市场化改革背景下养老机构服务供给博弈研究

考虑政府补贴、市场化程度、养老机构服务成本、老年人偏好等因素,构建了完全国有化、公私并存的半市场化和完全市场化三种情形下公办和民办养老机构之间的两阶段博弈模型,比较分析了市场化程度对养老机构服务价格制定和服务水平选择的影响,实证讨论了各参数变化对养老机构收益及社会福利的影响。研究表明:完全市场化机制会降低养老机构服务质量,完全国有化机制会陷入社会福利陷阱,探索公私并存的最佳市场化水平才能更好地提高社会福利;适度推进市场化改革,提高养老机构服务水平,降低民办养老机构服务成本,适度提高对民办养老机构的补贴,将有效缓解公办和民办养老机构的不公平竞争;提高老年人支付能力,推进养老机构供给侧结构性改革,将保障机构养老服务的有效供给,促进养老服务业的健康有序发展。     

中国的百岁老人研究Ⅱ.百岁老人的死亡率、生存率和发展趋势

根据全国人口普查资料,用指数函数拟合法计算了中国百岁老人的死亡率和生存率,得出中国人口的最高自然寿限为120岁,并预测到2010年中国百岁老人绝对数将达4万多人,届时每百万人口中将有30位百岁老人,比2000年增加1倍以上。     

中国的百岁老人研究Ⅲ.百岁老人聚居区——中国长寿之乡的成因和评定

探讨了中国长寿之乡的成因,提出了评定中国长寿之乡的四项指标和六项衡量标准。主张中国长寿之乡应由有资质的学术团体经过认真调查和核实后认定,被命名的长寿之乡应是相当于县(市)或大城市区一级以上的地域,总人口应在10万人以上;该地区每百万人口中应有70位以上百岁老人;并应有反映后备力量和发展速度的指标。     

在役老旧拱桥的极限承载力分析

在役老旧拱桥的承载力是人们关心的热点问题之一,某些桥梁随着使用年限的不断增加,拱肋以及其他结构部件变形甚至破坏,其承载能力削弱问题会变得尤为突出．以宁波市灵桥为例详细分析了其极限承载力,分析过程中考虑了材料和几何双重非线性,以及涉及到灵桥由于战争、船体碰撞、行车事故和其他意外事故引起的拱肋变形和扭曲情况．计算结果表明：拱肋面外的初始变形极大地削弱了灵桥的极限承载能力;要准确评估该桥的极限承载能力,必须考虑材料非线性和几何非线性的影响．     

Cytoprotective Potential of Aged Garlic Extract (AGE) and Its Active Constituent,S-allyl-l-cysteine,in Presence of Carvedilol during Isoproterenol-Induced Myocardial Disturbance and Metabolic Derangements in Rats

This study was conducted to determine the potential interaction of aged garlic extract (AGE) with carvedilol (CAR), as well as to investigate the role of S-allyl-l-cysteine (SAC), an active constituent of AGE, in rats with isoproterenol (ISO)-induced myocardial dysfunction. At the end of three weeks of treatment with AGE (2 and 5 mL/kg) or SAC (13.1 and 32.76 mg/kg), either alone or along with CAR (10 mg/kg) in the respective groups of animals, ISO was administered subcutaneously to induce myocardial damage. Myocardial infarction (MI) diagnostic predictor enzymes, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and creatinine kinase (CK-MB), were measured in both serum and heart tissue homogenates (HTH). Superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase, and thiobarbituric acid reactive species (TBARS) were estimated in HTH. When compared with other groups, the combined therapy of high doses of AGE and SAC given alone or together with CAR caused a significant decrease in serum LDH and CK-MB activities. Further, significant rise in the LDH and CK-MB activities in HTH was noticed in the combined groups of AGE and SAC with CAR. It was also observed that both doses of AGE and SAC significantly increased endogenous antioxidants in HTH. Furthermore, histopathological observations corroborated the biochemical findings. The cytoprotective potential of SAC and AGE were dose-dependent, and SAC was more potent than AGE. The protection offered by aged garlic may be attributed to SAC. Overall, the results indicated that a high dose of AGE and its constituent SAC, when combined with carvedilol, has a synergistic effect in preventing morphological and physiological changes in the myocardium during ISO-induced myocardial damage.     

中国的百岁老人研究Ⅰ.百岁老人的地区分布、性别差异和民族特征

利用全国人口普查资料及部分地区的调查资料,统计分析了百岁老人的百岁比和性别比。结果显示,中国百岁老人存在明显的地区分布不均衡性、性别差异的可变化性,以及民族长寿的特异性。我国至少有4个省和自治区的百岁老人数男性多于女性,有13个民族的百岁老人比例达到联合国规定的长寿之乡标准,这些民族可称作长寿民族。     

垃圾衍生燃料热解半焦气化过程中HCl与H2S析出规律

通过水平管式气化炉和化学吸收法,对比研究了矿化垃圾热解半焦（ARC）和常规垃圾热解半焦（NRC）在水蒸气和CO₂气化过程中腐蚀性气体（HCl和H₂S）的析出特性,考察了气化温度、气化介质类型和流量对腐蚀性气体析出特性的影响。当气化温度升至950℃,ARC在水蒸气气化过程中的碳气化率、HCl和H₂S产率分别为66.1%、100%和74.9%,而其在CO₂气化过程中的碳气化率、HCl和H₂S产率分别为77.8%、100%和2.9%;NRC在水蒸气气化过程中的碳气化率、HCl和H₂S产率分别为98.8%、100%和53.7%,而其在CO₂气化过程中的碳气化率、HCl和H₂S产率分别为100%、96.2%和10.3%。以NRC为原料,考察了水蒸气和CO₂流量对其HCl和CO₂析出特性的影响。NRC的HCl和H₂S产率均随水蒸气流量增加而增加,但当水碳比大于等于3.3时,其促进作用不再明显。NRC的HCl产率随CO₂流量的增加而增加,而H₂S产率随CO₂流量的增加而减小。     

西安市某辖区2～6岁儿童全血样品微量元素含量状况调查

摘要对西安市某辖区妇幼保健站及多家幼儿园920名2～6岁身体健康儿童的全血样品进行微量元素检测,统计得到该区域正常儿童微量元素的含量范围,为准确了解西安地区某区域2-6岁正常儿童体内微量元素正常含量提供了参考数据。     

矿化垃圾衍生燃料热解过程HCl与H_2S析出规律

采用热重红外质谱联用法(TG-FTIR-MS)和水平管式热解炉/化学吸收法,对比研究了矿化垃圾(ARDF)和常规垃圾(NRDF)衍生燃料热解过程腐蚀性气体(HCl和H_2S)的析出特性,分析了热解温度及热解类型对析出行为的影响并对热解固相产物腐蚀性元素的赋存特点进行了考察。结果表明,慢速热解过程,两者腐蚀性气体的析出特征温度区间相似,均分为两段,HCl析出区间为200-400和420-500℃,H_2S析出区间为230-370和380-670℃,而ARDF表现为较低的HCl和H_2S析出率;快速热解过程,两者腐蚀性气体的析出受热解温度影响较大,且规律有所差别:随热解温度的升高,HCl析出率呈S型变化(先高后低再高),而H_2S析出率呈正相关,均在850℃达到峰值,其中,HCl析出率分别为48.8%(ARDF)和29.4%(NRDF),H_2S析出率分别为6.8%(ARDF)和44.6%(NRDF)。因腐蚀性气体差异性的析出规律,两类垃圾热解固相产物腐蚀性元素的赋存与热解温度相关,ARDF的Cl和S元素最高赋存率分别可达59.4%(450℃)和84.3%(750℃),而NRDF的Cl和S元素最高赋存率分别仅为36.7%(850℃)和15.2%(650℃)。说明在合适的热解条件下,相比NRDF,ARDF腐蚀性元素不易释放,倾向于固相赋存,此为不同垃圾衍生燃料的热利用提供了一定依据和参考。     

Thermal decomposition behaviour of cobalt(II)-picolyl-terminated poly(dimethylsiloxane)

Thermal, chemical and rheological properties of ultraviolet aged asphalt binder were characterized by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) and dynamic shear rheometer (DSR), respectively. Asphalt binder samples were made with different film thickness (50, 100, 200 and 500 μm) and suffered different ageing time (0, 48, 96 and 144 h), at a certain UV radiant intensity of 20 w m^–2 in a self-made accelerated ageing oven. The results indicate that the UV light ageing would lead to the improvement of thermal behavior and the growth of the glass transition temperature of asphalt binder. This type of ageing can be also reflected from the FTIR spectra in terms of the characteristic peaks of the carbonyl groups and sulphoxides. The UV light ageing can change some rheological parameters of asphalt binder, such as complex modulus and phase angle. The ageing degrees of asphalt binder by this type of ageing test are mainly related to the ageing time and film thickness of the sample.