Tokamak中自举电流的剖面准直性

利用Harris模型,通过求解等离子体平衡方程,计算俘获粒子份额,分别对常规剪切和中心负剪切下tokamak中的自举电流的大小和剖面准直性进行了计算和分析.自举电流分布与等离子体平衡电流分布之间的剖面准直性可以通过调整等离子体的密度、温度和电流分布参数,以及描述等离子体形状的拉长度k和三角变形因子d来获得.中心负剪切位形有利于自举电流产生,并有好的剖面准直性.通过计算比较,分别在常规剪切位形下和中心负剪切位形下获得了一组优化的等离子体参数,在这组参数下,自举电流有较大的份额和好的剖面准直性 关键词： tokamak 自举电流 剖面准直性     

中国银行间拆借利率扩散模型的极大拟似然估计

本文用极大拟似然估计法估计了中国银行间市场七天拆借利率扩散模型的参数。并用自助法对众多不同的模型进行了广义拟似然比检验。结论表明:中国货币市场利率具有均值回复效应:利率敏感系数γ值为1.421265,对利率水平具有较高敏感性。     

Bayesian Probabilities and the Histories Algebra

We attempt a justification of a generalisation of the consistent histories programme using a notion of probability that is valid for all complete sets of history propositions. This consists of introducing Cox's axioms of probability theory and showing that our candidate notion of probability obeys them. We also give a generalisation of Bayes' theorem and comment upon how Bayesianism should be useful for the quantum gravity/cosmology programmes. PACS: 02.50.Cw;03.65.Ta;04.60.-m.     

Bayesian Object Identification: Variants

We present a Bayesian theory of object identification. Here, identifying an object means selecting a particular observation from a group of observations (variants), this observation (the regular variant) being characterized by a distributional model. In this sense, object identification means assigning a given model to one of several observations. Often, it is the statistical model of the regular variant, only, that is known. We study an estimator which relies essentially on this model and not on the characteristics of the “irregular” variants. In particular, we investigate under what conditions this variant selector is optimal. It turns out that there is a close relationship with exchangeability and Markovian reversibility. We finally apply our theory to the case of irregular variants generated from the regular variant by a Gaussian linear model.     

Consistency of a myopic Bayesian algorithm for one-dimensional global optimization

A sequential Bayesian method for finding the maximum of a function based on myopically minimizing the expected dispersion of conditional probabilities is described. It is shown by example that an algorithm that generates a dense set of observations need not converge to the correct answer for some priors on continuous functions on the unit interval. For the Brownian motion prior the myopic algorithm is consistent; for any continuous function, the conditional probabilities converge weakly to a point mass at the true maximum.     

最大似然方法和Bayes方法在结构方程模型分析中的讨论(英文)

本文通过模拟研究,讨论了最大似然方法和Bayes方法在分析结构方程模型中的相似点和不同之处。     

Reference priors for exponential families with simple quadratic variance function

Reference analysis is one of the most successful general methods to derive noninformative prior distributions. In practice, however, reference priors are often difficult to obtain. Recently developed theory for conditionally reducible natural exponential families identifies an attractive reparameterization which allows one, among other things, to construct an enriched conjugate prior. In this paper, under the assumption that the variance function is simple quadratic, the order-invariant group reference prior for the above parameter is found. Furthermore, group reference priors for the mean- and natural parameter of the families are obtained. A brief discussion of the frequentist coverage properties is also presented. The theory is illustrated for the multinomial and negative-multinomial family. Posterior computations are especially straightforward due to the fact that the resulting reference distributions belong to the corresponding enriched conjugate family. A substantive application of the theory relates to the construction of reference priors for the Bayesian analysis of two-way contingency tables with respect to two alternative parameterizations.     

无失效数据的Bayes和多层Bayes分析

本文推广了文献[6]的结果，对指数分布无失效数据的失效率，给出了Bayes估计、Bayes置信上限以及多层Bayes估计，从而可以得到无失效数据可靠度的估计，最后，结合实际问题进行了计算。     

Size dependence of self-diffusion in the hard-square lattice gas

A striking size dependence of the mean-square displacement of diffusing particles in the two-dimensional lattice gas of hard squares has been observed by Monte Carlo simulation. It is shown that the size effect is due to the formation of a stable cage structure in small lattices when the particle concentration is high. The formation of cages is governed by a new type of percolation problem related to bootstrap percolation.     

Global Optimal Image Reconstruction from Blurred Noisy Data by a Bayesian Approach

In this paper, a procedure is presented which allows the optimal reconstruction of images from blurred noisy data. The procedure relies on a general Bayesian approach, which makes proper use of all the available information. Special attention is devoted to the informative content of the edges; thus, a preprocessing phase is included, with the aim of estimating the jump sizes in the gray level. The optimization phase follows; existence and uniqueness of the solution is secured. The procedure is tested against simple simulated data and real data.