标的资产服从几何分数布朗运动的期权定价

本文在M ogens B ladt和T ina H av iid R ydberg无市场假设,仅利用价格过程的实际概率的期权保险精算定价模型的基础上,得出了标的资产服从几何分数布朗运动的欧式期权定价公式,并说明了几何布朗运动是本文的一种特殊情况.     

Is mortality or interest rate the most important risk in annuity models? A comparison of sensitivity analysis methods

Demographic and financial factors are key risk-drivers for insurance companies and pension funds. This paper proposes a systematic investigation for deepening our understanding how these risk drivers affect the annuity cost. We employ local and global sensitivity methods. For local sensitivity, we derive closed form expressions for the differential importance measures of perturbed annuities and connect them to the entropy of the annuity cost. For global sensitivity, we compare variance-based, moment-independent sensitivity measures and Shapley effects. In particular, moment-independent sensitivity measures and Shapley effects are compared for the first time in the case of dependent risk factors. Our framework encompasses and extends several previous results on the sensitivity analysis of annuity models. From a methodological viewpoint, the techniques compared in this paper can support analysts in building annuity models and in verifying the impact of risk drivers in their models. Numerical results using the U.S. 1990 and the U.K. 1990–1994 mortality tables show that the demographic factor is the most important risk source in low-interest rate contexts. However, when uncertainty on the two risk sources is taken into account, the financial factor becomes the global key-driver of risk. Also, interactions among the two factors appear quantitatively significant.     

随机利率下两全保险最佳年限的确定模型

寿险模型中利率的随机性问题是近几年来保险精算学中研究的热点和重点问题。本文从降低保险公司所面临风险的角度出发,在随机利率条件下给出确定两全保险的最佳年限模型。     

An Algorithmic Approach to Discrete Time Non-homogeneous Backward Semi-Markov Reward Processes with an Application to Disability Insurance

In this paper semi-Markov reward models are presented. Higher moments of the reward process is presented for the first time applied to in time non-homogeneous semi-Markov insurance problems. Also an example is presented based on real disability data. Different algorithmic approaches to solve the problem is described. This work is partly supported by the Knowledge Foundation and Sparbankens Stiftelse Nya. The authors would like to thank the anonymous referee.     

On the solution of some (parametric) linear complementarity problems with applications to portfolio selection,structural engineering and actuarial graduation

In this paper we discuss three applications of a class of (parametric) linear complementarity problems arising independently from such diverse areas as portfolio selection, structural engineering and actuarial graduation. After explaining how the complementarity problems emerge in these applications, we perform some analytical comparisons (based on operation counts and storage requirements) of several existing algorithms for solving this class of complementarity problems. We shall also present computational results to support the analytical comparisons. Finally, we deduce some conclusions about the general performance of these algorithms.This research is supported in part by the United States Army under Contract No. DAAG29-75-C-0024, the National Science Foundation under Grant No. MCS75-17385 and Grant ENG77-11136.     

一类随机利率下的变额寿险模型研究

本文对随机利率采用在原点反射的布朗运动以及负二项分布建模，具体以即时给付的综合人寿保险模型为研究对象，对寿险理论中的保费，年金以及责任准备金进行研究，并给出相应的表达式。     

Fair dynamic valuation of insurance liabilities: Merging actuarial judgement with market- and time-consistency

In this paper, we investigate the fair valuation of insurance liabilities in a dynamic multi-period setting. We define a fair dynamic valuation as a valuation which is actuarial (mark-to-model for claims independent of financial market evolutions), market-consistent (mark-to-market for any hedgeable part of a claim) and time-consistent, extending the work of Dhaene et al. (2017) and Barigou and Dhaene (2019). We provide a complete hedging characterization for fair dynamic valuations. Moreover, we show how to implement fair dynamic valuations through a backward iterations scheme combining risk minimization methods from mathematical finance with standard actuarial techniques based on risk measures.     

A unisex stochastic mortality model to comply with EU Gender Directive

EU Gender Directive ruled out discrimination against gender in charging premium for insurance products. This prohibition prevents the use of the standard actuarial fairness principle to price life insurance products. According to current actuarial practice, unisex premiums are calculated with a simple weighting rule of the gender-specific life tables. This procedure is likely to violate portfolio fairness principles. Up to our knowledge, in the actuarial literature there is no unisex mortality model that respects the unisex fairness principle. This paper is the first attempt to fill this gap. First, we recall the notion of unisex fairness principle and the corresponding unisex fair premium. Then, we provide a unisex stochastic mortality model for the mortality intensity that is underlying the pricing of a life portfolio of females and males belonging to the same cohort. Finally, we calibrate the unisex mortality model using the unisex fairness principle. We find that the weighting coefficient between the males’ and females’ own mortalities depends mainly on the quote of portfolio relative to each gender, on the age, and on the type of insurance products. The knowledge of a proper unisex mortality model could help life insurance companies to better understanding the nature of the risk of a mixed portfolio.     

一类养老金精算成本模型

本文建立了一类养老金精算成本模型．该模型的基本思想是，当雇员加入养老金计划之后，与雇员的未来服务年限有关的养老金利益的精算现值由雇主（或雇主与雇员一起）用拨款的形式缴清，而与雇员在参加养老金计划之前的过去服务年限有关的养老金利益则另行处理．所以称该模型为应计利益精算成本模型．