Determination,residue and risk assessment of trifloxystrobin,trifloxystrobin acid and tebuconazole in Chinese rice consumption

A simple and rapid analytical method for the detection of trifloxystrobin, trifloxystrobin acid and tebuconazole in soil, brown rice, paddy plants and rice hulls was established and validated by liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry. Acceptable linearity (R² > 0.99), accuracy (average recoveries of 74.3–108.5%) and precision (intra- and inter-day relative standard deviations of 0.9–8.8%) were obtained using the developed determination approach. In the field trial, the half-lives of trifloxystrobin and tebuconazole in paddy plants were 5.7–8.3 days in three locations throughout China, and the terminal residue concentrations of trifloxystrobin and tebuconazole were <100 and 500 μg/kg (maximum residue limits set by China), respectively, at harvest, which indicated that, based on the recommended application procedure, trifloxystrobin and tebuconazole are safe for use on rice. The risk assessment results demonstrated that, owing to risk quotient values of both fungicides being <100%, the potential risk of trifloxystrobin and tebuconazole on rice was acceptable for Chinese consumers. These data could provide supporting information for the proper use and safety evaluation of trifloxystrobin and tebuconazole in rice.     

Existence of the uniformly minimum risk equivariant estimators of parameters in a class of normal linear models

In this paper, we study the existence of the uniformly minimum risk equivariant (UMRE) estimators of parameters in a class of normal linear models, which include the normal variance components model, the growth curve model, the extended growth curve model, and the seemingly unrelated regression equations model, and so on. The necessary and sufficient conditions are given for the existence of UMRE estimators of the estimable linear functions of regression coefficients, the covariance matrixV and (trV)^α, where α > 0 is known, in the models under an affine group of transformations for quadratic losses and matrix losses, respectively. Under the (extended) growth curve model and the seemingly unrelated regression equations model, the conclusions given in literature for estimating regression coefficients can be derived by applying the general results in this paper, and the sufficient conditions for non-existence of UMRE estimators ofV and tr(V) are expanded to be necessary and sufficient conditions. In addition, the necessary and sufficient conditions that there exist UMRE estimators of parameters in the variance components model are obtained for the first time.     

Signed graphs for portfolio analysis in risk management

We introduce the notion of structural balance for signed graphsin the context of portfolio analysis. A portfolio of securitiescan be represented as a signed graph with the nodes denotingthe securities and the edges representing the correlation betweenthe securities. With signed graphs, the characteristics of aportfolio from a risk management perspective can be uncoveredfor analysis purposes. It is shown that a portfolio characterizedby a signed graph of positive and negative edges that is structurallybalanced is characteristically more predictable. Investors whoundertake a portfolio position with all positively correlatedsecurities do so with the intention to speculate on the upside(or downside). If the portfolio consists of negative edges andis balanced, then it is likely that the position has a hedgingdisposition within it. On the other hand, an unbalanced signedgraph is representative of an investment portfolio which ischaracteristically unpredictable.     

信用担保风险的模糊综合评审研究

信用担保机构是连接银行和企业的桥梁，对于改善企业融资环境和拓展银行业务具有重要意义，信用担保风险的评审是担保机构能否生存及有效运行的关键。信用风险的评审机制主观性强，对担保项目进行客观，公正的评审比较困难。本采用模糊数学中的综合判别方法，全面考虑风险评审所涵盖的各种风险指标及其重要度，建立了定性分析与定量分析方法相结合的信用担保风险综合评审模型，为担保机构提供了一种相对科学、客观的评审方法。     

A MODEL OF TROPICAL MARINE RESERVE‐FISHERY LINKAGES

ABSTRACT. The excessive and unsustainable exploitation of our marine resources has led to the promotion of marine reserves as a fisheries management tool. Marine reserves, areas in which fishing is restricted or prohibited, can offer opportunities for the recovery of exploited stock and fishery enhancement. In this paper we examine the contribution of fully protected tropical marine reserves to fishery enhancement by modeling marine reserve‐fishery linkages. The consequences of reserve establishment on the long‐run equilibrium fish biomass and fishery catch levels are evaluated. In contrast to earlier models this study highlights the roles of both adult (and juvenile) fish migration and larval dispersal between the reserve and fishing grounds by employing a spawner‐recruit model. Uniform larval dispersal, uniform larval retention and complete larval retention combined with zero, moderate and high fish migration scenarios are analyzed in turn. The numerical simulations are based on Mombasa Marine National Park, Kenya, a fully protected coral reef marine reserve comprising approximately 30% of former fishing grounds. Simulation results suggest that the establishment of a fully protected marine reserve will always lead to an increase in total fish biomass. If the fishery is moderately to heavily exploited, total fishery catch will be greater with the reserve in all scenarios of fish and larval movement. If the fishery faces low levels of exploitation, catches can be optimized without a reserve but with controlled fishing effort. With high fish migration from the reserve, catches are optimized with the reserve. The optimal area of the marine reserve depends on the exploitation rate in the neighboring fishing grounds. For example, if exploitation is maintained at 40%, the ‘optimal’ reserve size would be 10%. If the rate increases to 50%, then the reserve needs to be 30% of the management area in order to maximize catches. However, even in lower exploitation fisheries (below 40%), a small reserve (up to 20%) provides significantly higher gains in fish biomass than losses in catch. Marine reserves are a valuable fisheries management tool. To achieve maximum fishery benefits they should be complemented by fishing effort controls.     

Estimation in the continuous time mover‐stayer model with an application to bond ratings migration

The usual tool for modelling bond ratings migration is a discrete, time‐homogeneous Markov chain. Such model assumes that all bonds are homogeneous with respect to their movement behaviour among rating categories and that the movement behaviour does not change over time. However, among recognized sources of heterogeneity in ratings migration is age of a bond (time elapsed since issuance). It has been observed that young bonds have a lower propensity to change ratings, and thus to default, than more seasoned bonds. The aim of this paper is to introduce a continuous, time‐non‐homogeneous model for bond ratings migration, which also incorporates a simple form of population heterogeneity. The specific form of heterogeneity postulated by the proposed model appears to be suitable for modelling the effect of age of a bond on its propensity to change ratings. This model, called a mover–stayer model, is an extension of a Markov chain. This paper derives the maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters of a continuous time mover–stayer model based on a sample of independent continuously monitored histories of the process, and develops the likelihood ratio statistic for discriminating between the Markov chain and the mover–stayer model. The methods are illustrated using a sample of rating histories of young corporate issuers. For these issuers the default probabilities predicted by the Markov chain and mover–stayer models are different. In particular for 1–4 years old bonds the mover–stayer model estimates substantially lower default probabilities from rating C than a Markov chain. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

两个安全第一思想模型的比较分析

针对投资者可能的投资需求确立了基于安全第一思想下两个相近的投资目标:1、极大化投资末期总收益率超过给定水平α的概率;2、极小化投资末期总收益率与给定水平α的距离.并分别就这两个目标建立了优化决策模型,得到了模型解析解,最后对两个模型结果进行了比较分析和经济解释.     

Stochastic analysis in life office management: applications to large annuity portfolios

The paper deals with the riskiness analysis for a large portfolio of life annuities. By means of the limiting distribution of the present value of the portfolio, in the first part of the paper a model for evaluating the investment and the projection risks is presented. In the second part, with regard to the investment risk's effects, the insolvency risk is measured considering the cumulative probability distribution function of the discounted average cost per policy. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

多心理账户下机构投资者的风险优化研究

从决策有限理性角度，引入行为金融理论于机构投资风险优化系统，对多心理账户条件下机构投资的风险优化设计进行了研究。以Friedman和Savage之谜为释例，对机构投资风险优化中的诸多非标准金融异像进行了解释。以Shefrin和Statman行为证券组合理论为核心，建立了多心理账户条件下机构投资的风险优化模型，为机构投资的风险优化实践提供了一种量化分析工具。     

Desorption behavior of a surfactant in a linear low‐density polyethylene blend at elevated temperatures

The desorption behavior of a surfactant in a linear low‐density polyethylene (LLDPE) blend at elevated temperatures of 50, 70, and 80 °C was studied with Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. The composition of the LLDPE blend was 70:30 LLDPE/low‐density polyethylene. Three different specimens (II, III, and IV) were prepared with various compositions of a small molecular penetrant, sorbitan palmitate (SPAN‐40), and a migration controller, poly(ethylene acrylic acid) (EAA), in the LLDPE blend. The calculated diffusion coefficient (D) of SPAN‐40 in specimens II, III, and IV, between 50 and 80 °C, varied from 1.74 × 10^?11 to 6.79 × 10^?11 cm²/s, from 1.10 × 10^?11 to 5.75 × 10^?11 cm²/s, and from 0.58 × 10^?11 to 4.75 × 10^?11 cm²/s, respectively. In addition, the calculated activation energies (E_D) of specimens II, III, and IV, from the plotting of ln D versus 1/T between 50 and 80 °C, were 42.9, 52.7, and 65.6 kJ/mol, respectively. These values were different from those obtained between 25 and 50 °C and were believed to have been influenced by the interference of Tinuvin (a UV stabilizer) at elevated temperatures higher than 50 °C. Although the desorption rate of SPAN‐40 increased with the temperature and decreased with the EAA content, the observed spectral behavior did not depend on the temperature and time. For all specimens stored over 50 °C, the peak at 1739 cm^?1 decreased in a few days and subsequently increased with a peak shift toward 1730 cm^?1. This arose from the carbonyl stretching vibration of Tinuvin, possibly because of oxidation or degradation at elevated temperatures. In addition, the incorporation of EAA into the LLDPE blend suppressed the desorption rate of SPAN‐40 and retarded the appearance of the 1730 cm^?1 peak. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part B: Polym Phys 42: 1114–1126, 2004