模糊数学,随机数学与精确数学的逻辑比较

本文揭示模糊数学，随机数学与精确数学有相似的形式公理化描述，它们的区别只在语义上。     

带息力更新风险模型的一个极值分布

本文讨论了带息力的更新风险模型,得到了破产前最大盈余分布的递推公式,且在此基础上还给出了它满足的积分方程.     

The matrix rate of return

In this paper we give definitions of matrix rates of return which do not depend on the choice of basis describing baskets. We give their economic interpretation. The matrix rate of return describes baskets of arbitrary type and extends portfolio analysis to the complex variable domain. This allows us for simultaneous analysis of evolution of baskets parameterized by complex variables in both continuous and discrete time models.     

The expectation hypothesis of interest rates and network theory: The case of Brazil

This paper investigates the topological properties of the Brazilian term structure of interest rates network. We build the minimum spanning tree (MST), which is based on the concept of ultrametricity, using the correlation matrix for interest rates of different maturities. We show that the short-term interest rate is the most important within the interest rates network, which is in line with the Expectation Hypothesis of interest rates. Furthermore, we find that the Brazilian interest rates network forms clusters by maturity.     

Simple ingredients leading to very efficient heuristics for the maximum clique problem

Starting from an algorithm recently proposed by Pullan and Hoos, we formulate and analyze iterated local search algorithms for the maximum clique problem. The basic components of such algorithms are a fast neighbourhood search (not based on node evaluation but on completely random selection) and simple, yet very effective, diversification techniques and restart rules. A detailed computational study is performed in order to identify strengths and weaknesses of the proposed algorithms and the role of the different components on several classes of instances. The tested algorithms are very fast and reliable: most of the DIMACS benchmark instances are solved within very short CPU times. For one of the hardest tests, a new putative optimum was discovered by one of our algorithms. Very good performances were also shown on recently proposed and more difficult instances. It is important to remark that the heuristics tested in this paper are basically parameter free (the appropriate value for the unique parameter is easily identified and was, in fact, the same value for all problem instances used in this paper).     

Comparison of the Hurst and DEA exponents between the catalogue and its clusters: The California case

In this work, we analyse the long-run correlations of the seismic catalogue and of its clusters, by means of the Diffusion Entropy Analysis (DEA) and the value of the Hurst exponent. First we calculate the values for the whole catalogue, for the rate and the inter-event times and distance distribution over time, and subsequently we calculate the values for the declustered catalogue and the main clusters. We find a wide variety of behaviours, which depart from the Poisson statistics.     

带利息力和干扰的批量索赔一般到达风险模型

本文在经典风险模型的基础上,将索赔到达过程推广为更新过程,索赔可以批量到达,且带有常数利息力和Brown运动干扰项,得到一个新的风险模型,运用Markov骨架过程的方法,得出盈余过程的瞬时分布和生存概率.     

具有时滞的利率-流通量方程的建立及其应用

本文对金融网络建立了带有时滞的利率-流通量方程，应用时滞微分方程理论，我们得到金融网络中，各节点利率最终将稳定于其基本利率的充分必要条件；给出了各节点利率均振动的充分必要条件以及存在周期解的充分必要条件。     

Interest rate futures: estimation of volatility parameters in an arbitrage-free framework

Hedging interest rate exposures using interest rate futures contracts requires some knowledge of the volatility function of the interest rates. Use of historical data as well as interest rate options like caps and swaptions to estimate this volatility function have been proposed in the literature. In this paper the interest rate futures price is modelled within an arbitrage-free framework for a volatility function which includes a stochastic variable, the instantaneous spot interest rate. The resulting system is expressed in a state space form which is solved using an extended Kalman filter. The residual diagnostics indicate suitability of the model and the bootstrap resampling technique is used to obtain small sample properties of the parameters of the volatility function.     

Bounded rational expectations and the stability of interest rate policy

The New Keynesian model has recently been subject to two serious criticisms: the model cannot produce plausible inflation and output dynamics following a monetary shock, and the stability of its dynamics suffers from indeterminacy. The procedures that have been proposed to eliminate these two shortcomings fall into two categories: the introduction of some sort of backward price indexation into the standard model and/or other forms of stickiness (like sticky information); and the adoption of some form of policy rule that completely offsets the effects of forward looking dynamics in the optimization process. In this paper we do not eradicate forward looking behavior from the dynamics of the New Keynesian model, neither do we impose some form of backward price indexation. We assume that private economic agents have forward looking behavior and that they do try to optimize with all available information; the only novelty is that they are allowed to make small mistakes near the rational expectations equilibrium, in a fully deterministic setup. These “near rational” or “bounded rational” expectations show that the dynamics of the model with active interest rate rules is much richer than the simple problem of local indeterminacy as is usually found in the literature.