Evaluation of the Kushida Method of short-term earthquake prediction

Kushida and Kushida found that FM radio waves from stations at distances over-the-horizon are received before earthquakes. Based on this finding, since the mid-1990’s, the Kushidas have been practicing “Earthquake Precursor Detection Experiment”. The performance of the Kushida method during 2000–2003 has been evaluated by checking their predictions against the actual seismicity. During the period, there were 92 Kushida predictions mentioning the possibility of M ≥ 5.5 event, whereas there were 49 M ≥ 5.5 earthquakes in the Japanese region. If the criteria for successful prediction are set as: the errors in date is less than one day, epicentral position is roughly within specified area, and error in M is less than 0.5, the success rate was 20% and the alarm rate was 12%. If we relax the criteria to: the errors in dates within 10 days, epicenter within additional 100 km of specified area and the magnitude error less than 1.0, the success rate was 40% and the alarm rate was 27%. These rates may look insufficient for a practical prediction method. Considering, however, the fact that no other short-term prediction has ever been made in Japan so far it is a significant achievement. Moreover, it was found that in almost all failed predictions, meaningful signals were detected although the interpretations were incorrect. This indicates that the method is promising provided further investigation is carried out. The same evaluation at the M ≥ 6.0 level showed that the general performance was similar to the M ≥ 5.5 level, except that both success rate and alarm rate were lower at the M ≥ 6.0 level. If this unexpected finding is real, it might be inherent to the methodology using scattering of short-wave length radio waves as suggested by M. Hayakawa and may contain important information in understanding the earthquake physics and LAI-coupling. The results of the present study indicate strongly that the earthquake prediction research using anomalous transmission of VHF FM radio waves should be enhanced in parallel with complementary research in other frequency ranges.     

A preliminary study of post-seismic effects of radon following the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake

The observation data for radon from national geochemical observation points have been collected and analyzed following the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on 12th May, 2008 and a post-seismic effect of radon was observed. It has provided the most abundant record since the radon observation network had been set up in china. In this paper, the behaviour of the post-seismic effects of radon gas and water radon is reported. The results were obtained that observation points recording post-seismic effects of radon release were distributed mainly along the extended line of Longmenshan faults, and located on the boundary faults of regional tectonic blocks (Category II) and inside some tectonic blocks (Category II). The pattern of variation in radon emission observed was largely in the form of rising steps. A comparison was made with the variation of water level and flow observed simultaneously with radon measurement, to investigate a dynamic link with post-seismic radon with underground water conditions. This study confirmed a response of radon concentration to the seismic wave, and also raised other scientific issues, such as the dynamic association between geochemical composition of underground water and medium parameter variation of aquifers under dynamic loading, which may support the study of the mechanism of earthquake precursors of radon.     

5.12汶川大地震诱发大型崩滑灾害动力特征初探

对乙炔氧气混合气体中爆轰波与激波的正面对撞现象的实验研究是以高速摄影获 取两波对撞的x-t纹影图,以烟迹板记录对撞中的爆轰胞格图案,并基于激波 理论和经典CJ爆轰理论求解了两波对撞的稳态解并探寻其规律. 研究发现透射波系包括一道激波和爆轰波, 以及紧随爆轰波后的稀疏波区,这一结果对应于一维理论分析中的CJ解. 透射波系基本不受 初始压强影响;初始温度也只成比例地改变流场整体速度,温度越高,速度越快;对波系起 实质影响作用的是入射激波强度,激波越强,则整个透射流场呈现偏向激波的趋势;理论分 析还指出,稀疏波区的出现不可避免,当激波强度趋于声波稀疏波区趋于消失,激波越强则 疏波区趋于扩大. 两波对撞存在一个有限的转变阶段,透射爆轰首先减缓,接着迅速迸发为 过驱爆轰,然后再逐渐平衡为CJ爆轰. 对于强不稳定的燃气,对撞后爆轰波在空间上的发展 极不均衡,一些区域发生火焰面与诱导激波的严重脱离,随后的火焰面失稳发展为诱导激波 区内的爆轰波,实验观察到了这种爆轰在烟迹板上留下的极为精细的迹线.     

Earth surface effects on active faults: An eigenvalue asymptotic analysis

We study in this paper an eigenvalue problem (of Steklov type), modeling slow slip events (such as silent earthquakes, or earthquake nucleation phases) occurring on geological faults. We focus here on a half space formulation with traction free boundary condition: this simulates the earth surface where displacements take place and can be picked up by GPS measurements. We construct an appropriate functional framework attached to a formulation suitable for the half space setting. We perform an asymptotic analysis of the solution with respect to the depth of the fault. Starting from an integral representation for the displacement field, we prove that the differences between the eigenvalues and eigenfunctions attached to the half space problem and those attached to the free space problem, is of the order of d^-2, where d is a depth parameter: intuitively, this was expected as this is also the order of decay of the derivative of the Green's function for our problem. We actually prove faster decay in case of symmetric faults. For all faults, we rigorously obtain a very useful asymptotic formula for the surface displacement, whose dominant part involves a so called seismic moment. We also provide results pertaining to the analysis of the multiplicity of the first eigenvalue in the line segment fault case. Finally we explain how we derived our numerical method for solving for dislocations on faults in the half plane. It involves integral equations combining regular and Hadamard's hypersingular integration kernels.     

Modeling of non-stationary ground motion using the mean reverting stochastic process

This paper presents a new method for modeling amplitude and frequency non-stationary earthquake ground motions using a scalar first order dynamic mean reverting stochastic differential equation driven by Brownian motion with parametric time varying coefficients. It determines the proper relationship between these time varying parametric coefficients and presents the statistical and probability distribution characteristics of the response solution. It demonstrates the applicability of the method by presenting some simulations of amplitude and frequency non-stationary earthquake ground motions. The verification of the amplitude and frequency non-stationary contents of the mean reverting stochastic ground motions is demonstrated using the Hilbert–Huang transform method. Also a corresponding interpretation between the coefficients of the proposed model and the coefficients of the usual oscillatory second order differential equation driven by white Gaussian noise is presented along with some comments how it can be applied to simulate ground motions consistent with acceleration target records such as boxcar, trapezoidal, other exponential functions, or compound and target records at source, near field, and far field distances.     

Active TLCGD control of plane asymmetric buildings under earthquake excitation

The sealed,tuned liquid column gas damper (TLCGD) with gas-spring effect extends the frequency range of application and efficiently increases the modal structural damping.Active tuned liquid column gas damper (ATLCGD) is developed for the vibration control of plane asymmetric buildings subjected to earthquake excitation,improving the performance of the passive control scheme.The active behaviour is obtained by adjusting the pressure at the end of the liquid column using a pressurised reservoir.The classical linear quadratic regulator (LQR) design is presented as a straightforward approach to optimal control.Numerical simulations indicate a significant vibration reduction of plane asymmetric buildings by active control within the strong motion of the dynamic response.     

北海市场地地震工程地质环境特征和地震设防区划

本文以地处南流江冲积成因为主的古滨海平原的地貌、松散沉积物及其工程地质特性、场地土、场地类别、场地周期等环境特点为基础, 对北海市进行了地震设防区划。将北海市划分为残丘区、台地区和阶地海滩区三个地质地貌单元和相应的三个地震设防分区, 每个地震设防区给出相应的地震影响系数。文中还对场地地震地质灾害进行了评估和预测。     

武汉地区地震效应影响研究

虽然武汉市地震影响及地震危险性的水平较低 ,强震也不是武汉市工程地质环境的主要问题 ,但在城市生命线工程和高层超高层建筑方面必须考虑单体抗震设防。而且 ,随着武汉市城市建设的不断发展 ,地震效应影响逐渐成为武汉市工程地质环境评价的一个重要因子。文章在分析了武汉地区地震动衰减规律 ,进行了地震危险性评价 ,深入研究了各土层动力参数性质的基础上 ,指出武汉地区地震地面破坏主要存在砂土液化和软土震陷两种型式及各自可能的空间分布.     

汶川地震地质灾害后效应分析

汶川地震过去3a了。3a来,大量的国内外学者对地震灾区地震地质灾害的发育分布规律、形成机理及防治对策给予了高度关注,发表了大量的研究成果。人们在关注同震地质灾害的同时,更对地震灾区今后地质灾害的发生规律及演化趋势、持续时间倾注了极大的关心,因为震后连续3a,尤其是2010年,灾区地质灾害的频率和规模均出现较震前显著增大的现象。本文收集整理了震前和震后灾区地质灾害的数据资料,尤其研究了震后3a灾区重大地质灾害的特点和发生规律,在此基础上,分析了震后灾区地质灾害可能的持续时间、演化趋势以及高风险区的范围。分析和研究结果认为,震后汶川地震灾区的地质灾害将持续20~25a; 在这段时间内,地质灾害将以4~5a一个高峰为周期,呈震荡式的衰减下降,并最终恢复到震前的水平。震后地质灾害的高风险区将出现在耿达-映秀、小鱼洞、红白-茶坪、擂鼓-陈家坝和青川东河口-窝前这5个地段上。