基于随机时间序列法的新疆麻疹发病率预测

用2004～2010年新疆麻疹月发病率数据分析建立了ARIMA(0,2,1)(0,1,1)~(12)时间序列模型,该模型能够较好的预测短期内新疆麻疹的流行情况,对麻疹的流行情况进行预警,提前做好预防控制的准备.     

麻疹病毒(Nepal毒株)H基因的序列测定及其表达

提取麻疹病毒Ｎｅｐａｌ毒株的ＲＮＡ并利用逆转录ＰＣＲ方法特异性地扩增血凝素基因（Ｈｅｍａｇｇｌｕｔｉｎｉｎ）．将Ｈ基因克隆并测定序列，结果表明新毒株的Ｈ基因与标准疫苗毒株Ｅｄｍｏｎｓｔｏｎ之间存在较多重要的基因变异，两者的同源性为９８．１７％．将Ｈ基因克隆到表达载体ｐＣＤ－ＳＲα中并利用电转染法转染ＣＯＳ－７细胞，利用血凝实验检测了Ｈ蛋白的表达及功能     

Approaches to the space-time modelling of infectious disease behaviour

A new approach to the space-time modelling of infectious diseasesis considered. A modulated heterogeneous Poisson process withintensity defined as a function of a two-dimensional susceptibilityfield is proposed. The model is fitted to a measles epidemicusing a proportional hazards approximation.     

Effects of population density on the spread of disease

The effect of population density on the epidemic outbreak of measles or measles-like infectious diseases was evaluated. Using average-number contacts with susceptible individuals per infectious individual as a measure of population density, an analytical model for the distribution of the nonstationary stochastic process of susceptible contact is presented. A 5-dimensional lattice simulation model of disease spread was used to evaluate the effects of four different population densities. A zero-inflated Poisson probability model was used to quantify the nonstationarity of the contact rate in the stochastic epidemic process. Analysis of the simulation results identified a decrease in a susceptible contact rate from four to three, resulted in a dramatic effect on the distribution of contacts over time, the magnitude of the outbreak, and, ultimately, the spread of disease. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Mathematical model for assessing the impact of vaccination and treatment on measles transmission dynamics

A deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of measles in a population with fraction of vaccinated individuals is designed and rigorously analyzed. The model with standard incidence exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease‐free equilibrium coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity. This phenomenon can be removed if either measles vaccine is assumed to be perfect or disease related mortality rates are negligible. In the latter case, the disease‐free equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Furthermore, the model has a unique endemic equilibrium whenever the reproduction threshold exceeds unity. This equilibrium is shown, using a nonlinear Lyapunov function of Goh‐Volterra type, to be globally asymptotically stable for a special case.     

麻疹病毒引起肝脏损害的临床分析

通过对412例麻疹病毒引起肝脏损害的临床分析。肝功能检测项目以AST、TBA、LDH升高最明显，肝脏损害占麻疹病例总数的89.8%，肝脏作为麻疹最重要的病变部位之一。肝功能应列为麻疹的常规检测项目和临床治疗的重要指标。