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1.
Dominique Fourdrinier William E. Strawderman 《Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics》2003,55(4):803-816
We consider estimation of loss for generalized Bayes or pseudo-Bayes estimators of a multivariate normal mean vector, θ. In
3 and higher dimensions, the MLEX is UMVUE and minimax but is inadmissible. It is dominated by the James-Stein estimator and by many others. Johnstone (1988,
On inadmissibility of some unbiased estimates of loss,Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics, IV (eds. S. S. Gupta and J. O. Berger), Vol. 1, 361–379, Springer, New York) considered the estimation of loss for the usual
estimatorX and the James-Stein estimator. He found improvements over the Stein unbiased estimator of risk. In this paper, for a generalized
Bayes point estimator of θ, we compare generalized Bayes estimators to unbiased estimators of loss. We find, somewhat surprisingly,
that the unbiased estimator often dominates the corresponding generalized Bayes estimator of loss for priors which give minimax
estimators in the original point estimation problem. In particular, we give a class of priors for which the generalized Bayes
estimator of θ is admissible and minimax but for which the unbiased estimator of loss dominates the generalized Bayes estimator
of loss. We also give a general inadmissibility result for a generalized Bayes estimator of loss.
Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-97-04524. 相似文献
2.
Marianna Pensky 《Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics》2002,54(1):83-99
The traditional empirical Bayes (EB) model is considered with the parameter being a location parameter, in the situation when the Bayes estimator has a finite degree of smoothness and, possibly, jump discontinuities at several points. A nonlinear wavelet EB estimator based on wavelets with bounded supports is constructed, and it is shown that a finite number of jump discontinuities in the Bayes estimator do not affect the rate of convergence of the prior risk of the EB estimator to zero. It is also demonstrated that the estimator adjusts to the degree of smoothness of the Bayes estimator, locally, so that outside the neighborhoods of the points of discontinuities, the posterior risk has a high rate of convergence to zero. Hence, the technique suggested in the paper provides estimators which are significantly superior in several respects to those constructed earlier. 相似文献
3.
4.
对线性模型参数,讨论了Bayes估计的Pitman最优性,将已有结果进行了改进,去掉了附加条件,证明了在Pitman准则下,Bayes估计一致优于最小二乘估计(LSE),在此基础上,提出了一种基于先验信息的方差分量估计,通过和基于LSE的方差分量估计作比较,证明了新估计是无偏估计且有更小的均方误差.最后,证明了在Pitman准则下生长曲线模型参数的Bayes估计优于最佳线性无偏估计. 相似文献
5.
Automatic detection and identification of shocks in Gaussian state‐space models: a Bayesian approach
An automatic monitoring and intervention algorithm that permits the supervision of very general aspects in an univariate linear Gaussian state–space model is proposed. The algorithm makes use of a model comparison and selection approach within a Bayesian framework. In addition, this algorithm incorporates the possibility of eliminating earlier interventions when subsequent evidence against them comes to light. Finally, the procedure is illustrated with two empirical examples taken from the literature. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
6.
Su-Yun Huang Chuhsing Kate Hsiao Ching-Wei Chang 《Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics》2003,55(3):655-670
The article provides a refinement for the volume-corrected Laplace-Metropolis estimator of the marginal likelihood of DiCiccioet al. The correction volume of probability α in DiCiccioet al. is fixed and suggested to take the value α=0.05. In this article α is selected based on an asymptotic analysis to minimize
the mean square relative error (MSRE). This optimal choice of α is shown to be invariant under linear transformations. The
invariance property leads to easy implementation for multivariate problems. An implementation procedure is provided for practical
use. A simulation study and a real data example are presented. 相似文献
7.
Arthur Cohen 《Journal of multivariate analysis》1977,7(3):454-460
Let Ui = (Xi, Yi), i = 1, 2,…, n, be a random sample from a bivariate normal distribution with mean μ = (μx, μy) and covariance matrix . Let Xi, i = n + 1,…, N represent additional independent observations on the X population. Consider the hypothesis testing problem H0 : μ = 0 vs. H1 : μ ≠ 0. We prove that Hotelling's T2 test, which uses (Xi, Yi), i = 1, 2,…, n (and discards Xi, i = n + 1,…, N) is an admissible test. In addition, and from a practical point of view, the proof will enable us to identify the region of the parameter space where the T2-test cannot be beaten. A similar result is also proved for the problem of testing μx ? μy = 0. A Bayes test and other competitors which are similar tests are discussed. 相似文献
8.
Dale Umbach 《Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics》1981,33(1):81-90
Summary It is desired to estimate a parameter
with the loss function of the formL(θ, a)=W(‖θ−a‖), where
is convex, differentiable, and non-decreasing. With this structure a characterization of Bayes estimators is given. Also
it is noted that if the sample space,
, for the observation,X, is a complete separable metric space then a Bayes estimator exists. 相似文献
9.
Helmut Strasser 《Journal of multivariate analysis》1975,5(2):206-226
Let (X, ) be a measurable space, Θ ? an open interval and PΩ ∥ , Ω ? Θ, a family of probability measures fulfilling certain regularity conditions. Let be the maximum likelihood estimate for the sample size n. Let λ be a prior distribution on Θ and let be the posterior distribution for the sample size n given . denotes a loss function fulfilling certain regularity conditions and Tn denotes the Bayes estimate relative to λ and L for the sample size n. It is proved that for every compact K ? Θ there exists cK ≥ 0 such that This theorem improves results of Bickel and Yahav [3], and Ibragimov and Has'minskii [4], as far as the speed of convergence is concerned. 相似文献
10.
近年来,随着对外贸易的快速发展和人民生活水平的不断提高,我国已经成为食品进口大国。运用科学的方法优化检验资源配置,强化对进口食品安全的风险管理,是一个关系到人民福社的重大问题。国际上通行的做法是对不同种类的食品和检测项目的潜在风险进行评估,并根据评估结果制定有针对性的监督抽检计划,使得更多的检验资源可以投入到对高风险产品和项目的监管中去。我国在这方面的管理实践才刚刚起步,急需建立一套符合我国食品进口自身特点和管理需求的风险评价模型和相应的估计方法。本文借鉴了其它国家的相关做法,并结合我国进口食品的管理需求和历史检测数据的特点,制定了一套完整的风险评价和估计方法。 相似文献