Hedging mortality/longevity risks of insurance portfolios for life insurer/annuity provider and financial intermediary

In this paper, we propose two risk hedge schemes in which a life insurer (an annuity provider) can transfer mortality (longevity) risk of a portfolio of life (annuity) exposures to a financial intermediary by paying the hedging premium of a mortality-linked security. The optimal units of the mortality-linked security which maximize hedge effectiveness for a life insurer (an annuity provider) can be derived as closed-form formulas under the risk hedge schemes. Numerical illustrations show that the risk hedge schemes can significantly hedge the downside risk of loss due to mortality (longevity) risk for the life insurer (annuity provider) under some stochastic mortality models. Besides, finding an optimal weight of a portfolio of life and annuity business, the financial intermediary can reduce the sensitivity to mortality rates but the model risk; a security loading may be imposed on the hedge premium for a higher probability of gain to compensate the financial intermediary for the inevitable model risk.     

The young adult patient

The purpose of this paper is to 1) describe the unique issues of voice patients, ages 21–55; 2) outline the knowledge and clinical skills that speech language pathologists should possess to deal with those issues; and 3) provide suggestions for promoting vocal longevity.     

Redistribution of longevity risk: The effect of heterogeneous mortality beliefs

Existing literature regarding the natural hedge potential that arises from combining different longevity-linked liabilities typically does not address the question how changes in the liability mix can be obtained. We consider firms who aim to exploit the benefits of natural hedge potential by redistributing their risks, and characterize the risk redistributions that will arise when the parties bargain for a redistribution of risk that weakly benefits them all. We analyze the effects of heterogeneity in the beliefs regarding the probability distribution of future mortality rates on the properties of these risk redistributions, and provide a numerical illustration for a case where an insurer with a portfolio of term assurance contracts and a pension fund with a portfolio of life annuities redistribute their risks.     

Optimal life cycle portfolio choice with variable annuities offering liquidity and investment downside protection

This paper assesses optimal life cycle consumption and portfolio allocations when households have access to Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit (GMWB) variable annuities over their adult lifetimes. Our contribution is to evaluate demand for these products which provide access to equity investments with money-back guarantees, longevity risk hedging, and partially-refundable premiums, in a realistic world with uncertain labor and capital market income as well as mortality risk. Others have predicted that consumers will only purchase such annuities late in life, but we show that they will optimally purchase GMWBs prior to retirement, consistent with their recent rapid uptick in sales. Additionally, many individuals optimally adjust their portfolios and consumption streams along the way by taking cash withdrawals from the products. These products can substantially enhance consumption, by up to 10% for those who experience highly unfavorable experiences in the stock market.     

Entropy, longevity and the cost of annuities

This paper presents an extension of the application of the concept of entropy to annuity costs. Keyfitz (1985) introduced the concept of entropy, and analysed this in the context of continuous changes in life expectancy. He showed that a higher level of entropy indicates that the life expectancy has a greater propensity to respond to a change in the force of mortality than a lower level of entropy. In other words, a high level of entropy means that further reductions in mortality rates would have an impact on measures like life expectancy. In this paper, we apply this to the cost of annuities and show how it allows the sensitivity of the cost of a life annuity contract to changes in longevity to be summarized in a single figure index.     

The heat wave model for constructing two-dimensional mortality improvement scales with measures of uncertainty

Recently, the actuarial professions in various countries have adopted an innovative two-dimensional approach to projecting future mortality. In contrast to the conventional approach, the two-dimensional approach permits mortality improvement rates to vary with not only age but also time. Despite being an important breakthrough, the currently used two-dimensional mortality improvement scales are subject to several limitations, most notably a heavy reliance on subjective judgments and a lack of measures of uncertainty. In view of these limitations, in this paper we introduce a new model known as the heat wave model, in which short- and long-term mortality improvements are treated respectively as ‘heat waves’ that taper off over time and ‘background improvements’ that always exist. Using the heat wave model, one can derive two-dimensional mortality improvement scales that entail minimal subjective judgment and include measures of the uncertainty.     

Securitizing and tranching longevity exposures

We consider the problem of optimally designing longevity risk transfers under asymmetric information. We focus on holders of longevity exposures that have superior knowledge of the underlying demographic risks, but are willing to take them off their balance sheets because of capital requirements. In equilibrium, they transfer longevity risk to uninformed agents at a cost, where the cost is represented by retention of part of the exposure and/or by a risk premium. We use a signalling model to quantify the effects of asymmetric information and emphasize how they compound with parameter uncertainty. We show how the cost of private information can be minimized by suitably tranching securitized cashflows, or, equivalently, by securitizing the exposure in exchange for an option on mortality rates. We also investigate the benefits of pooling several longevity exposures and the impact on tranching levels.     

Modeling longevity risks using a principal component approach: A comparison with existing stochastic mortality models

This research proposes a mortality model with an age shift to project future mortality using principal component analysis (PCA). Comparisons of the proposed PCA model with the well-known models—the Lee-Carter model, the age-period-cohort model (Renshaw and Haberman, 2006), and the Cairns, Blake, and Dowd model—employ empirical studies of mortality data from six countries, two each from Asia, Europe, and North America. The mortality data come from the human mortality database and span the period 1970-2005. The proposed PCA model produces smaller prediction errors for almost all illustrated countries in its mean absolute percentage error. To demonstrate longevity risk in annuity pricing, we use the proposed PCA model to project future mortality rates and analyze the underestimated ratio of annuity price for whole life annuity and deferred whole life annuity product respectively. The effect of model risk on annuity pricing is also investigated by comparing the results from the proposed PCA model with those from the LC model. The findings can benefit actuaries in their efforts to deal with longevity risk in pricing and valuation.     

Longevity risk and the Grim Reaper’s toxic tail: The survivor fan charts

This paper uses survivor fan charts to illustrate the prospective density functions of future male survival rates. The fan charts are based on a version of the Cairns–Blake–Dowd model of male mortality that provides a good fit to recent mortality data for England and Wales. They indicate that although none of us can escape the Grim Reaper, survivorship uncertainty is greatest for males aged a little over 90, confirming that there exists a ‘toxic tail’ for those institutions, such as annuity and pension providers, which are obliged to make payments to them for as long as they live. We also find that taking account of uncertainty in the parameters of the underlying mortality model leads to major increases in estimates of the widths of the fan charts.     

A common age effect model for the mortality of multiple populations

We introduce a model for the mortality rates of multiple populations. To build the proposed model we investigate to what extent a common age effect can be found among the mortality experiences of several countries and use a common principal component analysis to estimate a common age effect in an age–period model for multiple populations. The fit of the proposed model is then compared to age–period models fitted to each country individually, and to the fit of the model proposed by Li and Lee (2005).Although we do not consider stochastic mortality projections in this paper, we argue that the proposed common age effect model can be extended to a stochastic mortality model for multiple populations, which allows to generate mortality scenarios simultaneously for all considered populations. This is particularly relevant when mortality derivatives are used to hedge the longevity risk in an annuity portfolio as this often means that the underlying population for the derivatives is not the same as the population in the annuity portfolio.