Existence and Uniqueness of Endemic States for the Age-structured MSEIR Epidemic Model

The existence and uniqueness of positive steady states for the age-structured MSEIR epidemic model with age-dependent transmission coefficient is considered. Threshold results for the existence of endemic states are established; under certain conditions, uniqueness is also shown.     

具有急慢性阶段的MSIS流行病模型阈值和稳定性结果

系统研究了具有急性和慢性两个阶段的MSIS流行病模型.由两节构成,第1节建立和研究了具有急慢性阶段的MSIS流行病模型;第2节在第1节的基础上建立和研究了具有慢性病病程的MSIS流行病模型.第1节的模型是四个常微分方程构成的方程组.第2节的模型既含有常微分方程,又含有偏微分方程.运用微分方程和积分方程中的理论和方法,得到了这两个模型再生数R0的表达式.证明了当R0<1时,无病平衡态是全局渐近稳定性,给出了各模型地方病平衡态的存在性和稳定性条件.     

人工神经网络在SARS疫情分析与预测中的应用

讨论人工神经网络在 SARS疫情分析与预测中的应用 .采用三层结构的反向传播网络 ( Backpropagation network,简称 BP网络 ) ,对 SARS在中国的传播与流行趋势及控制策略建立了网络模型 .并利用实际数据拟合参数 ,针对北京、山西的疫情进行了计算仿真 .结果表明 ,该网络模型算法收敛速度较快 ,预测精度很高     

SARS CoV内对照RNA病毒样颗粒的构建和表达

在SARS-CoV的核酸检测方法中,由于普遍缺乏安全、稳定、特异的内对照,而不能对样品处理、反转录、扩增以及定量检测实施全程监控。构建的病毒样核蛋白颗粒内对照,能够对SARS-CoV临床检测实施监控。本文通过克隆1.7Kb大肠杆菌噬菌体MS2的装配蛋白和壳蛋白基因以及SARS冠状病毒经过突变产生的270bp内对照片断,并将这些基因连接到载体pTrc99a上表达,进行纯化、定量分析、RT-PCR检测和稳定性试验。获得SARS内对照病毒样核蛋白颗粒,在人血清和SM缓冲液中37℃稳定性可达到30天,能抵抗核糖核酸酶降解。将内对照颗粒加入临床样本中一同检测,能够对检测的全过程(样品处理、反转录和PCR)有效进行监控,与SARS-CoV没有交叉反应。研究表明制备的该病毒样核蛋白颗粒稳定、安全、可靠,可作为SARS冠状病毒RT-PCR检测、定量分析的有效内对照参考品。     

Genomic variation and point mutations analysis of Indian COVID-19 patient samples submitted in GISAID database

Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) endemic has havoc on the world; the causative virus of the pandemic is SARS CoV-2. Pharmaceutical companies and academic institutes are in continuous efforts to identify anti-viral therapy or vaccines, but the most significant challenge faced is the highly evolving genome of SARS CoV-2, which is imparting evolutionary selective benefits to the virus. To understand the viral mutations, we have retrieved nine hundred and thirty-four samples from different states of India via the GISAID database and analyzed the frequency of all types of point mutation in all structural, non-structural proteins, and accessory factors of SARS CoV-2. Spike glycol protein, nsp3, nsp6, nsp12, N and NS3 were the most evolving proteins. High frequency point mutations were Q496P (nsp2), A380V (nsp4), A994D (nsp3), L37F (nsp6), P323L & A97V (nsp12), Q57H (ns3), D614G (S), P13L (N), R203K (N), G204R (N) and S194L (N).     

Traveling waves for a four-compartment lattice epidemic system with exposed class and standard incidence

This paper is considering the problem of traveling wave solutions (TWS) for a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) epidemic model with discrete diffusion. The threshold condition for the existence and nonexistence of TWS is obtained. More specifically, such kind of solutions are governed by the threshold number ?₀. We can find a critical wave speed c^? if ?₀ > 1, by employing the Schauder's fixed point theorem, limiting argument and two-sided Laplace transform, we confirm that there exists TWS for c > c^?, while there exists no TWS for c < c^?. We also obtain the nonexistence of TWS for ?₀ ≤ 1. At last, we give some biological explanations from the epidemiological perspective.     

SARS-CoV protease inhibitors design using virtual screening method from natural products libraries

Two natural products databases, the marine natural products database (MNPD) and the traditional Chinese medicines database (TCMD), were used to find novel structures of potent SARS-CoV protease inhibitors through virtual screening. Before the procedure, the databases were filtered by Lipinski's ROF and Xu's extension rules. The results were analyzed by statistic methods to eliminate the bias in target-based database screening toward higher molecular weight compounds for enhancing the hit rate. Eighteen lead compounds were recommended by the screening procedure. They were useful for experimental scientists in prioritizing drug candidates and studying the interaction mechanism. The binding mechanism was also analyzed between the best screening compound and the SARS protein.     

带有媒体影响上限的传染病模型研究

媒体报道对传染病的传播有着一定的影响,但它并不是影响其传播的本质因素.通过建立一个具有分段感染率的传染病模型来刻画媒体报道对传染病传播影响的饱和性.分析了系统各平衡态的局部稳定性,同时利用排除极限环的存在性证明了各平衡态的全局稳定性.最后,通过模拟来验证我们的理论分析.     

Optimal strategy of vaccination and treatment in an SIRS model with Markovian switching

Medical treatment and vaccination decisions are often sequential and uncertain. Markov decision process is an appropriate means to model and handle such stochastic dynamic decisions. This paper studies the near‐optimality of a stochastic SIRS epidemic model that incorporates vaccination and saturated treatment with regime switching. The stochastic model takes white noises and color noise into account. We first prove some priori estimates of the susceptible, infected, and recovered populations. Moreover, we establish some sufficient and necessary conditions of the near‐optimality by Pontryagin stochastic maximum principle. Our results show that the two kinds of environmental noises have great impacts on the infectious diseases. Finally, we illustrate our conclusions through numerical simulations.     

Multistrain edge‐based compartmental model on networks

Multistrain diseases, which are infected through individual contacts, pose severe public health threat nowadays. In this paper, we build competitive and mutative two‐strain edge‐based compartmental models using probability generation function (PGF) and pair approximation (PA). Both of them are ordinary differential equations. Their basic reproduction numbers and final size formulas are explicitly derived. We show that the formula gives a unique positive final epidemic size when the reproduction number is larger than unity. We further consider competitive and mutative multistrain diseases spreading models and compute their basic reproduction numbers. We perform numerical simulations that show some dynamical properties of the competitive and mutative two‐strain models.