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Scaling analysis of the magnitude series (volatile series) has been proposed recently to identify possible non-linear/multifractal signatures in the given data [Y. Ashkenazy, et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 86 (2001) 1900; Y. Ashkenazy, et al. Physica A 323 (2003) 19; T. Kalisky, Y. Ashkenazy, S. Havlin. Phys. Rev. E 72 (2005) 011913]. In this article, correlations of volatile series generated from stationary first-order linear feedback process with Gaussian and non-Gaussian innovations are investigated. While volatile correlations corresponding to Gaussian innovations exhibited uncorrelated behavior across all time scales, those of non-Gaussian innovations showed significant deviation from uncorrelated behavior even at large time scales. The results presented raise the intriguing question whether non-Gaussian innovations can be sufficient to realize long-range volatile correlations. 相似文献
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One of the key parameters in modeling capital budgeting decisions for investments with embedded options is the project volatility. Most often, however, there is no market or historical data available to provide an accurate estimate for this parameter. A common approach to estimating the project volatility in such instances is to use a Monte Carlo simulation where one or more sources of uncertainty are consolidated into a single stochastic process for the project cash flows, from which the volatility parameter can be determined. Nonetheless, the simulation estimation method originally suggested for this purpose systematically overstates the project volatility, which can result in incorrect option values and non-optimal investment decisions. Examples that illustrate this issue numerically have appeared in several recent papers, along with revised estimation methods that address this problem. In this article, we extend that work by showing analytically the source of the overestimation bias and the adjustment necessary to remove it. We then generalize this development for the cases of levered cash flows and non-constant volatility. In each case, we use an example problem to show how a revised estimation methodology can be applied. 相似文献
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We test several non-linear characteristics of Asian stock markets, which indicates the failure of efficient market hypothesis and shows the essence of fractal of the financial markets. In addition, by using the method of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to investigate the long range correlation of the volatility in the stock markets, we find that the crossover phenomena exist in the results of DFA. Further, in the region of small volatility, the scaling behavior is more complicated; in the region of large volatility, the scaling exponent is close to 0.5, which suggests the market is more efficient. All these results may indicate the possibility of characteristic multifractal scaling behaviors of the financial markets. 相似文献
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Commodity futures have long been used to facilitate risk management and inventory stabilization. The study of commodity futures prices has attracted much attention in the literature because they are highly volatile and because commodities represent a large proportion of the export value in many developing countries. Previous research has found apparently contradictory findings about the presence of long memory or more generally, long-range dependence. This note investigates the nature of long-range dependence in the volatility of 14 energy and agricultural commodity futures price series using the improved Hurst coefficient (H) estimator of Abry, Teyssière and Veitch. This estimator is motivated by the ability of wavelets to detect self-similarity and also enables a test for the stability of H. The results show evidence of long-range dependence for all 14 commodities and of a non-stationary H for 9 of 14 commodities. 相似文献
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We use the information in intraday data to forecast the volatility of crude oil at a horizon of 1–66 days using a variety of models relying on the decomposition of realized variance in its positive or negative (semivariances) part and its continuous or discontinuous part (jumps). We show the importance of these decompositions in predictive (in-sample) regressions using a number of specifications. Nevertheless, an important empirical finding comes from an out-of-sample analysis which unambiguously shows the limited interest of considering these components. Overall, our results indicates that a simple autoregressive specification mimicking long memory and using past realized variances as predictors does not perform significantly worse than more sophisticated models which include the various components of realized variance. 相似文献
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We propose the Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) to detect and locate multiple volatility shifts. Our Gaussian QMLE is shown to be consistent under suitable conditions and the rate of convergence is provided. It is also shown that the binary segmentation procedure provides a consistent estimation for the number of volatility shifts. 相似文献
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This work is concerned with tests on structural breaks in the spot volatility process of a general Itô semimartingale based on discrete observations contaminated with i.i.d. microstructure noise. We construct a consistent test building up on infill asymptotic results for certain functionals of spectral spot volatility estimates. A weak limit theorem is established under the null hypothesis relying on extreme value theory. We prove consistency of the test and of an associated estimator for the change point. A simulation study illustrates the finite-sample performance of the method and efficiency gains compared to a skip-sampling approach. 相似文献
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上海股市波动的预测方式和模型 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
刘凤芹 《数学的实践与认识》2004,34(10):22-26
探讨基于 SV类模型的上海股市波动的预测方式和模型问题 .比较了 SV( stochastic volatility)类模型 (包括基本 SV模型和 ASV模型 )在两种不同方式下的预测效果 ,并将基本 SV类模型的预测效果与 ASV模型 ,以及其他常用模型做了比较 .结果表明 :SV类模型在两种预测方式下的预测效果存在一定的差异 ;基本 SV模型对于上海股市具有较强的预测能力 ;ASV模型的预测效果不理想 . 相似文献
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