biomass than losses in catch. Marine reserves are a valuable fisheries management tool. To achieve maximum fishery benefits they should be complemented by fishing effort controls. 相似文献
2.
We present a general risk model where the aggregate claims, as well as the premium function, evolve by jumps. This is achieved by incorporating a Lévy process into the model. This seeks to account for the discrete nature of claims and asset prices. We give several explicit examples of Lévy processes that can be used to drive a risk model. This allows us to incorporate aggregate claims and premium fluctuations in the same process. We discuss important features of such processes and their relevance to risk modeling. We also extend classical results on ruin probabilities to this model. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
3.
外汇储备规模与多元变量弹性系数的实证研究 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
中国外汇储备近几年的迅速增长引发了关于中国外汇储备规模是否适度的广泛讨论。本文从需求的角度,运用计量经济学的多元线性回归的方法,建立中国外汇储备与平均进口倾向、进口和国际收支三变量的双对数模型,通过计算并通过相关检验得到外汇储备与相关变量的弹性系数。为预测和制定相关政策提供依据。 相似文献
4.
Eric D BalighianJoel F Liebman 《Journal of fluorine chemistry》2002,116(1):35-39
It is well established that atomic fluorine has a miserly high ionization energy and avariciously high electron affinity. Yet, as was shown some 30 years ago, the latter value is anomalously low-linear extrapolation shows the value to be some 110 kJ/mol less than expected by comparison to the heavier halogens. Related literature investigation extended this anomaly to nitrogen and oxygen and their (valence) isoelectronic congeners. We extend it to related cationic species and thereby the noble gases and alkali metals, and the aforementioned species are better understood. We thus ask if the ionization energy/electron affinity anomaly of fluorine remains an anomaly. 相似文献
5.
过渡金属络合物中过渡金属与配体间所形成的化学键的成键本质,可以在理论化学基础上,采用定量的方法进行分析。本文重点以铁羰基络合物为例,对常用的分析方法,如自然键轨道方法(NBO)、电荷分解分析(CDA)、分子中的原子(AIM)拓扑分析方法以及ETS和EDA能量分解方法等,在应用中的优缺点进行了分析和评述。借助于这些方法提供的电荷、能量和电子密度等配分项可以深刻认识和理解过渡金属-配体间形成的化学键的成键本质。 相似文献
6.
金属配合物在天然药物研究及分析中的应用进展 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
评述了天然药物中有效成分的金属配合物在新药开发,天然药物中有效成分定量分析的应用进展,引用文献68篇。 相似文献
7.
Geometry optimization was performed for the ground states of FeCO, Fe(CO)2, and Fe(CO)3 at various levels of ab initio calculations, and the bond lengths and dissociation energies obtained were in reasonable agreement
with experimental results. The nature of bonding was studied for these molecules using a complete-active-space self-consistent-field
method. From the Mulliken population analysis, it was found that the traditional donation and back donation mechanism is valid
for these molecules, including Fe(CO)3, which has a pyramidal structure.
Received: 27 September 1999 / Accepted: 13 January 2000 / Published online: 19 April 2000 相似文献
8.
基于全球稀土资源的供需形势和中国稀土资源减少的趋势,运用系统动力学的模型来预测未来17年我国稀土资源储备量。选取了2000~2013的生产和消费数据,通过定量模拟计算中国稀土供需差波动系数,设计了稀土资源供需差波动范围分别为0%,20%的两个方案,模拟计算了两个方案的年储备量、累计储备量和储备量绝对值。方案一范围是(-0%,+0%),仿真预测出稀土未来17年累积储备量为720551 t,即战略储备规模达到720551 t,该方案下不论供需差发生如何波动,国家都会进行储备或释放调节;方案二范围是(-20%,+20%),预测出未来17年战略储备规模为461331 t,国家只需在这个范围外进行收储释放调节,从而调节市场供求,降低价格波动幅度。本文从不同供需差的波动系数来模拟计算储备量,目的是为国家相关部门在进行稀土储备决策时提供参考,可以根据我国经济景气状况和供需形势,以及稀土产业发展状况,进行不同规模的稀土储备。 相似文献
9.
This paper investigates a discrete‐time risk model that involves exchangeable dependent loss generating claim occurrences and compound binomially distributed aggregate loss amounts. First, a general framework is presented to derive the distribution of a surplus sequence using the model. This framework is then applied to obtain the distribution of any function of a surplus sequence in a finite‐time interval. Specifically, the distribution of the maximum surplus is obtained under nonruin conditions. Based on this distribution, the computation of the minimum surplus distribution is given. Asset and risk management–oriented implications are discussed for the obtained distributions based on numerical evaluations. In addition, comparisons are made involving the corresponding results of the classical discrete‐time compound binomial risk model, for which claim occurrences are independent and identically distributed. 相似文献
10.
《Operations Research Letters》2021,49(3):291-299
We develop a two-stage stochastic program for energy and reserve dispatch of a joint power and gas system with a high penetration of renewables. Data-driven distributionally robust chance constraints ensure that there is no load shedding and renewable spillage with high probability. We solve this problem efficiently using conditional value-at-risk approximations and linear decision rules. Out-of-sample experiments show that this model dominates the corresponding stochastic program without chance constraints that models the effects of load shedding and renewable spillage explicitly. 相似文献