Weak convergence of the U-statistic and weak invariance of the one-sample rank order statistic for Markov processes and ARMA models

Harel and Puri (1989, J. Multivariate Anal. 29) studied the asymptotic behavior of the U-statistic and the one-sample rank order statistic for nonstationary absolutely regular processes. In this note, we present some applications of these results for Markov processes as well as ARMA processes.     

有限循环群的Fuzzy子群的等价类数

有限循环群G的F子群可以有无数个．但是．若当两个F子群的水平集构成的集合相等就称其等价的话，那么其等价类数是有限的。通过研究群的合成群列、商群列以及数的因数列和极大因数列找出了有限循环群的极大F子群和F子群的等价类数的求解公式．并给出二者之间的关系式．     

Generators of some Ramanujan formulas

In this paper we prove some Ramanujan type formulas for 1/π but without using the theory of modular forms. Instead we use the WZ—method created by H. Wilf and D. Zeilberger and find some hypergeometric functions in two variables which are second components of WZ—pairs than can be certified using Zeilberger's EKHAD package. These certificates have an additional property which allows us to get generalized Ramanujan's type series which are routinely proven by computer. We call these second hypergeometric components of the WZ—pairs generators. Finding generators seems a hard task but using a kind of experimental research (explained below), we have succeeded in finding some of them. Unfortunately we have not found yet generators for the most impressive Ramanujan's formulas. We also prove some interesting binomial sums for the constant 1/π². Finally we rewrite many of the obtained series using pochhammer symbols and study the rate of convergence. 2000 Mathematics Subject Classification Primary—33C20     

THE FIRST EXPERIMENT OF A THz GYROTRON WITH A PULSE MAGNET

A THz gyrotron with a pulse magnet has been designed, constructed and operated in FIR FU. It is developed as one of high frequency gyrotrons included in Gyrotron FU Series. The gyrotron has already achieved the first experimental result for high frequency operations whose radiation frequency exceeds 1 THz. In this paper, the design detail and the operation test results for sub-terahertz to terahertz range are described. The second harmonic operation is confirmed experimentally at the expected frequency of 1.005 THz due to TE_6,11 cavity mode at the magnetic field intensity of 19.0 T.     

带ARMA(1,1)条件异方差相关的随机波动模型的MCMC算法

我们首先提出了一个带ARMA(1,1)条件异方差相关的随机波动模型,它是基本的随机波动模型的一个自然的推广.进一步,对于这一新模型,我们给出了一个马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(M CM C)算法.最后,利用该模型的模拟数据,展示了M CM C算法在这种模型中的应用.     

青岛港货运吞吐量的时间序列模型

运用时间序列分析方法对时间序列建立ARMA,ARIMA模型.搜集了青岛港1999年1月～2003年5月的货运吞吐量数据,对进行分析,建立了青岛港货运吞吐量的模型.通过预留的部分数据对模型进行检验,并对模型的残差进行检验,得出模型比较合理.     

某些级数的无理性

本文证明了某些与二阶线性递推数列有关的无穷级数的和的无理性．特别，推广了某些与Ｆｉｂｏｎａｃｃｉ和Ｌｕｃａｓ数列有关的无理性结果     

关于双重时序AR-MA模型的相关结构及与ARMA模型的比较

本文在文［４］的基础上讨论了双重时序ＡＲ（１）－ＭＡ（ｑ）模型的相关结构，在不假定白噪声序列为正态的情况下，证明了安鸿志［２］关于模型的相关结构的猜想是正确的，具体地构造了ＡＲ（１）－ＭＡ（３）模型的相关结构，并与ＡＲＭＡ模型进行了初步的比较，给出了一些抛砖引玉的讨论．     

On the estimation of nonlinear time series models

In the present paper, a framework for parametric estimation in nonlinear time series is developed. Strong consistency and asymptotic normality of minimum Hellinger distance estimates for a determined class of nonlinear models are investigated. The main Interest for these estimates is motivated by their robustness under perturbations as it has been emphazized in Beran [2]. The first part of the paper is devoted to the study of some probabilistic properties which ensure the existence and the optimal properties of the estimates     

A multivariate evolutionary credibility model for mortality improvement rates

The present paper proposes an evolutionary credibility model that describes the joint dynamics of mortality through time in several populations. Instead of modeling the mortality rate levels, the time series of population-specific mortality rate changes, or mortality improvement rates are considered and expressed in terms of correlated time factors, up to an error term. Dynamic random effects ensure the necessary smoothing across time, as well as the learning effect. They also serve to stabilize successive mortality projection outputs, avoiding dramatic changes from one year to the next. Statistical inference is based on maximum likelihood, properly recognizing the random, hidden nature of underlying time factors. Empirical illustrations demonstrate the practical interest of the approach proposed in the present paper.