浅谈合情推理的教学

论述了合情推理与逻辑推理的关系、在高等数学教学中渗透合情推理的意义 ,并结合教学实践就通过合情推理引入数学理论 ,探求问题结论 ,探索解题方法作了初步探讨     

On Bayes and unbiased estimators of loss

We consider estimation of loss for generalized Bayes or pseudo-Bayes estimators of a multivariate normal mean vector, θ. In 3 and higher dimensions, the MLEX is UMVUE and minimax but is inadmissible. It is dominated by the James-Stein estimator and by many others. Johnstone (1988, On inadmissibility of some unbiased estimates of loss,Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics, IV (eds. S. S. Gupta and J. O. Berger), Vol. 1, 361–379, Springer, New York) considered the estimation of loss for the usual estimatorX and the James-Stein estimator. He found improvements over the Stein unbiased estimator of risk. In this paper, for a generalized Bayes point estimator of θ, we compare generalized Bayes estimators to unbiased estimators of loss. We find, somewhat surprisingly, that the unbiased estimator often dominates the corresponding generalized Bayes estimator of loss for priors which give minimax estimators in the original point estimation problem. In particular, we give a class of priors for which the generalized Bayes estimator of θ is admissible and minimax but for which the unbiased estimator of loss dominates the generalized Bayes estimator of loss. We also give a general inadmissibility result for a generalized Bayes estimator of loss. Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-97-04524.     

Locally Adaptive Wavelet Empirical Bayes Estimation of a Location Parameter

The traditional empirical Bayes (EB) model is considered with the parameter being a location parameter, in the situation when the Bayes estimator has a finite degree of smoothness and, possibly, jump discontinuities at several points. A nonlinear wavelet EB estimator based on wavelets with bounded supports is constructed, and it is shown that a finite number of jump discontinuities in the Bayes estimator do not affect the rate of convergence of the prior risk of the EB estimator to zero. It is also demonstrated that the estimator adjusts to the degree of smoothness of the Bayes estimator, locally, so that outside the neighborhoods of the points of discontinuities, the posterior risk has a high rate of convergence to zero. Hence, the technique suggested in the paper provides estimators which are significantly superior in several respects to those constructed earlier.     

模糊事件贝叶斯公式

讨论了模糊事件的概率及其基本性质 ,并通过对经典贝叶斯公式的推广 ,提出了模糊事件的贝叶斯公式 .     

Bayes估计的进一步研究及其Pitman最优性

对线性模型参数,讨论了Bayes估计的Pitman最优性,将已有结果进行了改进,去掉了附加条件,证明了在Pitman准则下,Bayes估计一致优于最小二乘估计(LSE),在此基础上,提出了一种基于先验信息的方差分量估计,通过和基于LSE的方差分量估计作比较,证明了新估计是无偏估计且有更小的均方误差．最后,证明了在Pitman准则下生长曲线模型参数的Bayes估计优于最佳线性无偏估计．     

Automatic detection and identification of shocks in Gaussian state‐space models: a Bayesian approach

An automatic monitoring and intervention algorithm that permits the supervision of very general aspects in an univariate linear Gaussian state–space model is proposed. The algorithm makes use of a model comparison and selection approach within a Bayesian framework. In addition, this algorithm incorporates the possibility of eliminating earlier interventions when subsequent evidence against them comes to light. Finally, the procedure is illustrated with two empirical examples taken from the literature. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimal volume-corrected laplace-metropolis method

The article provides a refinement for the volume-corrected Laplace-Metropolis estimator of the marginal likelihood of DiCiccioet al. The correction volume of probability α in DiCiccioet al. is fixed and suggested to take the value α=0.05. In this article α is selected based on an asymptotic analysis to minimize the mean square relative error (MSRE). This optimal choice of α is shown to be invariant under linear transformations. The invariance property leads to easy implementation for multivariate problems. An implementation procedure is provided for practical use. A simulation study and a real data example are presented.     

煤炭码头船货匹配下泊位动态分配多目标优化模型及算法

本文针对输出型煤炭码头船货匹配下泊位动态分配问题,构建了堆场-取装线-泊位-船舶联合分配优化数学模型,并设计了采用仿真推演策略解码的遗传算法求解。首先,综合考虑船舶、泊位、堆场、取装线、煤种、航道开放时间和装船作业规则等要素,以船舶在港时间最短和作业效率最大为目标建立了相应的多约束多目标优化模型。然后,综合多目标优化、遗传算法以及仿真推演技术,设计了相应的遗传算法求解,包括:组合式编码、采用仿真推演策略的解码方法,追加了具有合法性检查的染色体生成算法,设计了采用多种策略的遗传操作等。最后实例表明,本算法的执行效率高而且优化效果好。     

A result on hypothesis testing for a multivariate normal distribution when some observations are missing

Let U_i = (X_i, Y_i), i = 1, 2,…, n, be a random sample from a bivariate normal distribution with mean μ = (μ_x, μ_y) and covariance matrix

. Let X_i, i = n + 1,…, N represent additional independent observations on the X population. Consider the hypothesis testing problem H₀ : μ = 0 vs. H₁ : μ ≠ 0. We prove that Hotelling's T² test, which uses (X_i, Y_i), i = 1, 2,…, n (and discards X_i, i = n + 1,…, N) is an admissible test. In addition, and from a practical point of view, the proof will enable us to identify the region of the parameter space where the T²-test cannot be beaten. A similar result is also proved for the problem of testing μ_x ? μ_y = 0. A Bayes test and other competitors which are similar tests are discussed.     

Bayes estimation with spherically symmetric,convex loss

Summary It is desired to estimate a parameter with the loss function of the formL(θ, a)=W(‖θ−a‖), where is convex, differentiable, and non-decreasing. With this structure a characterization of Bayes estimators is given. Also it is noted that if the sample space, , for the observation,X, is a complete separable metric space then a Bayes estimator exists.