A MODEL OF TROPICAL MARINE RESERVE‐FISHERY LINKAGES

ABSTRACT. The excessive and unsustainable exploitation of our marine resources has led to the promotion of marine reserves as a fisheries management tool. Marine reserves, areas in which fishing is restricted or prohibited, can offer opportunities for the recovery of exploited stock and fishery enhancement. In this paper we examine the contribution of fully protected tropical marine reserves to fishery enhancement by modeling marine reserve‐fishery linkages. The consequences of reserve establishment on the long‐run equilibrium fish biomass and fishery catch levels are evaluated. In contrast to earlier models this study highlights the roles of both adult (and juvenile) fish migration and larval dispersal between the reserve and fishing grounds by employing a spawner‐recruit model. Uniform larval dispersal, uniform larval retention and complete larval retention combined with zero, moderate and high fish migration scenarios are analyzed in turn. The numerical simulations are based on Mombasa Marine National Park, Kenya, a fully protected coral reef marine reserve comprising approximately 30% of former fishing grounds. Simulation results suggest that the establishment of a fully protected marine reserve will always lead to an increase in total fish biomass. If the fishery is moderately to heavily exploited, total fishery catch will be greater with the reserve in all scenarios of fish and larval movement. If the fishery faces low levels of exploitation, catches can be optimized without a reserve but with controlled fishing effort. With high fish migration from the reserve, catches are optimized with the reserve. The optimal area of the marine reserve depends on the exploitation rate in the neighboring fishing grounds. For example, if exploitation is maintained at 40%, the ‘optimal’ reserve size would be 10%. If the rate increases to 50%, then the reserve needs to be 30% of the management area in order to maximize catches. However, even in lower exploitation fisheries (below 40%), a small reserve (up to 20%) provides significantly higher gains in fish biomass than losses in catch. Marine reserves are a valuable fisheries management tool. To achieve maximum fishery benefits they should be complemented by fishing effort controls.     

Decreasing the Displacements of a Composite Saddle-Shaped Cable Roof

The structural possibilities of decreasing the compliance of a composite saddle-shaped cable roof having a compliant support contour are investigated. The use of a supporting contour consisting of cables joined together with tie-bars is considered as a structural method enabling one to decrease the compliance of the roof. Each cable of the support has its own initial flexure. The method is most efficient from the viewpoint of material consumption per unit of covered area relative to the increasing rigidity and prestress level of the cable net.The efficiency of the method was evaluated by a numerical experiment, which was carried out for a composite saddle-shaped cable roof 50 × 50 m in the plan. The roof was formed by two orthogonal cable groups joined with a compliant supporting contour. A hybrid composite cable based on a carbon-fiber-reinforced plastic, a glass-fiber-reinforced plastic, and steel was considered as a material for the cable net in combination with steel. The material consumption and the maximum vertical displacement of the cable net in relation to the initial geometrical characteristics of the supporting contour were obtained. A possibility of decreasing the maximum vertical displacements of the roof by 8% was established.     

Estimation in the continuous time mover‐stayer model with an application to bond ratings migration

The usual tool for modelling bond ratings migration is a discrete, time‐homogeneous Markov chain. Such model assumes that all bonds are homogeneous with respect to their movement behaviour among rating categories and that the movement behaviour does not change over time. However, among recognized sources of heterogeneity in ratings migration is age of a bond (time elapsed since issuance). It has been observed that young bonds have a lower propensity to change ratings, and thus to default, than more seasoned bonds. The aim of this paper is to introduce a continuous, time‐non‐homogeneous model for bond ratings migration, which also incorporates a simple form of population heterogeneity. The specific form of heterogeneity postulated by the proposed model appears to be suitable for modelling the effect of age of a bond on its propensity to change ratings. This model, called a mover–stayer model, is an extension of a Markov chain. This paper derives the maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters of a continuous time mover–stayer model based on a sample of independent continuously monitored histories of the process, and develops the likelihood ratio statistic for discriminating between the Markov chain and the mover–stayer model. The methods are illustrated using a sample of rating histories of young corporate issuers. For these issuers the default probabilities predicted by the Markov chain and mover–stayer models are different. In particular for 1–4 years old bonds the mover–stayer model estimates substantially lower default probabilities from rating C than a Markov chain. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Desorption behavior of a surfactant in a linear low‐density polyethylene blend at elevated temperatures

The desorption behavior of a surfactant in a linear low‐density polyethylene (LLDPE) blend at elevated temperatures of 50, 70, and 80 °C was studied with Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. The composition of the LLDPE blend was 70:30 LLDPE/low‐density polyethylene. Three different specimens (II, III, and IV) were prepared with various compositions of a small molecular penetrant, sorbitan palmitate (SPAN‐40), and a migration controller, poly(ethylene acrylic acid) (EAA), in the LLDPE blend. The calculated diffusion coefficient (D) of SPAN‐40 in specimens II, III, and IV, between 50 and 80 °C, varied from 1.74 × 10^?11 to 6.79 × 10^?11 cm²/s, from 1.10 × 10^?11 to 5.75 × 10^?11 cm²/s, and from 0.58 × 10^?11 to 4.75 × 10^?11 cm²/s, respectively. In addition, the calculated activation energies (E_D) of specimens II, III, and IV, from the plotting of ln D versus 1/T between 50 and 80 °C, were 42.9, 52.7, and 65.6 kJ/mol, respectively. These values were different from those obtained between 25 and 50 °C and were believed to have been influenced by the interference of Tinuvin (a UV stabilizer) at elevated temperatures higher than 50 °C. Although the desorption rate of SPAN‐40 increased with the temperature and decreased with the EAA content, the observed spectral behavior did not depend on the temperature and time. For all specimens stored over 50 °C, the peak at 1739 cm^?1 decreased in a few days and subsequently increased with a peak shift toward 1730 cm^?1. This arose from the carbonyl stretching vibration of Tinuvin, possibly because of oxidation or degradation at elevated temperatures. In addition, the incorporation of EAA into the LLDPE blend suppressed the desorption rate of SPAN‐40 and retarded the appearance of the 1730 cm^?1 peak. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part B: Polym Phys 42: 1114–1126, 2004     

Effects of poly[styrene‐b‐(ethylene‐co‐butylene)‐b‐styrene] on the charge distributions of low‐density polyethylene/polystyrene blends

The effect of the triblock copolymer poly[styrene‐b‐(ethylene‐co‐butylene)‐b‐styrene] (SEBS) on the formation of the space charge of immiscible low‐density polyethylene (LDPE)/polystyrene (PS) blends was investigated. Blends of 70/30 (wt %) LDPE/PS were prepared through melt blending in an internal mixer at a blend temperature of 220 °C. The amount of charge that accumulated in the 70% LDPE/30% PS blends decreased when the SEBS content increased up to 10 wt %. For compatibilized and uncompatibilized blends, no significant change in the degree of crystallinity of LDPE in the blends was observed, and so the effect of crystallization on the space charge distribution could be excluded. Morphological observations showed that the addition of SEBS resulted in a domain size reduction of the dispersed PS phase and better interfacial adhesion between the LDPE and PS phases. The location of SEBS at a domain interface enabled charges to migrate from one phase to the other via the domain interface and, therefore, resulted in a significant decrease in the amount of space charge for the LDPE/PS blends with SEBS. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part B: Polym Phys 42: 2813–2820, 2004     

SASEGASA: A New Generic Parallel Evolutionary Algorithm for Achieving Highest Quality Results

This paper presents a new generic Evolutionary Algorithm (EA) for retarding the unwanted effects of premature convergence. This is accomplished by a combination of interacting generic methods. These generalizations of a Genetic Algorithm (GA) are inspired by population genetics and take advantage of the interactions between genetic drift and migration. In this regard a new selection scheme is introduced, which is designed to directedly control genetic drift within the population by advantageous self-adaptive selection pressure steering. Additionally this new selection model enables a quite intuitive heuristics to detect premature convergence. Based upon this newly postulated basic principle the new selection mechanism is combined with the already proposed Segregative Genetic Algorithm (SEGA), an advanced Genetic Algorithm (GA) that introduces parallelism mainly to improve global solution quality. As a whole, a new generic evolutionary algorithm (SASEGASA) is introduced. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated on a set of characteristic benchmark problems. Computational results show that the new method is capable of producing highest quality solutions without any problem-specific additions.     

A finite element-spherical harmonics radiation transport model for photon migration in turbid media

In this paper, we solve the steady-state form of the Boltzmann transport equation in homogeneous and heterogeneous tissue-like media with a finite element-spherical harmonics (FE-P_N) radiation transport method. We compare FE-transport and diffusion solutions in terms of the ratio of absorption to reduced scattering coefficient, (μ_a/μ_s′) and the anisotropy factor g. Two different scattering phase function formulas are employed to model anisotropic scattering in the slab media with high g-value. Influence of void-like heterogeneities, and of their boundaries with the surrounding medium on the transport of photons are also examined.     

小长径比垂直管气液两相流动特性分析

实验观察了小长径比垂直上流管内流型及特点,并对管入口处的压力波动特性和系统的压差波动特性进行了试验研究.结果表明:小长径比(L/D)垂直管内流型表现为泡状流、塞状流、乳沫状流、环状流和液束环状流;分别增加管线中的气量、液量,或者同时增加气液流量,均会造成垂直管入口处压力波动的均值和最大压力的增加;压力信号的概率密度(PDF)大部分呈双峰分布,也存在单峰和多峰分布;差压信号的概率密度符合正态分布,其功率谱密度同压力信号相比具有频率波动范围宽、幅值小的特点.     

An unusual 1,2-N→C acyl migration in urea derivatives of α-aminoorganolithiums

Transmetalation of urea derivatives of α-aminoorganostannanes with alkyllithiums provides α-aminoorganolithiums which undergo rapid N to C acyl migration to afford α-aminocarboxamides. The stereochemical course of the transmetalation/migration process depends on the substituents on the urea and varies from complete retention of configuration to complete racemization.