第一类永动机幻梦的破灭

介绍了13~18世纪物理学史和科技史上曾名噪一时的第一类永动机的设计方案的破灭.第一类永动机幻梦破灭的历史引起了人们的反思与启示,有力地促进了19世纪中叶能量转化和守恒定律的确立.     

Perpetual cutoff method and CDE′(K,N) condition on graphs

By using the perpetual cutoff method, we prove two discrete versions of gradient estimates for bounded Laplacian on locally finite graphs with exception sets under the condition of CD{E}^{\prime }(K,N). This generalizes a main result of F. Münch who considers the case of CD(K, \infty) curvature. Hence, we answer a question raised by Münch. For that purpose, we characterize some basic properties of radical form of the perpetual cutoff semigroup and give a weak commutation relation between bounded Laplacian \text{Δ} and perpetual cutoff semigroup P_t^W in our setting.     

一氧化碳中毒的数学模型

本文对一氧化碳气体中毒问题的生理学基础进行分析 ,将其抽象为理想状态下的一个微分方程模型 ,得出了一个比较符合实际情况的结果 .此模型处理同类问题有一般意义     

Callable risky perpetual debt with protection period

Issuances in the USD 260 Bn global market of perpetual risky debt are often motivated by capital requirements for financial institutions. We analyze callable risky perpetual debt emphasizing an initial protection (‘grace’) period before the debt may be called. The total market value of debt including the call option is expressed as a portfolio of perpetual debt and barrier options with a time dependent barrier. We also analyze how an issuer’s optimal bankruptcy decision is affected by the existence of the call option by using closed-form approximations. The model quantifies the increased coupon and the decreased initial bankruptcy level caused by the embedded option. Examples indicate that our closed form model produces reasonably precise coupon rates compared to numerical solutions. The credit-spread produced by our model is in a realistic order of magnitude compared to market data.     

我国国债规模对宏观经济影响实证分析

随着以希腊债务危机为导火索的欧洲债务危机的愈演愈烈,国债对宏观经济的影响再一次成为了经济学讨论的热点.首先从直观图形着手,运用H-P滤度法去除趋势后,计算各变量的偏离趋势百分比,对比国债规模代替变量与宏观经济效应代替变量之间的偏离趋势图,从图形得到的定量关系为后面的实证分析做好准备.然后进一步进行协整分析,并在向量自回归(VAR)框架下通过脉冲响应函数考察变量之间的相互影响路径,最后通过建立误差修正模型(ECM)分析各个变量之间的长期均衡关系和短期波动特征,以量化各变量之间影响程度的大小.全面系统地研究了国债对宏观经济增长的影响程度并做出实证分析,对于深刻认识国债的本质,规避国债的风险,科学合理地制定国债政策有着重要的理论价值和实际意义.     

A mixed integer linear programming model for optimal sovereign debt issuance

Governments borrow funds to finance the excess of cash payments or interest payments over receipts, usually by issuing fixed income debt and index-linked debt. The goal of this work is to propose a stochastic optimization-based approach to determine the composition of the portfolio issued over a series of government auctions for the fixed income debt, to minimize the cost of servicing debt while controlling risk and maintaining market liquidity. We show that this debt issuance problem can be modeled as a mixed integer linear programming problem with a receding horizon. The stochastic model for the interest rates is calibrated using a Kalman filter and the future interest rates are represented using a recombining trinomial lattice for the purpose of scenario-based optimization. The use of a latent factor interest rate model and a recombining lattice provides us with a realistic, yet very tractable scenario generator and allows us to do a multi-stage stochastic optimization involving integer variables on an ordinary desktop in a matter of seconds. This, in turn, facilitates frequent re-calibration of the interest rate model and re-optimization of the issuance throughout the budgetary year allows us to respond to the changes in the interest rate environment. We successfully demonstrate the utility of our approach by out-of-sample back-testing on the UK debt issuance data.     

基于权益再融资与策略性债务支付的公司财务困境纾解研究

为了应对公司财务困境问题,在兼顾股东与债权人利益的基础上,采用激励相容理论,构建了基于权益再融资和策略性债务支付的公司定价模型,厘清了权益再融资、债务重组、财务困境及其伴生的再谈判之间的关系,据此提出了一种公司财务困境纾解方案。特别地,给出了策略性债务支付下进行权益再融资的可行性依据,并辅以再谈判手段及股东、债权人双方利益最大化目标,确定了最优重组边界及最优减记息票。分析结果表明:①将策略性债务支付置于财务困境之后、兼容权益再融资的综合方案,可在一定程度上避免策略性债务支付行为的投机性所导致的对公司定价的高估,产生了在一定条件下增加债务价值、放缓信用价差增长速度的效果;②权益再融资成本与信用价差之间呈现倒U型关系;③基于纳什均衡博弈的策略性债务支付减记息票不受流动性及权益再融资的影响,并可保证其处于公司的支付能力之内。     

网络流在清理三角债问题中的应用

本文把清理三角债中两种优化数学模型问题，化成求解相应网络上最小费用流的问题，从而得到（强）多项式算法，并把另外的一种优化数学模型问题。化成线性规划问题.于是解答了文[3]中提出的清理三角债的三个基本问题．     

Measuring the default risk of sovereign debt from the perspective of network

Recently, there has been a growing interest in network research, especially in the fields of biology, computer science, and sociology. It is natural to address complex financial issues such as the European sovereign debt crisis from the perspective of network. In this article, we construct a network model according to the debt–credit relations instead of using the conventional methodology to measure the default risk. Based on the model, a risk index is examined using the quarterly report of consolidated foreign claims from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and debt/GDP ratios among these reporting countries. The empirical results show that this index can help the regulators and practitioners not only to determine the status of interconnectivity but also to point out the degree of the sovereign debt default risk. Our approach sheds new light on the investigation of quantifying the systemic risk.     

"老人"历史债务的双随机模型

为社会养老保险制度转轨过程中的“老人”历史债务建立了双随机模型，得到了“老人”历史债务的前二阶段，并对息力累积函数以Wiener过程和Ornstein-Uhlenbeck过程建模得到了的具体表达式。最后做了一个实例，以浙江省某市的实际数据，估算了该市的“老人”历史债务额。