Bayesian Probabilities and the Histories Algebra

We attempt a justification of a generalisation of the consistent histories programme using a notion of probability that is valid for all complete sets of history propositions. This consists of introducing Cox's axioms of probability theory and showing that our candidate notion of probability obeys them. We also give a generalisation of Bayes' theorem and comment upon how Bayesianism should be useful for the quantum gravity/cosmology programmes. PACS: 02.50.Cw;03.65.Ta;04.60.-m.     

Bayesian Object Identification: Variants

We present a Bayesian theory of object identification. Here, identifying an object means selecting a particular observation from a group of observations (variants), this observation (the regular variant) being characterized by a distributional model. In this sense, object identification means assigning a given model to one of several observations. Often, it is the statistical model of the regular variant, only, that is known. We study an estimator which relies essentially on this model and not on the characteristics of the “irregular” variants. In particular, we investigate under what conditions this variant selector is optimal. It turns out that there is a close relationship with exchangeability and Markovian reversibility. We finally apply our theory to the case of irregular variants generated from the regular variant by a Gaussian linear model.     

Consistency of a myopic Bayesian algorithm for one-dimensional global optimization

A sequential Bayesian method for finding the maximum of a function based on myopically minimizing the expected dispersion of conditional probabilities is described. It is shown by example that an algorithm that generates a dense set of observations need not converge to the correct answer for some priors on continuous functions on the unit interval. For the Brownian motion prior the myopic algorithm is consistent; for any continuous function, the conditional probabilities converge weakly to a point mass at the true maximum.     

最大似然方法和Bayes方法在结构方程模型分析中的讨论(英文)

本文通过模拟研究,讨论了最大似然方法和Bayes方法在分析结构方程模型中的相似点和不同之处。     

Reference priors for exponential families with simple quadratic variance function

Reference analysis is one of the most successful general methods to derive noninformative prior distributions. In practice, however, reference priors are often difficult to obtain. Recently developed theory for conditionally reducible natural exponential families identifies an attractive reparameterization which allows one, among other things, to construct an enriched conjugate prior. In this paper, under the assumption that the variance function is simple quadratic, the order-invariant group reference prior for the above parameter is found. Furthermore, group reference priors for the mean- and natural parameter of the families are obtained. A brief discussion of the frequentist coverage properties is also presented. The theory is illustrated for the multinomial and negative-multinomial family. Posterior computations are especially straightforward due to the fact that the resulting reference distributions belong to the corresponding enriched conjugate family. A substantive application of the theory relates to the construction of reference priors for the Bayesian analysis of two-way contingency tables with respect to two alternative parameterizations.     

Global Optimal Image Reconstruction from Blurred Noisy Data by a Bayesian Approach

In this paper, a procedure is presented which allows the optimal reconstruction of images from blurred noisy data. The procedure relies on a general Bayesian approach, which makes proper use of all the available information. Special attention is devoted to the informative content of the edges; thus, a preprocessing phase is included, with the aim of estimating the jump sizes in the gray level. The optimization phase follows; existence and uniqueness of the solution is secured. The procedure is tested against simple simulated data and real data.     

A subjective Bayesian approach to the theory of queues II — Inference and information in M/M/1 queues

This is a sequel to Part I of A Subjective Bayesian Approach to the Theory of Queues. The focus here is on inference and a use of Shannon's measure of information for assessing the amount of information conveyed by the various types of data from queues. The notation and terminology used here is established in Part I.     

基于小波分解系数的贝叶斯人脸识别方法

本文给出了贝叶斯人脸识别方法中匹配准则的多个近似表达式及一种实用的快速计算方法.在此基础上,利用反对称双正交小波变换的微分算子功能,提出了一种利用两幅人脸图象的小波变换系数差作为模式矢量的贝叶斯人脸识别方法,并利用AR人脸图象库进行了实验.实验结果表明本文方法与基于图象灰度的类似方法相比,识别率提高8%左右.此外本文方法也提供了一条在图象压缩数据域中实现人脸识别的可能途径.     

Intelligibility enhancement for noisy whispered speech using asymmetric cost function

We proposed two whispered speech enhancement methods based on asymmetric cost functions in this paper to deal with the amplification and attenuation distortions of whispered speech distinctively.The modified Itakura-Saito（MIS）distance function provides more penalties to speech amplification distortion,whereas the Kullback-Leibler（KL）divergence function gives more penalties to speech attenuation distortion.The experimental results show that the MIS function based method achieves significant improvement of intelligibility in contrast to the conventional speech enhancement algorithms when the signal-to-noise ratio（SNR）falls below-6 dB,whereas the KL function based one achieves the similar result as the minimum mean square error（MMSE）speech enhancement method.The results show that the effects of the amplification and attenuation distortions on the intelligibility of the enhanced whisper are different,where larger attenuation distortion may result in better intelligibility of speech with low SNR.However,the attenuation distortion has small effects on intelligibility of speech with high SNR.