Probabilism,entropies and strictly proper scoring rules

Accuracy arguments are the en vogue route in epistemic justifications of probabilism and further norms governing rational belief. These arguments often depend on the fact that the employed inaccuracy measure is strictly proper. I argue controversially that it is ill-advised to assume that the employed inaccuracy measures are strictly proper and that strictly proper statistical scoring rules are a more natural class of measures of inaccuracy. Building on work in belief elicitation I show how strictly proper statistical scoring rules can be used to give an epistemic justification of probabilism.An agent's evidence does not play any role in these justifications of probabilism. Principles demanding the maximisation of a generalised entropy depend on the agent's evidence. In the second part of the paper I show how to simultaneously justify probabilism and such a principle. I also investigate scoring rules which have traditionally been linked with entropies.     

GIRSANOV'S THEOREM ON ABSTRACT WIENER SPACES

ＧＩＲＳＡＮＯＶ’ＳＴＨＥＯＲＥＭＯＮＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＷＩＥＮＥＲＳＰＡＣＥＳＺＨＡＮＧＹＩＮＮＡＮＡｂｓｔｒａｃｔＬｅｔ（Ｅ，Ｈ，μ）ｂｅａｎａｂｓｔｒａｃｔＷｉｅｎｅｒｓｐａｃｅｉｎｔｈｅｓｅｎｓｅｏｆＬ．Ｇｒｏｓ．Ｉｔｉｓｐｒｏｖｅｄｔｈ...     

Some new classes of stochastic order relations among arithmetic random variables, with applications in actuarial sciences

Recently, Fishbum and Lavalle (1995) and Lefèvre and Utev (1996) have considered some stochastic order relations specific for arithmetic random variables. The present work is concerned with these orderings, together with two other classes of stochastic order relations closely related. First, attention is paid to characterizations and various properties of all these orderings. Then, sufficient conditions of crossing-type for the two new classes of orderings are derived and extrema among discrete random variables are deduced. This is applied in actuarial sciences to obtain new bounds for the classical single life premiums as well as for the probability of ruin in the compound binomial risk model.     

Duffing方程的唯三周期解问题

考虑Duffing方程x+g(x,t)=h(t),在g(x,t)满足简单的凸凹性条件。以及g＇(x,t)跨越第一共振点时,本文指出,当强迫振动项h(t)充分小时,所讨论的Duffing方程的2π周期解恰有三个.     

Boundary value problems for first order impulsive delay differential equations with a parameter

In this paper, by means of the method of upper and lower solutions and monotone iterative technique, the existence of maximal and minimal solutions of the boundary value problems for first order impulsive delay differential equations is established.     

Maximum Principles for Infinite Dimensional Diffusion Equations

In this paper we prove the validity of the Maximum Principle for some class of elliptic and parabolic equations of diffusion type in infinite dimension. The main tools are Asplund’s theorem and Preiss’ theorem on differentiability of Lipschitz functions in Banach space.      

Bellman最优性原理——论动态规划(Ⅰ)

对于Bellman最优性原理,本文举出实例表明:(1)策略不一定有(合理的)子策略;(2)子策略不一定存在最优子策略;(3)最优策略不一定有最优子策略;(4)用最短路与反证法来论述最优性原理的正确性,不能肯定成立;(5)Bellman最优性原理与其递推公式并不等价。 讨论四类最优策略之后,给出最优性原理与递推公式等价的一个充分性定理。     

关于变系数线性方程的稳定性和不稳定性

本文研究变系数线性方程零解稳定性。给出了不稳定的充要条件，同时给出了一类系统渐近稳定的充要条件，还给出了判别稳定性的较为简易的充分条件。     

拓扑线性空间中的Drop定理和Phelps引理以及Ekeland变分原理

将Phelps引理, Ekeland变分原理, Pareto有效性定理推广到拓扑线性空间,同时证明了这三个定理与郑喜印证明的拓扑线性空间中的Drop定理彼此等价．